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Atletico-MG crestAtletico-MG
v
Coritiba crestCoritiba

Serie A | Sat 17 Oct, 22:30

Atletico-MG v Coritiba Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 09:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico-MG and Coritiba meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Atletico-MG, ranked 7th, have scored 1.8 goals per game recently while conceding one, whereas Coritiba, 11th, have struggled defensively, conceding three per game despite scoring once on average. Atletico-MG’s recent form is stronger with 11 points from their last matches compared to Coritiba’s 2 points, but Coritiba’s attacking players like Pedro Rocha and Breno Lopes pose a genuine threat. This fixture promises open play and goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Atletico-MG scores in 80% of recent matches, Coritiba in 60%.
  • Coritiba concedes 3 goals per game on average, Atletico-MG concedes 1.
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates: Atletico-MG 80%, Coritiba 60%.
  • Average shots per game: Atletico-MG 17, Coritiba 13, indicating attacking pressure.
  • H2H average goals over last 10 matches is 2.3, supporting goal-scoring likelihood.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 76% chance for both teams to score, well above the 52.4% implied by current , indicating strong value. Atletico-MG’s consistent attacking output combined with Coritiba’s defensive frailties and capable forwards like Pedro Rocha and Breno Lopes underpin this. Both sides have high BTTS rates recently, and the average goals in their head-to-head matches support an open game with goals at both ends. The data quality is solid with no limitations, reinforcing in this pick.

Model Chance67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Atletico-MG BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Coritiba BTTS Rate60%
Positive
H2H Average Goals2.3 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, making both teams to score a logical choice. Atletico-MG’s stronger form and Coritiba’s capable forwards suggest goals at both ends. The statistical evidence from recent matches and player performances supports this outcome as a likely scenario.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This fixture features two sides with offensive strengths but defensive inconsistencies, making a both teams to score bet a compelling angle given the attacking talent and recent trends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Atletico-MG scores in 80% of recent matches, Coritiba in 60%.

Coritiba concedes 3 goals per game on average, Atletico-MG concedes 1.

Both teams have high BTTS rates: Atletico-MG 80%, Coritiba 60%.

Average shots per game: Atletico-MG 17, Coritiba 13, indicating attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.3, indicating a moderately high-scoring fixture historically.
  • Both teams’ recent matches show a tendency towards games with multiple goals, driven by open play and defensive lapses, suggesting Over 2.5 goals is a realistic trend in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atletico-MG1.8
Avg goals scored
Coritiba1
Atletico-MG1
Avg goals conceded
Coritiba3
Atletico-MG80%
BTTS rate
Coritiba60%
Atletico-MG60%
Over 2.5 goals
Coritiba80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have strong recent BTTS rates—Atletico-MG at 80% and Coritiba at 60%—and their head-to-head average of 2.3 goals per match supports an open game with goals from both sides. Atletico-MG’s 1.8 goals per game and Coritiba’s ability to score despite defensive struggles underline the goal-scoring potential in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Atletico-MG to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Coritiba Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Coritiba to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
The 67.4% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Atletico-MG show a 80% BTTS rate and Coritiba show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atletico-MG

WDWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
11 Oct 2026H Santos2-1
09 Oct 2026A Atletico Paranaense2-2
03 Oct 2026H RB Bragantino1-0
19 Sep 2026H Chapecoense-sc1-1
12 Sep 2026H Fluminense3-1

Coritiba

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
12 Oct 2026H Botafogo1-1
09 Oct 2026A Fluminense0-4
20 Sep 2026A Vasco DA Gama0-5
12 Sep 2026H Atletico Paranaense3-3
06 Sep 2026H Mirassol1-2
Best odds for this sectionAtletico-MG to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +8.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Coritiba Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Coritiba to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4
Check odds @ 4
Atletico-MG’s recent form shows 11 points gained with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, reflecting balanced attacking and defensive play. Coritiba’s form is weaker with just 2 points and 1 goal scored per game but concedes 3, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that increase the likelihood of both teams scoring.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Atletico-MG Over 2.5
80%Coritiba Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.3, indicating a moderately high-scoring fixture historically. Both teams’ recent matches show a tendency towards games with multiple goals, driven by open play and defensive lapses, suggesting Over 2.5 goals is a realistic trend in this encounter.

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