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AS Roma crestAS Roma
v
Lazio crestLazio

Serie A | Sun 17 May, 11:00

AS Roma v Lazio Stats

Data last updated: Mon 17 Aug 2026, 04:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AS Roma face Lazio in Serie A on Sun 17 May, 11:00. AS Roma come in with 13 recent points and 2.6 goals per match, while Lazio have 7 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • At 2.2, Over 3.5 Cards implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 61%.
  • Lazio have the higher yellow-card average at 2.4, while AS Roma sit at 1.4.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 61% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. Lazio have the higher yellow-card average at 2.4, while AS Roma sit at 1.4.

Model chance vs price61% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Strong positive
Lazio have the higher yellow-card average at 2.4, while AS.Visible data support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 3.5 Cards is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Lazio have the higher yellow-card average at 2.4, while AS Roma sit at 1.4. The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Lazio have the higher yellow-card average at 2.4, while AS Roma sit at 1.4.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Compare both yellow-card averages before treating the card line as value.
  • Check whether match pressure is likely to create fouls and recovery challenges.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AS Roma2.6
Avg goals scored
Lazio1.4
AS Roma0.6
Avg goals conceded
Lazio1.6
AS Roma40%
BTTS rate
Lazio40%
AS Roma60%
Over 2.5 goals
Lazio60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 51% · edge +8.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
AS Roma Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
AS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Lazio to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AS Roma5
Avg corners for
Lazio3.6
AS Roma9.8
Avg total corners
Lazio8.8
AS Roma1.4
Avg yellow cards
Lazio2.4
AS Roma12.6
Avg shots
Lazio11.4
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AS Roma

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
10 May 2026A Parma3-2
04 May 2026H Fiorentina4-0
25 Apr 2026A Bologna2-0
18 Apr 2026H Atalanta1-1
10 Apr 2026H Pisa3-0

Lazio

LWDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
09 May 2026H Inter0-3
04 May 2026A Cremonese2-1
27 Apr 2026H Udinese3-3
18 Apr 2026A Napoli2-0
13 Apr 2026A Fiorentina0-1
Best odds for this sectionAS Roma Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
AS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.56
Check odds @ 2.56
Lazio to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Lazio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4AS Roma wins
2Draws
4Lazio wins
21 Sep 2025Lazio v AS Roma0-1
13 Apr 2025Lazio v AS Roma1-1
05 Jan 2025AS Roma v Lazio2-0
06 Apr 2024AS Roma v Lazio1-0
10 Jan 2024Lazio v AS Roma1-0
12 Nov 2023Lazio v AS Roma0-0
Best odds for this sectionAS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 67% · edge +7.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Lazio to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
The head-to-head sample gives context for AS Roma to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

AS Roma38
Played
Lazio38
AS Roma1.6
Avg goals for
Lazio1.1
AS Roma0.8
Avg goals against
Lazio1.1
AS Roma18
Clean sheets
Lazio15
Best odds for this sectionAS Roma Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
AS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Lazio to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Lazio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Season data supports AS Roma Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3AS Roma73382341128
9Lazio54381412121
AS Roma sit in position 3, while Lazio sit in position 9, so table pressure belongs in the Over 3.5 Cards assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%AS Roma Over 2.5
60%Lazio Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: AS Roma sit at 60% and Lazio sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Competition and hubs

Serie A hubSerie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hub

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Betting context

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