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Ararat-Armenia crestArarat-Armenia
v
AZ Alkmaar crestAZ Alkmaar

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 17:45

Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 21:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ararat-Armenia face AZ Alkmaar in UEFA Europa League on Thu 22 Oct, 17:45. Manuel Tulipa's side have endured a difficult introduction to the league phase, losing both opening fixtures, but their impressive domestic form offers encouragement against Dutch opponents struggling for consistency away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap +1

  • At 7/1, Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap +1 implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
  • AZ Alkmaar have conceded in seven of their last eight fixtures, exposing persistent defensive weaknesses.
  • Ararat-Armenia have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for AZ Alkmaar.
  • AZ Alkmaar have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap +1 angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 28% for Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap +1 sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. Ararat-Armenia have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar have conceded in seven of their last eight fixtures, exposing persistent defensive weaknesses.

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 13% implied
Strong positive
Ararat-Armenia have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
AZ Alkmaar have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
AZ Alkmaar have conceded in seven of their last.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: AZ Alkmaar Win is the preferred angle because aZ Alkmaar have conceded in seven of their last eight fixtures, exposing persistent defensive weaknesses. Ararat-Armenia have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for AZ Alkmaar. However, the visitors possess greater attacking depth and have already demonstrated their ability to recover from setbacks in Europe.

Main risk

However, the visitors possess greater attacking depth and have already demonstrated their ability to recover from setbacks in Europe.

Key Data Signals

Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap +1 evidence

AZ Alkmaar have conceded in seven of their last eight fixtures, exposing persistent defensive weaknesses.

Ararat-Armenia have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for AZ Alkmaar.

AZ Alkmaar have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the AZ Alkmaar Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap +1 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Ararat-Armenia1
    Avg goals scored
    AZ Alkmaar1
    Ararat-Armenia2
    Avg goals conceded
    AZ Alkmaar1
    Ararat-Armenia75%
    BTTS rate
    AZ Alkmaar50%
    Ararat-Armenia50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    AZ Alkmaar50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 29%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    UEFA Europa League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaarcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAZ Alkmaar to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 68% · edge -12.9 pts
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 74%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    AZ Alkmaar to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Ararat-Armenia

    LLWD
    Last 51W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 2L
    15 Oct 2026A Jagiellonia1-3
    16 Sep 2026H Sparta Praha1-4
    27 Aug 2026H Universitatea Craiova1-0
    20 Aug 2026A Universitatea Craiova1-1

    AZ Alkmaar

    WL
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    15 Oct 2026H Hapoel Beer Sheva2-1
    16 Sep 2026A Sunderland0-1
    Market aligned with main pickAZ Alkmaar to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 68% · edge -12.9 pts
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Load more odds for this section
    AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Ararat-Armenia Over 2.5
    50%AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ararat-Armenia sit at 50% and AZ Alkmaar sit at 50%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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