Football Stats Hub

Aston Villa crestAston Villa
v
Brentford crestBrentford

Premier League | Sat 10 Oct, 15:00

Aston Villa v Brentford Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 19:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aston Villa face Brentford in Premier League on Sat 10 Oct, 15:00. 7 away matches: Brentford's current winless Premier League run on the road. Aston Villa vs Brentford Preview: Unbeaten Bees Aim to Extend Villa Park Misery. Brentford create more chances, leaving Aston Villa under pressure to match their attacking tempo.

BT4Y best bet

Match and Both Teams to Score - Brentford

  • At 7/2, Match and Both Teams to Score - Brentford implies roughly 22%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 37%.
  • Selection: Match and Both Teams to Score - Brentford.
  • Aston Villa show a 40% BTTS rate and Brentford show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Aston Villa average 0.8 goals scored and Brentford average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 37% for Match and Both Teams to Score - Brentford sits against roughly 22% implied by the current price. Aston Villa show a 40% BTTS rate and Brentford show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Match and Both Teams to Score - Brentford.

Model chance vs price37% model chance against roughly 22% implied
Strong positive
Aston Villa show a 40% BTTS rate and Brentford show.Visible data support
Positive
Aston Villa average 0.8 goals scored and Brentford average 2.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Match and Both Teams to Score - Brentford.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: Match and Both Teams to Score - Brentford. Aston Villa show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Brentford show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. However, their home record remains concerning.

Main risk

However, their home record remains concerning.

Key Data Signals

Match and Both Teams to Score - Brentford evidence

Selection: Match and Both Teams to Score - Brentford.

Aston Villa show a 40% BTTS rate and Brentford show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Aston Villa average 0.8 goals scored and Brentford average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Match and Both Teams to Score - Brentford notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aston Villa0.8
Avg goals scored
Brentford2
Aston Villa1.8
Avg goals conceded
Brentford0.8
Aston Villa40%
BTTS rate
Brentford60%
Aston Villa60%
Over 2.5 goals
Brentford60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 64% · edge -0.4 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 40% for Aston Villa and 60% for Brentford, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Premier League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Aston Villa v Brentfordcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 64% · edge -0.4 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Brentford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Brentford to WinBetUK guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Aston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Aston Villa to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS Yes is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aston Villa

WLDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
19 Sep 2026A Tottenham3-2
12 Sep 2026H Nottingham Forest1-2
05 Sep 2026A Hull City0-0
31 Aug 2026H Arsenal0-1
23 Aug 2026A Brighton0-4

Brentford

WDDDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 0L
18 Sep 2026H Chelsea3-0
12 Sep 2026A Bournemouth2-2
05 Sep 2026H Sunderland1-1
30 Aug 2026A Leeds1-1
22 Aug 2026H Tottenham3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 69% · edge +14.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Brentford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Brentford to WinBetUK guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Aston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Aston Villa to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 19%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Aston Villa Over 2.5
60%Brentford Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aston Villa sit at 60% and Brentford sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Loading deeper match data…