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Arezzo crestArezzo
v
Benevento crestBenevento

Serie B | Sat 24 Oct, 18:30

Arezzo v Benevento Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Benevento visiting Arezzo in a tightly contested matchup between two mid-table sides separated by a single point. Benevento arrives with a slightly stronger recent record, having secured 10 points from their last five games compared to Arezzo's 7. Benevento's attack is more potent, averaging 1.6 goals per game, while Arezzo has struggled defensively, conceding 2 goals per match on average. Both teams have shown mixed defensive solidity, but Benevento's sharper offensive edge and recent form suggest they hold the initiative in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Benevento to Win

  • Benevento has a 65.7% to win, with positive value at 2.38 .
  • Benevento averages twice as many shots on target per game (5) than Arezzo (2.6).
  • Arezzo concedes 2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Recent form favors Benevento with 10 points from last five matches versus Arezzo's 7.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Benevento to win due to their superior recent form, stronger attacking output averaging 1.6 goals per game, and better defensive record conceding only 0.8 goals per game compared to Arezzo's 2.0. Benevento's higher shots on target and more consistent point accumulation underpin a 65.7% win probability, reflecting a clear statistical edge. This pick is supported by solid data without price warnings, making it a standard stake recommendation.

Recent FormBenevento 10 points vs Arezzo 7 points
Strong positive
Goals ForBenevento 1.6 vs Arezzo 0.8
Strong positive
Goals AgainstBenevento 0.8 vs Arezzo 2.0
Strong positive
Shots on TargetBenevento 5.0 vs Arezzo 2.6
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Benevento's tactical discipline and sharper attack give them the upper hand in this Serie B fixture. Their recent form and defensive solidity contrast with Arezzo's struggles at the back, making Benevento the favored winner based on both football reasoning and statistical trends.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Benevento's blend of attacking efficiency and defensive stability positions them well to capitalize on Arezzo's defensive lapses, making them the logical choice for victory in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Benevento to Win evidence

Benevento has a 65.7% to win, with positive value at 2.38 .

Benevento averages twice as many shots on target per game (5) than Arezzo (2.6).

Arezzo concedes 2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Recent form favors Benevento with 10 points from last five matches versus Arezzo's 7.

What To Watch In The Data

Benevento to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Benevento's games have featured fewer over 2.5 goal outcomes (40%) compared to Arezzo's 60%, but Benevento's stronger attack and Arezzo's defensive struggles suggest this fixture could see a higher tempo and goal count, aligning with an over 2.5 goals trend potential.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Arezzo0.8
Avg goals scored
Benevento1.6
Arezzo2
Avg goals conceded
Benevento0.8
Arezzo40%
BTTS rate
Benevento40%
Arezzo60%
Over 2.5 goals
Benevento40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 57% · edge +2 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Both teams have moderate BTTS rates at 40%, but Benevento's higher goal-scoring average (1.6) versus Arezzo's lower output (0.8) indicates a match likely to feature goals primarily from Benevento. The over 2.5 goals rate is higher for Arezzo (60%) but their defensive frailty could lead to a higher-scoring game favoring the away side.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Arezzo

WDLWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 3L
18 Oct 2026A Sampdoria2-1
10 Oct 2026H Cremonese0-0
20 Sep 2026H Sudtirol1-4
11 Sep 2026A Empoli1-0
06 Sep 2026A Hellas Verona0-5

Benevento

DWWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
17 Oct 2026H Vicenza Virtus2-2
10 Oct 2026H Cesena2-0
19 Sep 2026A Carrarese1-0
11 Sep 2026H Hellas Verona3-1
05 Sep 2026A Ascoli0-1
Market aligned with main pickBenevento to WinBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Benevento Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Benevento's recent form shows greater consistency with 10 points from the last five matches compared to Arezzo's 7 points. Benevento's ability to both score and defend effectively in recent games underpins their favored status, while Arezzo's defensive concessions highlight vulnerabilities that Benevento can exploit.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBenevento to WinBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Benevento Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 57% for Benevento to Win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Benevento have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Arezzo.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Arezzo Over 2.5
40%Benevento Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Benevento's games have featured fewer over 2.5 goal outcomes (40%) compared to Arezzo's 60%, but Benevento's stronger attack and Arezzo's defensive struggles suggest this fixture could see a higher tempo and goal count, aligning with an over 2.5 goals trend potential.

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