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Arsenal crestArsenal
v
Fulham crestFulham

Premier League | Sat 02 May, 17:30

Arsenal v Fulham Stats

Data last updated: Sun 26 Jul 2026, 14:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Arsenal face Fulham in Premier League on Sat 02 May, 17:30. A 2-0 scoreline reflects their control and Fulham's inability to penetrate the league leaders' defensive structure. Fulham have failed to score in three consecutive away matches and face a tight Arsenal defence.

BT4Y best bet

Arsenal Win

  • At 11/10, Arsenal Win implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 49%.
  • Defensive Authority: Home Goals Conceded
  • Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Fulham.
  • Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Arsenal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Arsenal sit 1 in the table, while Fulham sit 11, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 49% for Arsenal Win sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Fulham. Defensive Authority: Home Goals Conceded

Model chance vs price49% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Neutral
Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Defensive Authority: Home Goals ConcededArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Arsenal Win is the preferred angle because defensive Authority: Home Goals Conceded Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Fulham. There is a risk here.

Main risk

There is a risk here.

Key Data Signals

Arsenal Win evidence

Defensive Authority: Home Goals Conceded

Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Fulham.

Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Arsenal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Arsenal sit 1 in the table, while Fulham sit 11, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Arsenal Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Arsenal1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Fulham0.8
    Arsenal0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Fulham0.6
    Arsenal40%
    BTTS rate
    Fulham20%
    Arsenal40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Fulham20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Arsenal

    WLLWW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    25 Apr 2026H Newcastle1-0
    19 Apr 2026A Manchester City1-2
    11 Apr 2026H Bournemouth1-2
    14 Mar 2026H Everton2-0
    04 Mar 2026A Brighton1-0

    Fulham

    WDLWD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    25 Apr 2026H Aston Villa1-0
    18 Apr 2026A Brentford0-0
    11 Apr 2026A Liverpool0-2
    21 Mar 2026H Burnley3-1
    15 Mar 2026A Nottingham Forest0-0
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetfred guide price · Model 49% vs implied 68% · edge -18.4 pts
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
    1.08
    Check odds @ 1.08
    Arsenal Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Arsenal8538267544
    11Fulham523815716-4
    Arsenal sit in position 1, while Fulham sit in position 11, so table pressure belongs in the Arsenal Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetfred guide price · Model 49% vs implied 68% · edge -18.4 pts
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 42%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 56%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Arsenal Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Arsenal to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Arsenal6.6
    Avg corners for
    Fulham4.8
    Arsenal10.2
    Avg total corners
    Fulham11
    Arsenal1.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Fulham1.6
    Arsenal13.4
    Avg shots
    Fulham14
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 50% · edge +6.2 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Arsenal wins
    3Draws
    1Fulham wins
    18 Oct 2025Fulham v Arsenal0-1
    01 Apr 2025Arsenal v Fulham2-1
    08 Dec 2024Fulham v Arsenal1-1
    31 Dec 2023Fulham v Arsenal2-1
    26 Aug 2023Arsenal v Fulham2-2
    12 Mar 2023Fulham v Arsenal0-3
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetfred guide price · Model 49% vs implied 68% · edge -18.4 pts
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 42%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Arsenal to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Arsenal38
    Played
    Fulham38
    Arsenal1.9
    Avg goals for
    Fulham1.2
    Arsenal0.7
    Avg goals against
    Fulham1.3
    Arsenal19
    Clean sheets
    Fulham9
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetfred guide price · Model 49% vs implied 68% · edge -18.4 pts
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Load more odds for this section
    Arsenal Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Season data supports Arsenal to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Arsenal Over 2.5
    20%Fulham Over 2.5
    2.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Arsenal sit at 40% and Fulham sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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    Betting context

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