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Arsenal crestArsenal
v
Bournemouth crestBournemouth

Premier League | Sat 12 Dec, 15:00

Arsenal v Bournemouth Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 14:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Arsenal face Bournemouth in Premier League on Sat 12 Dec, 15:00. Arsenal are dominant at the Emirates, winning 80% of home league games. However, Bournemouth are in a 12-match unbeaten run and score consistently. Can Arsenal’s home control break Bournemouth’s stubborn unbeaten run?

BT4Y best bet

The winner (Arsenal)

  • At 2/1, The winner (Arsenal) implies roughly 33%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • Defensive Reliability: Goals Conceded
  • Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 3 for Bournemouth.
  • Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the The winner (Arsenal) angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Arsenal sit 2 in the table, while Bournemouth sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 48% for The winner (Arsenal) sits against roughly 33% implied by the current price. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 3 for Bournemouth. Defensive Reliability: Goals Conceded

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 33% implied
Strong positive
Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points.Visible data support
Positive
Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Defensive Reliability: Goals ConcededArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Arsenal Win is the preferred angle because defensive Reliability: Goals Conceded Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 3 for Bournemouth. For Bournemouth, the risk is more obvious.

Main risk

For Bournemouth, the risk is more obvious.

Key Data Signals

The winner (Arsenal) evidence

Defensive Reliability: Goals Conceded

Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 3 for Bournemouth.

Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Arsenal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Arsenal sit 2 in the table, while Bournemouth sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

The winner (Arsenal) notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Arsenal1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Bournemouth1.2
    Arsenal0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Bournemouth1.6
    Arsenal20%
    BTTS rate
    Bournemouth80%
    Arsenal60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bournemouth60%

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Arsenal

    LWWWW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 0D 1L
    19 Sep 2026A Brighton0-3
    12 Sep 2026A Sunderland2-0
    06 Sep 2026H Chelsea2-1
    31 Aug 2026A Aston Villa1-0
    21 Aug 2026H Coventry3-0

    Bournemouth

    LDDDL
    Last 50W 3D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 3D 2L
    20 Sep 2026H Liverpool0-1
    12 Sep 2026H Brentford2-2
    05 Sep 2026A Newcastle2-2
    29 Aug 2026H Everton1-1
    23 Aug 2026A Manchester City1-2

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    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Arsenal Over 2.5
    60%Bournemouth Over 2.5
    3.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Arsenal sit at 60% and Bournemouth sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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