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Athletic Club crestAthletic Club
v
Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

La Liga | Sun 01 Nov, 20:00

Athletic Club v Real Sociedad Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 17:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Real Sociedad approach this crucial Copa del Rey second leg at Anoeta with a slender 1-0 aggregate lead over Athletic Club, having secured a vital away victory at San Mamés. Sociedad have maintained momentum with a recent 1-0 league win, showcasing their ability to control matches through superior passing accuracy and tactical discipline. Athletic Club, despite averaging higher shot volumes, struggle with finishing and must take risks to overturn the deficit, potentially exposing themselves to Sociedad's effective counter-attacks. The match promises a tactical battle with Sociedad aiming to protect their lead and Athletic pushing forward under pressure in a high-stakes Basque derby atmosphere.

BT4Y best bet

Real Sociedad to Win

  • Real Sociedad hold a 1-0 aggregate lead and have recent 1-0 wins indicating defensive solidity.
  • Sociedad's passing accuracy (82.6%) surpasses Athletic's (80.1%), aiding ball retention and control.
  • Athletic Club average 14.2 shots per game but have poor finishing, limiting scoring threat.
  • Disciplinary records favor Sociedad with fewer red cards, reducing risk of numerical disadvantage.
  • Athletic's need to attack aggressively may invite Sociedad's strong counter-attacking opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Real Sociedad's chances highly at 70%, reflecting their aggregate lead, home advantage, and superior passing accuracy that enables control under pressure. Athletic Club's higher shot volume is offset by poor finishing and a riskier disciplinary profile, which could be decisive in a tight knockout setting. Sociedad's recent form, including back-to-back 1-0 wins, supports a low-scoring, controlled victory. The model flags no price warning, indicating the 2.1 offer genuine value given the tactical and statistical context. This pick balances the defensive strength and game management Sociedad have demonstrated with Athletic's finishing struggles.

Aggregate LeadReal Sociedad lead 1-0 on aggregate
Strong positive
Passing AccuracySociedad 82.6% vs Athletic 80.1%
Positive
Shot Volume vs FinishingAthletic higher shots but poor finishing
Positive
Disciplinary RecordSociedad fewer red cards than Athletic
Positive
Recent FormSociedad won last two matches 1-0
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Real Sociedad's tactical discipline and ability to control possession at Anoeta make them favorites to secure the win and progress. Their recent narrow victories and superior passing accuracy contrast with Athletic Club's finishing struggles, suggesting Sociedad can manage the match tempo effectively while limiting Athletic's scoring chances.

Main risk

Set pieces at both ends: Sociedad’s attacking set pieces are a strength, but their defending set pieces is a weakness.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Real Sociedad's blend of tactical control and clinical defending, combined with Athletic's finishing inefficiency, positions Sociedad strongly to close out this tie at home.”

Key Data Signals

Real Sociedad to Win evidence

Real Sociedad hold a 1-0 aggregate lead and have recent 1-0 wins indicating defensive solidity.

Sociedad's passing accuracy (82.6%) surpasses Athletic's (80.1%), aiding ball retention and control.

Athletic Club average 14.2 shots per game but have poor finishing, limiting scoring threat.

Disciplinary records favor Sociedad with fewer red cards, reducing risk of numerical disadvantage.

What To Watch In The Data

Real Sociedad to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.9, indicating generally low-scoring affairs between these sides.
  • Sociedad's recent matches have featured tight scorelines, reinforcing the expectation of a cautious, tactical game with limited goal opportunities.
  • This trend supports a controlled match tempo with emphasis on defensive organization and set-piece effectiveness.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Athletic Club1.2
Avg goals scored
Real Sociedad2.6
Athletic Club0.8
Avg goals conceded
Real Sociedad2
Athletic Club40%
BTTS rate
Real Sociedad80%
Athletic Club40%
Over 2.5 goals
Real Sociedad100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 65% · edge +1.3 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Recent matches suggest a low-scoring encounter, with Sociedad's two consecutive 1-0 wins and Athletic's poor finishing limiting goal totals. Both teams show tendencies toward defensive solidity in knockout settings, and Sociedad's focus on protecting the lead further reduces scoring likelihood. BTTS is less probable given Sociedad's defensive discipline and Athletic's struggle to convert chances.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

La Liga hubfull betting preview for Athletic Club v Real Sociedadcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickReal Sociedad to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Real Sociedad Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 44.4% for Real Sociedad to Win sits against roughly 29.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Real Sociedad have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 6 for Athletic Club. This doesn’t read like a passive home side versus a siege.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Athletic Club

WLDDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 3L
25 Oct 2026H Getafe4-0
21 Oct 2026A Levante1-3
17 Oct 2026A Valencia0-0
19 Sep 2026H Alaves0-0
12 Sep 2026H Elche1-1

Real Sociedad

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
25 Oct 2026H Levante2-1
18 Oct 2026A Malaga5-2
11 Oct 2026H Deportivo La Coruna3-2
20 Sep 2026A Valencia3-2
13 Sep 2026H Atletico Madrid0-3
Market aligned with main pickReal Sociedad to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Real Sociedad Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Real Sociedad's recent form is strong, with 12 points from their last matches and a consistent goal-scoring rate of 2.6 goals per game, indicating offensive efficiency. Athletic Club has collected 6 points with a lower goal output of 1.2 per game, reflecting their finishing struggles. Sociedad's 100% rate of matches over 2.5 goals contrasts with Athletic's 40%, suggesting Sociedad can influence match tempo and scoring chances effectively.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Athletic Club Over 2.5
100%Real Sociedad Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.9, indicating generally low-scoring affairs between these sides. Sociedad's recent matches have featured tight scorelines, reinforcing the expectation of a cautious, tactical game with limited goal opportunities. This trend supports a controlled match tempo with emphasis on defensive organization and set-piece effectiveness.

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