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Athletic Carpi crestAthletic Carpi
v
Renate crestRenate

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 01 Nov, 16:30

Athletic Carpi v Renate Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Athletic Carpi and Renate meet in a Serie C - Girone A clash where both sides have shown contrasting offensive outputs this season. Athletic Carpi, positioned 13th with 12 points, have a higher scoring rate but also concede frequently, while Renate, 20th with 5 points, have struggled to find the net consistently. The match promises open play as both teams seek to improve their standings, with Athletic Carpi aiming to capitalize on home advantage and Renate looking to break their poor run. Tactical openness and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a game with multiple goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Athletic Carpi has an 80% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Renate's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 40% of the time, indicating occasional high-scoring games.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of both teams scoring, showing offensive potential on both sides.
  • Athletic Carpi concedes 1.8 goals per game, suggesting defensive frailties that could lead to more goals.
  • Recent form shows Athletic Carpi scoring 1.2 goals per game, supporting an attacking game plan.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 2.5 Goals with a 62.5% chance, reflecting Athletic Carpi's strong tendency for high-scoring matches and Renate's occasional involvement in open games. Athletic Carpi's defensive record and Renate's willingness to attack create conditions for multiple goals. The 8.4% and positive price at 1.85 support a confident stake. The data quality is solid, with no significant limitations, reinforcing the reliability of this prediction.

Athletic Carpi Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
Renate Over 2.5 Rate40%
Positive
Model Chance62.5% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+8.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance62.5% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+8.4 pts)
Positive
Value Edge62.5% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+8.4 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open match with Athletic Carpi's attacking style and defensive vulnerabilities combining with Renate's sporadic offensive bursts to produce multiple goals. The data supports Over 2.5 Goals as a logical outcome given the teams' scoring and conceding patterns, making it a tactically and statistically sound selection.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals

“Athletic Carpi's offensive intent and defensive lapses, paired with Renate's occasional attacking forays, set the stage for a match likely to exceed 2.5 goals, reflecting the dynamic and open nature of Serie C encounters.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Athletic Carpi has an 80% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season.

Renate's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 40% of the time, indicating occasional high-scoring games.

Both teams have a 60% rate of both teams scoring, showing offensive potential on both sides.

Athletic Carpi concedes 1.8 goals per game, suggesting defensive frailties that could lead to more goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In recent matches, Athletic Carpi has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a strong trend for high-scoring games.
  • Renate's 40% rate is lower but still significant.
  • This trend panel suggests a tempo and openness conducive to multiple goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Athletic Carpi1.2
Avg goals scored
Renate0.8
Athletic Carpi1.8
Avg goals conceded
Renate1.2
Athletic Carpi60%
BTTS rate
Renate60%
Athletic Carpi80%
Over 2.5 goals
Renate40%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 54% · edge +8.4 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 81%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating a balanced likelihood of goals from each side. Athletic Carpi's higher goals conceded and Renate's sporadic scoring suggest a match where both teams can find the net, supporting Over 2.5 Goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 54% · edge +8.4 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Athletic Carpi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Athletic Carpi to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Renate Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Renate to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The 62.5% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+8.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Athletic Carpi and 40% for Renate, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Athletic Carpi

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
24 Oct 2026A Alcione2-1
17 Oct 2026H Lumezzane3-1
10 Oct 2026A Pergolettese1-2
03 Oct 2026A PRO Vercelli0-2
27 Sep 2026H Arzignano Valchiampo0-3

Renate

DLDDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 5D 5L
25 Oct 2026H Albinoleffe0-0
19 Oct 2026A Juventus U231-2
11 Oct 2026H Giana Erminio2-2
03 Oct 2026A Ospitaletto1-1
27 Sep 2026H Treviso0-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 82% vs implied 77% · edge +4.8 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
Athletic Carpi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Athletic Carpi to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Renate Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Renate to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Athletic Carpi's recent form shows a high frequency of matches exceeding 2.5 goals (80%), while Renate's lower rate (40%) suggests less consistency but potential for open games. This contrast supports a match with multiple goals, especially given Athletic Carpi's offensive momentum.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Athletic Carpi Over 2.5
40%Renate Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In recent matches, Athletic Carpi has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a strong trend for high-scoring games. Renate's 40% rate is lower but still significant. This trend panel suggests a tempo and openness conducive to multiple goals in this fixture.

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