Football Stats Hub

Arsenal crestArsenal
v
Newcastle crestNewcastle

Premier League | Sat 25 Apr, 17:30

Arsenal v Newcastle Stats

Data last updated: Sun 14 Jun 2026, 11:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Arsenal face Newcastle in Premier League on Sat 25 Apr, 17:30. The 2-1 scoreline was the exact result in the reverse fixture and has appeared frequently in Newcastle's recent defeats. Arsenal have seen BTTS land in their last three domestic matches, while Newcastle have scored in 18 consecutive games.

BT4Y best bet

Arsenal to Win & Both Teams to Score Arsenal come into this match under immense pressure to respond following their defeat to Manchester City

  • At 2/1, Arsenal Win & BTTS implies roughly 33%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 56%.
  • Newcastle matches average 3.5 goals, while Arsenal have conceded twice in each of their last four games.
  • Arsenal need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Arsenal on 9 and Newcastle on 6.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Arsenal and 80% for Newcastle.
  • Arsenal Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.4 for Arsenal and 1.2 for Newcastle are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 56% for Arsenal Win & BTTS sits against roughly 33% implied by the current price. Arsenal need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Arsenal on 9 and Newcastle on 6. Newcastle matches average that scoring level, while Arsenal have conceded twice in each of their last four games.

Model chance vs price56% model chance against roughly 33% implied
Strong positive
Arsenal need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Newcastle matches average 3.5 goals, while Arsenal have conceded.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Arsenal Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because newcastle matches average that scoring level, while Arsenal have conceded twice in each of their last four games. Arsenal need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Arsenal on 9 and Newcastle on 6. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Arsenal Win & BTTS evidence

Newcastle matches average 3.5 goals, while Arsenal have conceded twice in each of their last four games.

Arsenal need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Arsenal on 9 and Newcastle on 6.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Arsenal and 80% for Newcastle.

Arsenal Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.4 for Arsenal and 1.2 for Newcastle are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Arsenal Win & BTTS notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Arsenal1.4
Avg goals scored
Newcastle1.2
Arsenal1
Avg goals conceded
Newcastle1.4
Arsenal60%
BTTS rate
Newcastle80%
Arsenal60%
Over 2.5 goals
Newcastle80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 10% · edge +57 pts
10
Check odds @ 10
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
9
Check odds @ 9
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
15
Check odds @ 15
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickArsenal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 81% · edge -12.7 pts
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
10
Check odds @ 10
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Arsenal to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Arsenal Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Arsenal5.75
Avg corners for
Newcastle3.6
Arsenal11.5
Avg total corners
Newcastle8
Arsenal1.25
Avg yellow cards
Newcastle2.4
Arsenal10.75
Avg shots
Newcastle10.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 51% · edge +10.4 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Arsenal

LLWWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
19 Apr 2026A Manchester City1-2
11 Apr 2026H Bournemouth1-2
14 Mar 2026H Everton2-0
04 Mar 2026A Brighton1-0
01 Mar 2026H Chelsea2-1

Newcastle

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
18 Apr 2026H Bournemouth1-2
12 Apr 2026A Crystal Palace1-2
22 Mar 2026H Sunderland1-2
14 Mar 2026A Chelsea1-0
04 Mar 2026H Manchester United2-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 90% · edge -6 pts
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Load more odds for this section
Arsenal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Arsenal to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Arsenal wins
1Draws
4Newcastle wins
28 Sep 2025Newcastle v Arsenal1-2
27 Jul 2025Arsenal v Newcastle3-2
18 May 2025Arsenal v Newcastle1-0
05 Feb 2025Newcastle v Arsenal2-0
07 Jan 2025Arsenal v Newcastle0-2
02 Nov 2024Newcastle v Arsenal1-0
Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 70% · edge -11.3 pts
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
10
Check odds @ 10
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The head-to-head sample gives context for Arsenal to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premier League

Arsenal0
Played
Newcastle38
Arsenal-
Avg goals for
Newcastle1.4
Arsenal-
Avg goals against
Newcastle1.4
Arsenal-
Clean sheets
Newcastle8
Market aligned with main pickArsenal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 81% · edge -12.7 pts
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Load more odds for this section
Arsenal to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Season data supports Arsenal Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Arsenal8538267544
12Newcastle493814717-2
Arsenal sit in position 1, while Newcastle sit in position 12, so table pressure belongs in the Arsenal Win & BTTS assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Arsenal Over 2.5
80%Newcastle Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Arsenal sit at 60% and Newcastle sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.