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Fulham crestFulham

Premier League | Sat 31 Oct, 20:00

Aston Villa v Fulham Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 11:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aston Villa host Fulham in a Premier League clash where both teams seek a third consecutive league win amid contrasting starts. Villa's resurgence under Unai Emery, highlighted by Nicolas Jackson's recent scoring streak, faces Fulham's disciplined defensive setup and limited away goals. Both sides tend to reach half-time level, indicating a cautious opening likely to produce few goals. Fulham's improved defensive record and Villa's inconsistent home form set the stage for a tightly contested, low-scoring encounter at Villa Park.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Fulham have kept three clean sheets in their last five league matches, showing defensive solidity.
  • Aston Villa have scored in all of their last five matches, led by Nicolas Jackson's four goals in four games.
  • Both teams have frequently been level at half-time in recent fixtures, suggesting slow starts.
  • Fulham have scored only two goals in four away league games, indicating limited attacking threat on the road.
  • Villa's home form is mixed, with just one win in four Premier League matches at Villa Park this season.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals due to Fulham's strong defensive discipline and low away scoring, combined with Villa's cautious home performances. Fulham's three clean sheets in five matches and Villa's tendency for slow starts support a low-scoring outcome. The of 51% slightly exceeds the implied chance, indicating a modest . This pick reflects the tactical battle where both teams prioritize defensive stability over open attacking play, making a low total goals count the most probable scenario.

Fulham Defensive Clean Sheets3 in last 5 matches
Strong positive
Villa Scoring ConsistencyScored in last 5 matches
Positive
Half-time Level MatchesBoth teams often level at half-time
Positive
Fulham Away Goals2 goals in 4 away games
Positive
Villa Home Form1 win in 4 home matches
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns with the tactical setup of a cautious Villa side facing a defensively disciplined Fulham. Villa's recent form and Jackson's scoring threat provide attacking potential, but Fulham's resilience and low away scoring suggest a tight match with limited goals. The data and tactical context support a low-scoring outcome.

Main risk

Aston Villa carry the stronger scoring threat, but Fulham must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and form analysis

“Villa's improving form and Jackson's sharp finishing contrast with Fulham's defensive resilience and limited away goals, making a low-scoring game the most plausible scenario.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Fulham have kept three clean sheets in their last five league matches, showing defensive solidity.

Aston Villa have scored in all of their last five matches, led by Nicolas Jackson's four goals in four games.

Both teams have frequently been level at half-time in recent fixtures, suggesting slow starts.

Fulham have scored only two goals in four away league games, indicating limited attacking threat on the road.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten meetings between these teams have averaged 2.7 goals per game, a moderate scoring rate.
  • However, recent trends show both sides often reaching half-time level and matches featuring fewer goals, supporting the likelihood of an Under 2.5 Goals outcome.
  • The tempo and tactical caution in recent fixtures suggest a controlled game with limited scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aston Villa1.8
Avg goals scored
Fulham0.8
Aston Villa1.4
Avg goals conceded
Fulham0.6
Aston Villa80%
BTTS rate
Fulham40%
Aston Villa80%
Over 2.5 goals
Fulham20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have shown tendencies toward low-scoring matches, with Fulham keeping three clean sheets in five games and Villa scoring consistently but not prolifically. Fulham's limited away goals and Villa's slow starts suggest a low likelihood of both teams scoring, supporting an Under 3.5 Goals and BTTS No context for this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Aston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Aston Villa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Fulham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Fulham to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 51% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+5.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Aston Villa and 20% for Fulham, so the goals angle is not just a price call. With Garcia on a seven-start scoring drought, the burden falls heavily on the midfield to create chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aston Villa

WWDWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 3L
24 Oct 2026H Manchester City2-1
17 Oct 2026A Newcastle1-0
10 Oct 2026H Brentford2-2
19 Sep 2026A Tottenham3-2
12 Sep 2026H Nottingham Forest1-2

Fulham

WWLDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
24 Oct 2026A Coventry1-0
17 Oct 2026H Hull City1-0
10 Oct 2026A Ipswich1-2
20 Sep 2026H Manchester United1-1
12 Sep 2026A Liverpool0-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 80% · edge +1.2 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
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Aston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Aston Villa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Fulham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Fulham to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Villa have collected 10 points from their last four league matches, showing a strong revival, while Fulham have earned 8 points in the same period with improved defensive performances. Villa's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Fulham's low rate (20%), but recent tactical caution and defensive discipline suggest a return to lower scoring in this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Aston Villa Over 2.5
20%Fulham Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
The last ten meetings between these teams have averaged 2.7 goals per game, a moderate scoring rate. However, recent trends show both sides often reaching half-time level and matches featuring fewer goals, supporting the likelihood of an Under 2.5 Goals outcome. The tempo and tactical caution in recent fixtures suggest a controlled game with limited scoring chances.

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