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AS Roma crestAS Roma
v
Lazio crestLazio

Serie A | Sun 17 May, 11:00

AS Roma v Lazio Stats

Data last updated: Sun 07 Jun 2026, 09:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AS Roma face Lazio in Serie A on Sun 17 May, 11:00. AS Roma come in with 13 recent points and 2.6 goals per match, while Lazio have 7 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

AS Roma Draw No Bet

  • At 1.95, AS Roma Draw No Bet implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 78%.
  • AS Roma have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Lazio.
  • AS Roma have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the AS Roma Draw No Bet angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • AS Roma sit 3 in the table, while Lazio sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 78% for AS Roma Draw No Bet sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price. AS Roma have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Lazio.

Model chance vs price78% model chance against roughly 51% implied
Strong positive
AS Roma have the stronger recent points return, taking 13.Visible data support
Positive
AS Roma have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: AS Roma Draw No Bet is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers AS Roma have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Lazio. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

AS Roma Draw No Bet evidence

AS Roma have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Lazio.

AS Roma have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the AS Roma Draw No Bet angle more than a raw possession edge.

AS Roma sit 3 in the table, while Lazio sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

AS Roma Draw No Bet notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    AS Roma2.6
    Avg goals scored
    Lazio1.4
    AS Roma0.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Lazio1.6
    AS Roma40%
    BTTS rate
    Lazio40%
    AS Roma60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Lazio60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 51% · edge +8.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 70%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Serie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAS Roma Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 51% · edge +26.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 63%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    AS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    AS Roma Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    AS Roma5
    Avg corners for
    Lazio3.6
    AS Roma9.8
    Avg total corners
    Lazio8.8
    AS Roma1.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Lazio2.4
    AS Roma12.6
    Avg shots
    Lazio11.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 46% · edge +17.2 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    AS Roma

    WWWDW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    10 May 2026A Parma3-2
    04 May 2026H Fiorentina4-0
    25 Apr 2026A Bologna2-0
    18 Apr 2026H Atalanta1-1
    10 Apr 2026H Pisa3-0

    Lazio

    LWDWL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    09 May 2026H Inter0-3
    04 May 2026A Cremonese2-1
    27 Apr 2026H Udinese3-3
    18 Apr 2026A Napoli2-0
    13 Apr 2026A Fiorentina0-1
    Market aligned with main pickAS Roma Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 51% · edge +26.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    AS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4AS Roma wins
    2Draws
    4Lazio wins
    21 Sep 2025Lazio v AS Roma0-1
    13 Apr 2025Lazio v AS Roma1-1
    05 Jan 2025AS Roma v Lazio2-0
    06 Apr 2024AS Roma v Lazio1-0
    10 Jan 2024Lazio v AS Roma1-0
    12 Nov 2023Lazio v AS Roma0-0
    Market aligned with main pickAS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 67% · edge +7.3 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for AS Roma to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Serie A

    AS Roma38
    Played
    Lazio38
    AS Roma1.6
    Avg goals for
    Lazio1.1
    AS Roma0.8
    Avg goals against
    Lazio1.1
    AS Roma18
    Clean sheets
    Lazio15
    Market aligned with main pickAS Roma Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 51% · edge +26.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    AS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Season data supports AS Roma Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3AS Roma73382341128
    9Lazio54381412121
    AS Roma sit in position 3, while Lazio sit in position 9, so table pressure belongs in the AS Roma Draw No Bet assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%AS Roma Over 2.5
    60%Lazio Over 2.5
    1.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: AS Roma sit at 60% and Lazio sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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