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Atletico-MGv
BotafogoSerie A | Sun 10 May, 20:00
Atletico-MG v Botafogo Stats
BT4Y best bet
Botafogo to Win
- At 3.3, Botafogo to Win is priced at roughly 30% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 60%, so the current line is showing a +29.2-point value edge.
- Atletico-MG have a recent record of 2W-0D-3L, while Botafogo come in at 2W-2D-1L across the same last-five lens.
- The result profile supports the Botafogo to Win angle: Atletico-MG have taken 2 wins from their last 5 matches, averaging 1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded.
- The result profile supports the Botafogo to Win angle: Botafogo have taken 2 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 100% of that sample.
- If the bookmaker is still close to 3.3, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 30% · edge +29.2 pts
3.3
Bet HERE @ 3.3Load more odds for this section
Key match trends
A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.
60%Atletico-MG Over 2.5
100%Botafogo Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Recent form
Results and scoring shape from recent games.
Atletico-MG
WLLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 recordLast 105W 0D 5L
03 May 2026A Cruzeiro3-1
27 Apr 2026H Flamengo0-4
19 Apr 2026A Coritiba0-2
12 Apr 2026A Santos0-1
05 Apr 2026H Atletico Paranaense2-1
Botafogo
LDWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 recordLast 104W 2D 4L
02 May 2026H Remo1-2
25 Apr 2026H Internacional2-2
18 Apr 2026A Chapecoense-sc4-1
12 Apr 2026H Coritiba2-2
05 Apr 2026A Vasco DA Gama2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 30% · edge +29.2 pts
3.3
Bet HERE @ 3.3Load more odds for this section
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Goal-market data and related prices.
Atletico-MG1
Avg goals scoredBotafogo2.2
Atletico-MG1.8
Avg goals concededBotafogo1.6
Atletico-MG40%
BTTS rateBotafogo100%
Atletico-MG60%
Over 2.5 goalsBotafogo100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 56% · edge +20.4 pts
1.8
Bet HERE @ 1.8Load more odds for this section
Head-to-head
Recent meetings and related markets.
4Atletico-MG wins
1Draws
5Botafogo wins
20 Sep 2025Botafogo v Atletico-MG1-0
20 Apr 2025Atletico-MG v Botafogo1-0
30 Nov 2024Atletico-MG v Botafogo1-3
21 Nov 2024Atletico-MG v Botafogo0-0
08 Jul 2024Botafogo v Atletico-MG3-0
17 Sep 2023Atletico-MG v Botafogo1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 30% · edge +29.2 pts
3.3
Bet HERE @ 3.3Load more odds for this section
Corners, cards and shots
Detailed stat markets where available.
Atletico-MG5.2
Avg corners forBotafogo5
Atletico-MG9.4
Avg total cornersBotafogo9.4
Atletico-MG2
Avg yellow cardsBotafogo2
Atletico-MG14.6
Avg shotsBotafogo16.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 55% · edge +2 pts
1.82
Bet HERE @ 1.82Load more odds for this section
Player stats
Player props and player-level signals.
Load more player angles
Álvaro Montoro To Assist / Key Pass AngleÁlvaro Montoro · 3 assists · 1.64 key passes/90
68/100
Bet HERE
DaniloBotafogo · Midfielder
Goal threat70/100
Shots /901.85
SOT /901.01
Matheus MartinsBotafogo · Attacker
Goal threat63/100
Shots /902.32
SOT /901.44
DuduAtletico-MG · Midfielder
Goal threat63/100
Shots /902.95
SOT /901.88
CauaAtletico-MG · Attacker
Goal threat44/100
Shots /903.1
SOT /903.1
ArturBotafogo · Attacker
Goal threat58/100
Shots /902.36
SOT /901.88
K. BarriaBotafogo · Attacker
Goal threat20/100
Shots /903.33
SOT /900.56
YthalloBotafogo · Defender
Goal threat2/100
Shots /900
SOT /900
AllanBotafogo · Midfielder
Goal threat6/100
Shots /900.19
SOT /900
Season team stats
Serie A
Atletico-MG15
PlayedBotafogo14
Atletico-MG1.2
Avg goals forBotafogo1.9
Atletico-MG1.4
Avg goals againstBotafogo1.9
Atletico-MG3
Clean sheetsBotafogo1
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 30% · edge +29.2 pts
3.3
Bet HERE @ 3.3Load more odds for this section
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Botafogo | 18 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 |
| 13 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -3 |
Next step
Betting context
Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.
