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AS Roma crestAS Roma
v
Genoa crestGenoa

Serie A | Sat 17 Oct, 19:45

AS Roma v Genoa Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 03:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AS Roma face Genoa in Serie A on Sat 17 Oct, 19:45. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side currently sit third in Serie A, trailing the leaders by just two points and boasting an impressive 13-match unbeaten league run.

BT4Y best bet

—Both Teams To Score—relies on Genoa finding a route through the league's strongest defence

  • At 1.91, —Both Teams To Score—relies on Genoa finding a route through the league's strongest defence implies roughly 52%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • The underlying metrics show that the visitors average 3.6 shots on target per game.
  • AS Roma show a 40% BTTS rate and Genoa show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • AS Roma average 2 goals scored and Genoa average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for —Both Teams To Score—relies on Genoa finding a route through the league's strongest defence sits against roughly 52% implied by the current price. AS Roma show a 40% BTTS rate and Genoa show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. The underlying metrics show that the visitors average 3.6 shots on target per game.

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 52% implied
Strong positive
AS Roma show a 40% BTTS rate and Genoa show.Visible data support
Positive
AS Roma average 2 goals scored and Genoa average 1.Visible data support
Positive
The underlying metrics show that the visitors average 3.6.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because the underlying metrics show that the visitors average that shot volume on target per game. AS Roma show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Genoa show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. The primary concern for this selection is Roma’s overall attacking rhythm.

Main risk

The primary concern for this selection is Roma’s overall attacking rhythm.

Key Data Signals

—Both Teams To Score—relies on Genoa finding a route through the league's strongest defence evidence

The underlying metrics show that the visitors average 3.6 shots on target per game.

AS Roma show a 40% BTTS rate and Genoa show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

AS Roma average 2 goals scored and Genoa average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

—Both Teams To Score—relies on Genoa finding a route through the league's strongest defence notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AS Roma2
Avg goals scored
Genoa1
AS Roma0.6
Avg goals conceded
Genoa1.8
AS Roma40%
BTTS rate
Genoa80%
AS Roma60%
Over 2.5 goals
Genoa60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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AS Roma to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Genoa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
AS Roma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

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Useful next reads

more Serie A analysisfull betting preview for AS Roma v Genoacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AS Roma

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 0L
11 Oct 2026A Como0-0
19 Sep 2026H Inter2-2
14 Sep 2026A Torino2-0
05 Sep 2026H Atalanta2-1
31 Aug 2026A Lecce4-0

Genoa

WLDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 4L
10 Oct 2026H Fiorentina2-1
20 Sep 2026A Parma1-2
12 Sep 2026H Frosinone1-1
04 Sep 2026H Como1-4
30 Aug 2026A Lazio0-1
Best odds for this sectionAS Roma to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 68% · edge +6.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
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Genoa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
AS Roma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%AS Roma Over 2.5
60%Genoa Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: AS Roma sit at 60% and Genoa sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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