Football Stats Hub

Arzignano Valchiampo crestArzignano Valchiampo
v
Novara crestNovara

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 25 Oct, 16:30

Arzignano Valchiampo v Novara Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 15:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Arzignano Valchiampo hosts Novara in a Serie C - Girone A clash where home advantage and current momentum play pivotal roles. Arzignano Valchiampo sits comfortably in 5th place with 17 points, showcasing a strong attacking output averaging 1.8 goals per game, while Novara, positioned 13th with 10 points, struggles defensively conceding 1.8 goals per match. Recent form data highlights Arzignano Valchiampo's superior consistency and goal threat, setting the stage for a competitive encounter with the home side favored to capitalize on their offensive edge and league standing.

BT4Y best bet

Arzignano Valchiampo to Win

  • Arzignano Valchiampo ranks 5th with 17 points, significantly ahead of Novara's 13th place and 10 points.
  • Arzignano Valchiampo averages 1.8 goals scored per game versus Novara's 1.2, indicating stronger attacking potency.
  • Novara concedes 1.8 goals per match compared to Arzignano Valchiampo's tighter defense allowing 1 goal per game.
  • Recent form shows Arzignano Valchiampo with a 72.6% to win, reflecting solid in their home advantage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Arzignano Valchiampo to win based on their superior league position, stronger recent form, and more effective attack combined with a more resilient defense. The home side's 72.6% win probability is supported by a 27.1% against current , indicating a clear statistical advantage. This is bolstered by Arzignano Valchiampo's ability to score consistently and limit opposition goals, making them the logical pick in this fixture.

League Position5th vs 13th
Strong positive
Goals Scored per Game1.8 vs 1.2
Positive
Goals Conceded per Game1.0 vs 1.8
Strong positive
Model Win Probability72.6%
Strong positive
Value Edge60.5% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Arzignano Valchiampo's home advantage and superior recent form make them the clear choice for victory. Their consistent goal scoring and tighter defense compared to Novara provide a tactical and statistical foundation for expecting a home win in this Serie C encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome

“Arzignano Valchiampo's blend of attacking efficiency and defensive solidity, combined with their higher league standing, positions them well to secure all three points against a struggling Novara side.”

Key Data Signals

Arzignano Valchiampo to Win evidence

Arzignano Valchiampo ranks 5th with 17 points, significantly ahead of Novara's 13th place and 10 points.

Arzignano Valchiampo averages 1.8 goals scored per game versus Novara's 1.2, indicating stronger attacking potency.

Novara concedes 1.8 goals per match compared to Arzignano Valchiampo's tighter defense allowing 1 goal per game.

Recent form shows Arzignano Valchiampo with a 72.6% to win, reflecting solid in their home advantage.

What To Watch In The Data

Arzignano Valchiampo to Win notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.63, suggesting moderately low-scoring encounters.
  • However, Arzignano Valchiampo's recent over 2.5 goals rate of 80% indicates an upward trend in scoring tempo, which could influence this fixture towards more attacking play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Arzignano Valchiampo1.8
Avg goals scored
Novara1.2
Arzignano Valchiampo1
Avg goals conceded
Novara1.8
Arzignano Valchiampo60%
BTTS rate
Novara60%
Arzignano Valchiampo80%
Over 2.5 goals
Novara60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams exhibit moderate BTTS rates at 60%, but Arzignano Valchiampo's higher average goals per game (1.8) compared to Novara's 1.2 suggests a greater likelihood of goals from the home side. The combined data points to a match with scoring opportunities, though not necessarily a high-scoring thriller.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickArzignano Valchiampo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 60.5% for Arzignano Valchiampo to Win sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Arzignano Valchiampo have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Novara.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Arzignano Valchiampo

LWDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
19 Oct 2026A Cittadella0-1
10 Oct 2026H Juventus U232-1
03 Oct 2026H Pergolettese2-2
27 Sep 2026A Athletic Carpi3-0
20 Sep 2026H Renate2-1

Novara

DLWLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Albinoleffe2-2
10 Oct 2026H Cittadella0-2
04 Oct 2026A Dolomiti Bellunesi2-1
26 Sep 2026H Ospitaletto0-2
20 Sep 2026H Athletic Carpi2-2
Market aligned with main pickArzignano Valchiampo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Arzignano Valchiampo's recent form is markedly better, accumulating 10 points in their last matches compared to Novara's 5. This momentum reflects effective tactical execution and squad , reinforcing their status as favorites to secure victory at home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Arzignano Valchiampo Over 2.5
60%Novara Over 2.5
1.63H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.63, suggesting moderately low-scoring encounters. However, Arzignano Valchiampo's recent over 2.5 goals rate of 80% indicates an upward trend in scoring tempo, which could influence this fixture towards more attacking play.

Loading deeper match data…