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Atalanta II crestAtalanta II
v
Vis Pesaro crestVis Pesaro

Serie C - Girone B | Wed 28 Oct, 17:00

Atalanta II v Vis Pesaro Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 07:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atalanta II host Vis Pesaro in a Serie C - Girone B clash where both teams have struggled defensively this season, creating a fertile ground for a high-scoring encounter. Atalanta II have conceded 1.6 goals per game while scoring 0.8, and Vis Pesaro have a leaky defense allowing 2.4 goals per match but manage to score at a rate of 1 goal per game. Vis Pesaro's recent matches have seen a high frequency of games exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting an open game with attacking intent from both sides. The fixture carries importance for Atalanta II to climb from 15th place, while Vis Pesaro, sitting 20th, seek to avoid further relegation pressure. This context sets up a potentially goal-rich match with both teams vulnerable at the back.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Atalanta II concede 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability
  • Vis Pesaro concede 2.4 goals per game, the highest in the matchup
  • Vis Pesaro have an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals recently
  • Atalanta II have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, showing occasional high-scoring games
  • Both teams have scored in 60% of Vis Pesaro's matches, suggesting attacking opportunities

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 44.5% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, slightly above the market implied probability, indicating a small positive value. Vis Pesaro's defensive frailty combined with Atalanta II's willingness to attack supports the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Vis Pesaro's recent matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, reinforcing the potential for multiple goals. The model at 52% reflects moderate certainty, with no warnings on price sensitivity, making Over 3.5 Goals an attractive option for standard stakes.

Vis Pesaro defensive weakness2.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Vis Pesaro over 2.5 goals rate80% recent matches
Strong positive
Atalanta II goals conceded1.6 per game
Positive
Model chance vs implied chance44.5% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+0.1 pts)
Neutral
Confidence level52% moderate
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match given Vis Pesaro's defensive struggles and Atalanta II's need for points. The data shows a strong trend towards high-scoring games for Vis Pesaro, which combined with Atalanta II's moderate goal concession, supports the Over 3.5 Goals selection as a tactical and statistical fit for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Vis Pesaro's porous defense and Atalanta II's attacking intent create a scenario ripe for multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice in this Serie C encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Atalanta II concede 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability

Vis Pesaro concede 2.4 goals per game, the highest in the matchup

Vis Pesaro have an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals recently

Atalanta II have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, showing occasional high-scoring games

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In recent matches, Vis Pesaro have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating a strong trend towards high-scoring games.
  • This trend, combined with Atalanta II's 40% rate, suggests a match tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, driven by defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atalanta II0.8
Avg goals scored
Vis Pesaro1
Atalanta II1.6
Avg goals conceded
Vis Pesaro2.4
Atalanta II40%
BTTS rate
Vis Pesaro60%
Atalanta II40%
Over 2.5 goals
Vis Pesaro80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 44% · edge +0.1 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 81%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Vis Pesaro's matches have an 80% rate of exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating frequent open games with multiple goals. Atalanta II's 40% over 2.5 rate and both teams to score in 60% of Vis Pesaro's games suggest attacking opportunities on both sides, supporting a high-scoring outcome with BTTS likely.

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Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionVis Pesaro Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 49% vs implied 36% · edge +12.3 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Vis Pesaro to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Atalanta II Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The 44.5% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+0.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Atalanta II and 80% for Vis Pesaro, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atalanta II

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 6L
24 Oct 2026H Campobasso FC1-2
18 Oct 2026A Gubbio2-0
14 Oct 2026A Latina0-2
11 Oct 2026A Torres1-2
20 Sep 2026H Ravenna0-2

Vis Pesaro

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 8L
24 Oct 2026H Ravenna0-4
18 Oct 2026A Latina0-1
10 Oct 2026H Grosseto2-3
27 Sep 2026H Guidonia Montecelio 19372-1
21 Sep 2026A Spezia1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Vis Pesaro Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Vis Pesaro to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Atalanta II Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Atalanta II to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Recent form shows Vis Pesaro with a high over 2.5 goals rate at 80%, indicating their matches often feature multiple goals. Atalanta II's 40% rate is lower but still notable. Both teams have struggled defensively, conceding 1.6 and 2.4 goals per game respectively, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Atalanta II Over 2.5
80%Vis Pesaro Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In recent matches, Vis Pesaro have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating a strong trend towards high-scoring games. This trend, combined with Atalanta II's 40% rate, suggests a match tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, driven by defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent.

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