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Aston Villa W crestAston Villa W
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Arsenal W crestArsenal W

FA WSL | Sat 09 May, 12:00

Aston Villa W v Arsenal W Stats

Data last updated: Sat 27 Jun 2026, 19:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aston Villa W face Arsenal W in FA WSL on Sat 09 May, 12:00. Aston Villa W come in with 4 recent points and 1.6 goals per match, while Arsenal W have 13 points and 4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Aston Villa W Draw No Bet

  • At 5.75, Aston Villa W Draw No Bet implies roughly 17%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 45%.
  • Arsenal W have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Aston Villa W.
  • Arsenal W have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Aston Villa W Draw No Bet angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Aston Villa W sit 9 in the table, while Arsenal W sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 45% for Aston Villa W Draw No Bet sits against roughly 17% implied by the current price. Arsenal W have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Aston Villa W.

Model chance vs price45% model chance against roughly 17% implied
Strong positive
Arsenal W have the stronger recent points return, taking 13.Visible data support
Positive
Arsenal W have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Aston Villa W Draw No Bet is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Arsenal W have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Aston Villa W. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Aston Villa W Draw No Bet evidence

Arsenal W have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Aston Villa W.

Arsenal W have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Aston Villa W Draw No Bet angle more than a raw possession edge.

Aston Villa W sit 9 in the table, while Arsenal W sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Aston Villa W Draw No Bet notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Aston Villa W6
    Avg corners for
    Arsenal W7
    Aston Villa W11.33
    Avg total corners
    Arsenal W8.75
    Aston Villa W1
    Avg yellow cards
    Arsenal W1.75
    Aston Villa W10.67
    Avg shots
    Arsenal W19.75
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 58% · edge +0.6 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Aston Villa W1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Arsenal W4
    Aston Villa W2.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Arsenal W0.6
    Aston Villa W60%
    BTTS rate
    Arsenal W40%
    Aston Villa W60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Arsenal W60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +8.7 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 85%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa W Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 17% · edge +27.6 pts
    5.75
    Check odds @ 5.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Aston Villa W to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
    10
    Check odds @ 10
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Aston Villa W Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Aston Villa W

    LLWDL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 7L
    04 May 2026H West Ham W0-2
    29 Mar 2026A Chelsea W3-4
    22 Mar 2026A Leicester City FC W2-1
    15 Mar 2026H Manchester City W0-0
    15 Feb 2026H Tottenham Hotspur W3-7

    Arsenal W

    DWWWW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 108W 2D 0L
    06 May 2026A Brighton W1-1
    29 Apr 2026H Leicester City FC W7-0
    28 Mar 2026H Tottenham Hotspur W5-2
    21 Mar 2026H West Ham W5-0
    15 Mar 2026A London City Lionesses W2-0
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa W Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 17% · edge +27.6 pts
    5.75
    Check odds @ 5.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    3.55
    Check odds @ 3.55
    Aston Villa W to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
    10
    Check odds @ 10
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Aston Villa W wins
    1Draws
    7Arsenal W wins
    18 Jan 2026Arsenal W v Aston Villa W2-0
    27 Sep 2025Arsenal W v Aston Villa W1-1
    30 Apr 2025Aston Villa W v Arsenal W5-2
    08 Dec 2024Arsenal W v Aston Villa W4-0
    24 Mar 2024Aston Villa W v Arsenal W1-3
    06 Mar 2024Arsenal W v Aston Villa W4-0
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa W to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 10% · edge +17 pts
    10
    Check odds @ 10
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Aston Villa W to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    FA WSL

    Aston Villa W22
    Played
    Arsenal W22
    Aston Villa W1.3
    Avg goals for
    Arsenal W2.4
    Aston Villa W2.2
    Avg goals against
    Arsenal W0.6
    Aston Villa W6
    Clean sheets
    Arsenal W11
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa W Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 17% · edge +27.6 pts
    5.75
    Check odds @ 5.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Aston Villa W to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
    10
    Check odds @ 10
    Season data supports Aston Villa W Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Arsenal W5122156139
    9Aston Villa W20225512-20
    Aston Villa W sit in position 9, while Arsenal W sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Aston Villa W Draw No Bet assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Aston Villa W Over 2.5
    60%Arsenal W Over 2.5
    3.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aston Villa W sit at 60% and Arsenal W sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Betting context

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