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Arsenal crestArsenal
v
Burnley crestBurnley

Premier League | Mon 18 May, 20:00

Arsenal v Burnley Stats

Data last updated: Sun 07 Jun 2026, 08:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Arsenal face Burnley in Premier League on Mon 18 May, 20:00. Title Chokehold: Arsenal have kept clean sheets in each of their last 3 league victories, prioritizing control over flair.

BT4Y lean · price warning

With 70%+ possession and register 5+ shots inside the first 20 minutes → THEN consider "Arsenal Win & Under 3

  • At 1.09, Arsenal Win implies roughly 92%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • ▶ IF Arsenal pin Burnley back with 70%+ possession and register 5+ shots inside the first 20 minutes → THEN consider "Arsenal Win &.
  • Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 1 for Burnley.
  • Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Arsenal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Arsenal sit 1 in the table, while Burnley sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

With 70%+ possession and register 5+ shots inside the first 20 minutes → THEN consider "Arsenal Win & Under 3 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 92% while the model sits nearer 74% (-17.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +24.7 pts edge at 2.38.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 74% for Arsenal Win sits against roughly 92% implied by the current price. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 1 for Burnley. ▶ IF Arsenal pin Burnley back with 70%+ possession and register 5+ shots inside the first 20 minutes → THEN consider "Arsenal Win &.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 92% implied
Negative
Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
▶ IF Arsenal pin Burnley back with 70%+ possession.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Arsenal Win is the preferred angle because ▶ IF Arsenal pin Burnley back with 70%+ possession and register 5+ shots inside the first 20 minutes → THEN consider "Arsenal Win & Under 3. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 1 for Burnley. Failing to score more than once in 10 of their last 11 games shows a deliberate preference for risk aversion.

Main risk

Failing to score more than once in 10 of their last 11 games shows a deliberate preference for risk aversion.

Key Data Signals

Arsenal Win evidence

▶ IF Arsenal pin Burnley back with 70%+ possession and register 5+ shots inside the first 20 minutes.

Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 1 for Burnley.

Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Arsenal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Arsenal sit 1 in the table, while Burnley sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Arsenal Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Arsenal5.6
    Avg corners for
    Burnley3.4
    Arsenal9.4
    Avg total corners
    Burnley9.4
    Arsenal1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Burnley1.6
    Arsenal13.6
    Avg shots
    Burnley9.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +12.9 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Premier League hubfull betting preview for Arsenal v Burnleycorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Arsenal1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Burnley0.8
    Arsenal0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Burnley2.4
    Arsenal40%
    BTTS rate
    Burnley60%
    Arsenal60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Burnley60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 42% · edge +24.7 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 92% · edge -17.7 pts
    1.09
    Check odds @ 1.09
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Arsenal to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Arsenal

    WWWLL
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 1D 2L
    10 May 2026A West Ham1-0
    02 May 2026H Fulham3-0
    25 Apr 2026H Newcastle1-0
    19 Apr 2026A Manchester City1-2
    11 Apr 2026H Bournemouth1-2

    Burnley

    DLLLL
    Last 50W 1D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 3D 7L
    10 May 2026H Aston Villa2-2
    01 May 2026A Leeds1-3
    22 Apr 2026H Manchester City0-1
    19 Apr 2026A Nottingham Forest1-4
    11 Apr 2026H Brighton0-2
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 92% · edge -17.7 pts
    1.09
    Check odds @ 1.09
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Arsenal wins
    3Draws
    1Burnley wins
    01 Nov 2025Burnley v Arsenal0-2
    17 Feb 2024Burnley v Arsenal0-5
    11 Nov 2023Arsenal v Burnley3-1
    23 Jan 2022Arsenal v Burnley0-0
    18 Sep 2021Burnley v Arsenal0-1
    06 Mar 2021Burnley v Arsenal1-1
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 92% · edge -17.7 pts
    1.09
    Check odds @ 1.09
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Arsenal to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Arsenal38
    Played
    Burnley38
    Arsenal1.9
    Avg goals for
    Burnley1
    Arsenal0.7
    Avg goals against
    Burnley2
    Arsenal19
    Clean sheets
    Burnley4
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 92% · edge -17.7 pts
    1.09
    Check odds @ 1.09
    Season data supports Arsenal to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Arsenal8538267544
    19Burnley223841024-37
    Arsenal sit in position 1, while Burnley sit in position 19, so table pressure belongs in the Arsenal Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Arsenal Over 2.5
    60%Burnley Over 2.5
    2.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Arsenal sit at 60% and Burnley sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Arsenal v Burnley prediction

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    Premier League hubPremier League hubfull betting preview for Arsenal v Burnleycorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboard

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    Betting context

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