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Atletico Nacional crestAtletico Nacional
v
Deportivo Pasto crestDeportivo Pasto

Primera A | Sun 11 Oct, 02:15

Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico Nacional hosts Deportivo Pasto in a Primera A clash where the home side holds a strong league position but faces a resilient opponent fighting to avoid relegation. Deportivo Pasto's recent form shows defensive solidity and tactical discipline, making them tough to beat. Atletico Nacional's attacking threat is notable, yet Pasto's organized approach and counter-attacking potential set up a tactical battle with high stakes for both teams. The match promises a cautious start with potential for strategic adjustments as the game progresses.

BT4Y best bet

Deportivo Pasto or Draw

  • Deportivo Pasto has earned 8 points recently, matching Atletico Nacional's form but with a stronger defensive record.
  • Atletico Nacional averages 16.8 shots per game, indicating offensive pressure, but Pasto's defense concedes fewer goals on average.
  • Deportivo Pasto ranks 18th in the league, motivating a resilient performance to secure points away from home.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 2.7 goals, suggesting a moderate scoring environment with chances for both sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Deportivo Pasto or Draw with a 66.4% chance, highlighting Pasto's defensive resilience and Atletico Nacional's recent inconsistency in converting chances. The is strong at 43.3%, reflecting the market underestimating Pasto's ability to avoid defeat. Pasto's disciplined defensive stats and Atletico Nacional's moderate goal-scoring rate support a cautious game where a draw or away non-loss is plausible. No data limitations affect , making this a solid value pick with standard stake guidance.

Model Chance58.2% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.7 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge58.2% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.7 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormPasto concedes 1.0 goals per game
Positive
Attacking PressureAtletico Nacional averages 16.8 shots per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Deportivo Pasto's defensive organization and recent form make the double chance a sensible choice against Atletico Nacional's attacking but inconsistent side. Pasto's motivation to secure points away and Atletico Nacional's conversion challenges suggest a match where avoiding defeat is a realistic target for Pasto.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome tactical and statistical analysis

“Deportivo Pasto's disciplined defensive setup and Atletico Nacional's moderate finishing efficiency create a scenario where Pasto or Draw is a tactically sound and statistically supported bet.”

Key Data Signals

Deportivo Pasto or Draw evidence

Deportivo Pasto has earned 8 points recently, matching Atletico Nacional's form but with a stronger defensive record.

Atletico Nacional averages 16.8 shots per game, indicating offensive pressure, but Pasto's defense concedes fewer goals on average.

Deportivo Pasto ranks 18th in the league, motivating a resilient performance to secure points away from home.

Head-to-head meetings average 2.7 goals, suggesting a moderate scoring environment with chances for both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Deportivo Pasto or Draw notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently, suggesting a balanced tempo with chances for goals but not an overly open game.
  • This trend supports expectations of a controlled match with potential for limited scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atletico Nacional1.4
Avg goals scored
Deportivo Pasto0.8
Atletico Nacional1.2
Avg goals conceded
Deportivo Pasto1
Atletico Nacional60%
BTTS rate
Deportivo Pasto20%
Atletico Nacional40%
Over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Pasto40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.7 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Recent form data shows both teams have a 40% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, with Atletico Nacional scoring 1.4 goals per game and Pasto 0.8. Pasto's low BTTS rate of 20% contrasts with Atletico's 60%, suggesting a match leaning towards fewer goals and a lower likelihood of both teams scoring, supporting a cautious game with limited scoring.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 44% · edge +8.9 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Deportivo Pasto Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 30%
6.8
Check odds @ 6.8
Deportivo Pasto to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
13
Check odds @ 13
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Atletico Nacional Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
The 58.2% for Deportivo Pasto or Draw sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+12.7 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atletico Nacional

DWDLW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
09 Oct 2026H Deportes Tolima0-0
01 Oct 2026H Junior3-1
25 Sep 2026H Millonarios1-1
21 Sep 2026A Llaneros0-2
17 Sep 2026A Internacional de Bogota3-2

Deportivo Pasto

DLWWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
04 Oct 2026H Fortaleza FC0-0
26 Sep 2026A Chico0-3
20 Sep 2026H Once Caldas1-0
15 Sep 2026A America de Cali1-0
06 Sep 2026A Cucuta2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
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Deportivo Pasto Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 30%
6.8
Check odds @ 6.8
Deportivo Pasto to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
13
Check odds @ 13
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
Atletico Nacional Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Atletico Nacional to WinBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Both teams have collected 8 points recently, but Deportivo Pasto's defensive solidity stands out with only 1 goal conceded per game compared to Atletico Nacional's 1.2. Atletico's higher scoring rate is offset by Pasto's ability to limit chances, indicating a form balance that favors a cautious approach and supports the double chance on Pasto or Draw.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Atletico Nacional Over 2.5
40%Deportivo Pasto Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently, suggesting a balanced tempo with chances for goals but not an overly open game. This trend supports expectations of a controlled match with potential for limited scoring opportunities.

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