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Ararat-Armenia crestArarat-Armenia
v
AZ Alkmaar crestAZ Alkmaar

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 17:45

Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 13:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa League clash features Ararat-Armenia hosting AZ Alkmaar in a fixture where both sides have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Ararat-Armenia have scored in 75% of recent matches yet conceded twice in their last outings, while AZ Alkmaar maintain a balanced approach with a solid attack averaging 13 shots per game and a defense conceding just once recently. The match promises open play with both teams seeking to assert themselves in European competition, making goal exchanges likely despite the tactical discipline expected from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Ararat-Armenia have a 75% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating frequent goal concessions and scoring.
  • AZ Alkmaar averages 13 shots and 4.5 shots on target per game, showing strong offensive pressure.
  • Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting openness in play.
  • No previous head-to-head meetings, so form and style will dictate the match flow.
  • Key players like M. Meerdink and Sandro Lima provide goal threats for their respective teams.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 75% chance for both teams to score, supported by Ararat-Armenia's high BTTS rate of 75% and AZ Alkmaar's potent attacking stats, including an average of 13 shots per game. The price at 1.67 offers positive value with a 15.1% edge, reflecting the likelihood of goals at both ends given the teams' offensive tendencies and defensive lapses. This match's open nature and attacking roles of key players reinforce the strong probability of goals from both sides.

Ararat-Armenia BTTS Rate75% recent matches
Strong positive
AZ Alkmaar Offensive Pressure13 shots per game, 4.5 SOT
Strong positive
Model Probability74.9% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Price Value Edge74.9% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
No Head-to-Head DataNo prior meetings
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown a willingness to attack but also vulnerabilities at the back, making both teams to score a logical choice. AZ Alkmaar's consistent shot volume and Ararat-Armenia's tendency to concede complement this view, suggesting a lively game with goals at both ends.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“The attacking profiles of both sides, combined with their defensive gaps, make a strong case for goals from both teams in this Europa League encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Ararat-Armenia have a 75% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating frequent goal concessions and scoring.

AZ Alkmaar averages 13 shots and 4.5 shots on target per game, showing strong offensive pressure.

Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting openness in play.

No previous head-to-head meetings, so form and style will dictate the match flow.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last five matches for both teams, the rate of Over 2.5 Goals stands at 50%, indicating a moderate frequency of higher-scoring games.
  • This trend, combined with attacking styles and defensive vulnerabilities, suggests the match tempo will favor goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ararat-Armenia1
Avg goals scored
AZ Alkmaar1
Ararat-Armenia2
Avg goals conceded
AZ Alkmaar1
Ararat-Armenia75%
BTTS rate
AZ Alkmaar50%
Ararat-Armenia50%
Over 2.5 goals
AZ Alkmaar50%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 29%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Recent form shows Ararat-Armenia scoring and conceding in 75% of matches, while AZ Alkmaar also has a 50% BTTS rate. Both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive lapses create a fertile environment for goals at both ends, reinforcing the BTTS selection.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Ararat-Armenia to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
AZ Alkmaar to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Ararat-Armenia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 74.9% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Ararat-Armenia show a 75% BTTS rate and AZ Alkmaar show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ararat-Armenia

LLWD
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
15 Oct 2026A Jagiellonia1-3
16 Sep 2026H Sparta Praha1-4
27 Aug 2026H Universitatea Craiova1-0
20 Aug 2026A Universitatea Craiova1-1

AZ Alkmaar

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
15 Oct 2026H Hapoel Beer Sheva2-1
16 Sep 2026A Sunderland0-1
Best odds for this sectionAZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 51% · edge +9.9 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Ararat-Armenia to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
AZ Alkmaar to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Ararat-Armenia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Ararat-Armenia have earned 4 points recently with a 75% BTTS rate, showing they both score and concede regularly. AZ Alkmaar's 3 points and 50% BTTS rate reflect a balanced but open approach. Both teams' recent matches suggest a pattern of goal exchanges, supporting the BTTS pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Ararat-Armenia Over 2.5
50%AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches for both teams, the rate of Over 2.5 Goals stands at 50%, indicating a moderate frequency of higher-scoring games. This trend, combined with attacking styles and defensive vulnerabilities, suggests the match tempo will favor goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.

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