Football Stats Hub

Arsenal crestArsenal
v
Chelsea crestChelsea

Premier League | Sun 06 Sep, 16:30

Arsenal v Chelsea Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 23:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Arsenal face Chelsea in Premier League on Sun 06 Sep, 16:30. Arsenal have scored two goals from 60 league attempts and 5.9 xG, leaving their 3.3% conversion rate as the clearest concern entering Stamford Bridge. Chelsea's unbeaten home record when leading supports their chances to secure victory here.

BT4Y best bet

Chelsea (W) to win

  • At 11/8, Chelsea (W) to win implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • And conceded 1.3 xGA.
  • Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Chelsea (W) to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Arsenal sit 2 in the table, while Chelsea sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 50% for Chelsea (W) to win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Chelsea (W) to win angle more than a raw possession edge. and conceded 1.3 xGA.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Positive
Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Arsenal sit 2 in the table, while Chelsea sit 5.Visible data support
Positive
and conceded 1.3 xGA.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Arsenal Win is the preferred angle because and conceded 1.3 xGA. Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Arsenal Win angle more than a raw possession edge. It covers two of the three possible match outcomes, reducing risk in exchange for a significantly shorter price.

Main risk

It covers two of the three possible match outcomes, reducing risk in exchange for a significantly shorter price.

Key Data Signals

Chelsea (W) to win evidence

And conceded 1.3 xGA.

Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Arsenal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Arsenal sit 2 in the table, while Chelsea sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Chelsea (W) to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Arsenal2
    Avg goals scored
    Chelsea3.5
    Arsenal0
    Avg goals conceded
    Chelsea2.5
    Arsenal0%
    BTTS rate
    Chelsea100%
    Arsenal50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Chelsea100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 88% vs implied 83% · edge +4.7 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 1.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 50% for Arsenal and 100% for Chelsea, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Premier League hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 59% · edge -9 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Arsenal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Arsenal to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Arsenal

    WW
    Last 52W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 0L
    31 Aug 2026A Aston Villa1-0
    21 Aug 2026H Coventry3-0

    Chelsea

    WW
    Last 52W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 0L
    30 Aug 2026H Brighton4-3
    24 Aug 2026A Fulham3-2
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 59% · edge -9 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Arsenal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Arsenal Over 2.5
    100%Chelsea Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Arsenal sit at 50% and Chelsea sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Loading deeper match data…