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Atlas crestAtlas
v
Puebla crestPuebla

Liga MX | Sun 25 Oct, 23:00

Atlas v Puebla Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atlas hosts Puebla in a Liga MX clash where recent form and attacking intent suggest a home advantage. Atlas has collected 8 points recently with a higher goal output and more shots per game, reflecting a proactive approach. Puebla's lower scoring rate and fewer shots indicate a more cautious style, compounded by their 13th place standing. The match could hinge on Atlas's ability to capitalize on their offensive momentum and home conditions, while Puebla will seek to disrupt and counterattack effectively.

BT4Y best bet

Atlas to Win

  • Atlas has earned 8 points in recent matches compared to Puebla's 3, showing better form.
  • Atlas averages 17.2 shots and 5 shots on target per game, outshooting Puebla significantly.
  • Puebla's defense concedes fewer goals on average but their attack is less potent, scoring 0.6 goals per game.
  • Atlas ranks 6th in the league, indicating stronger overall performance and consistency.
  • Atlas averages 8.2 corners per game, suggesting sustained attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Atlas to win with a 71.1% chance, supported by their superior recent form, higher attacking output, and home advantage. Atlas's ability to generate more shots and maintain offensive pressure contrasts with Puebla's lower scoring and shot rates. The 12.3% indicates the offer good value for backing Atlas, reflecting in their capacity to control the match and convert chances. No data limitations are present, reinforcing the reliability of this prediction.

Recent form advantageAtlas has 8 points vs Puebla's 3 in recent games
Strong positive
Attacking outputAtlas averages 17.2 shots/game vs Puebla's 11.8
Strong positive
Home league standingAtlas 6th vs Puebla 13th
Positive
Value edge71.1% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+12.3 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive concessionAtlas concedes 1.8 goals/game, Puebla 1.4
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Atlas's recent form and offensive control make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their higher league position and ability to create more chances provide a tactical and statistical edge over Puebla, who have struggled to find consistent attacking rhythm. Backing Atlas to win aligns with both form and data trends.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Atlas's superior shot volume and home advantage create a strong platform for victory, especially given Puebla's limited offensive threat. Their ability to sustain pressure and capitalize on chances is key in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Atlas to Win evidence

Atlas has earned 8 points in recent matches compared to Puebla's 3, showing better form.

Atlas averages 17.2 shots and 5 shots on target per game, outshooting Puebla significantly.

Puebla's defense concedes fewer goals on average but their attack is less potent, scoring 0.6 goals per game.

Atlas ranks 6th in the league, indicating stronger overall performance and consistency.

What To Watch In The Data

Atlas to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 3.8, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals.
  • This trend supports the potential for an attacking contest with chances for both teams, aligning with Atlas's offensive style and Puebla's sporadic scoring.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atlas1.8
Avg goals scored
Puebla0.6
Atlas1.8
Avg goals conceded
Puebla1.4
Atlas80%
BTTS rate
Puebla60%
Atlas40%
Over 2.5 goals
Puebla20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Atlas's recent matches show a higher goals per game average and an 80% BTTS rate, suggesting open play and scoring opportunities. Puebla's lower scoring and 60% BTTS rate indicate a less consistent attacking threat, but combined, the fixture could see goals from both sides.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAtlas to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 59% · edge +12.3 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Atlas Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 71.1% for Atlas to Win sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+12.3 pts). Atlas have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Puebla.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atlas

LWDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
22 Oct 2026H Club America2-5
17 Oct 2026A Necaxa2-0
11 Oct 2026H Guadalajara Chivas1-1
26 Sep 2026A Club Tijuana3-2
20 Sep 2026H U.N.A.M. - Pumas1-1

Puebla

LDDLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
22 Oct 2026H Monterrey1-4
17 Oct 2026A Club Tijuana0-0
10 Oct 2026H Leon1-1
27 Sep 2026A Tigres UANL0-1
19 Sep 2026H Atlante FC1-1
Market aligned with main pickAtlas to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 59% · edge +12.3 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Atlas Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Atlas's recent form is strong, accumulating 8 points with an average of 1.8 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating balanced performance. Puebla's 3 points and lower scoring rate reflect struggles in attack and consistency, reinforcing Atlas's advantage heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Atlas Over 2.5
20%Puebla Over 2.5
3.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 3.8, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals. This trend supports the potential for an attacking contest with chances for both teams, aligning with Atlas's offensive style and Puebla's sporadic scoring.

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