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AS Roma crestAS Roma
v
Genoa crestGenoa

Serie A | Sat 17 Oct, 19:45

AS Roma v Genoa Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 18:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AS Roma hosts Genoa in a Serie A clash where Roma's strong home form and attacking prowess contrast with Genoa's defensive struggles and need for points. Roma ranks third with 14 points, showing solid defensive discipline, while Genoa sits 17th with just 4 points, often conceding heavily. Roma's recent matches show a tendency for controlled scoring, while Genoa's offense is less potent but capable of finding the net. This fixture promises tactical battles, with Roma aiming to maintain pressure and Genoa seeking to exploit counter-attacks, setting the stage for goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Roma ranks 3rd with strong defensive record, conceding 0.6 goals per game.
  • Genoa concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Roma averages 19 shots per game with 5.8 on target, showing attacking firepower.
  • Genoa has an 80% BTTS rate, often scoring despite defensive issues.
  • Recent form shows Roma scoring but only 40% BTTS, Genoa's 80% BTTS suggests goals at both ends likely.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 70% chance, well above the 52.4% implied by , indicating strong value. Roma's solid attack and Genoa's defensive frailties combine with Genoa's high BTTS rate to support this pick. Roma's average shots and Genoa's willingness to attack despite conceding heavily create a scenario where both sides find the net. is high at 88%, reflecting consistent data signals and tactical context favoring goals from both teams.

Model Chance67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Genoa BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Roma Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game
Positive
Roma Average Shots19 per game
Positive
Implied Chance vs Model67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Teams to Score is a fitting pick given Roma's attacking strength and Genoa's defensive vulnerabilities paired with their tendency to score. Roma's disciplined defense may limit Genoa somewhat, but Genoa's high BTTS rate and attacking players suggest goals at both ends. The tactical setup and recent form data align well with this outcome, making it a sensible selection for this Serie A fixture.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“Roma's offensive depth combined with Genoa's defensive lapses creates a fertile ground for goals from both sides, making BTTS a compelling angle despite Roma's solid backline.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Roma ranks 3rd with strong defensive record, conceding 0.6 goals per game.

Genoa concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Roma averages 19 shots per game with 5.8 on target, showing attacking firepower.

Genoa has an 80% BTTS rate, often scoring despite defensive issues.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating a moderately open game.
  • Both teams have shown tendencies to score, with Genoa's recent matches featuring a high BTTS rate.
  • The trend over recent fixtures suggests a tempo that favors goal opportunities through transitions and set pieces, supporting the Over 2.5 goals trend panel context.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AS Roma2
Avg goals scored
Genoa1
AS Roma0.6
Avg goals conceded
Genoa1.8
AS Roma40%
BTTS rate
Genoa80%
AS Roma60%
Over 2.5 goals
Genoa60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Roma's controlled scoring style contrasts with Genoa's more open approach, reflected in their 40% and 80% BTTS rates respectively. Genoa's defensive frailty often leads to conceding goals but they also manage to score regularly, making a BTTS No scenario less likely. The goal patterns suggest a match with goals at both ends, though Roma may keep the scoreline tighter.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Serie A analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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AS Roma to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Genoa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
AS Roma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
The 67.4% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). AS Roma show a 40% BTTS rate and Genoa show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AS Roma

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 0L
11 Oct 2026A Como0-0
19 Sep 2026H Inter2-2
14 Sep 2026A Torino2-0
05 Sep 2026H Atalanta2-1
31 Aug 2026A Lecce4-0

Genoa

WLDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 4L
10 Oct 2026H Fiorentina2-1
20 Sep 2026A Parma1-2
12 Sep 2026H Frosinone1-1
04 Sep 2026H Como1-4
30 Aug 2026A Lazio0-1
Best odds for this sectionAS Roma to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 68% · edge +6.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
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Genoa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
AS Roma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Roma's recent form shows strong point accumulation with 11 points and a solid defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals per game. Genoa's form is weaker with 4 points and a higher concession rate of 1.8 goals per game. However, Genoa's 80% BTTS rate in recent matches contrasts with Roma's 40%, indicating Genoa's matches often feature goals from both sides, supporting the BTTS pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%AS Roma Over 2.5
60%Genoa Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating a moderately open game. Both teams have shown tendencies to score, with Genoa's recent matches featuring a high BTTS rate. The trend over recent fixtures suggests a tempo that favors goal opportunities through transitions and set pieces, supporting the Over 2.5 goals trend panel context.

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