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Annecy crestAnnecy
v
Montpellier crestMontpellier

Ligue 2 | Sat 31 Oct, 13:00

Annecy v Montpellier Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Montpellier visits Annecy in a Ligue 2 clash where Montpellier holds a strong position near the top of the table, sitting second with 21 points compared to Annecy's seventh place and 16 points. Montpellier's recent form shows greater defensive solidity, conceding only 0.4 goals per game versus Annecy's 1.4, while maintaining a higher scoring rate. Annecy's attacking style is more open, reflected in their high over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates, suggesting a potentially open game. Montpellier's tactical discipline and efficiency on the road set the stage for a competitive encounter with Montpellier favored to secure victory.

BT4Y best bet

Montpellier to Win

  • Montpellier ranks 2nd with 21 points; Annecy 7th with 16 points.
  • Montpellier concedes just 0.4 goals per game, showing defensive strength.
  • Annecy averages 1.4 goals scored and conceded, indicating open play.
  • Annecy has an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, Montpellier only 40%.
  • Montpellier averages 13.4 shots and 5 corners per game, showing attacking intent.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Montpellier's 70% to win is supported by their superior defensive record, conceding only 0.4 goals per game compared to Annecy's 1.4, and a higher points tally in Ligue 2. Despite Annecy's tendency for high-scoring matches, Montpellier's more efficient attack and solid defense create a strong probability for an away win. The at 2.2 offer positive value given the model's 70% win probability, making Montpellier a confident selection. No data limitations affect this analysis, and the current price reflects good value without caution needed.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthMontpellier concedes 0.4 goals/game
Strong positive
Recent PointsMontpellier 21 vs Annecy 16
Positive
Annecy's High Scoring Rate80% Over 2.5 goals rate
Neutral
Price vs Model60.5% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Montpellier's tactical discipline and defensive resilience make them the likely winners in this Ligue 2 fixture. Their superior recent form and league standing underpin the in an away victory, while Annecy's openness could test Montpellier's defense but is unlikely to prevent Montpellier from securing three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Montpellier's blend of defensive solidity and efficient attack positions them well to overcome Annecy's aggressive style, especially given their strong away form and league ranking.”

Key Data Signals

Montpellier to Win evidence

Montpellier ranks 2nd with 21 points; Annecy 7th with 16 points.

Montpellier concedes just 0.4 goals per game, showing defensive strength.

Annecy averages 1.4 goals scored and conceded, indicating open play.

Annecy has an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, Montpellier only 40%.

What To Watch In The Data

Montpellier to Win notes

  • Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is low at 0.5, contrasting with Annecy's high over 2.5 goals rate this season.
  • This suggests a tactical battle with potential for a low-scoring game if Montpellier's defense holds, but Annecy's attacking tendencies could push the total higher, making goal totals a key watch point.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Annecy1.4
Avg goals scored
Montpellier1.8
Annecy1.4
Avg goals conceded
Montpellier0.4
Annecy80%
BTTS rate
Montpellier40%
Annecy80%
Over 2.5 goals
Montpellier40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Annecy's matches frequently feature goals, with an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals and BTTS occurrences, indicating open, attacking games. Montpellier's lower over 2.5 and BTTS rates suggest a more controlled approach, so the game could see a mix of attacking intent and defensive discipline, likely producing a moderate goal count.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMontpellier to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Montpellier Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 60.5% for Montpellier to Win sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Montpellier have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 6 for Annecy.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Annecy

WLWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
23 Oct 2026A Sochaux3-1
16 Oct 2026H Nancy1-2
09 Oct 2026A Dunkerque1-0
18 Sep 2026H Dijon1-2
12 Sep 2026A Guingamp1-2

Montpellier

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
26 Oct 2026H RED Star FC 932-1
19 Oct 2026A Rodez3-0
09 Oct 2026H Grenoble2-0
18 Sep 2026A Reims1-1
11 Sep 2026H PAU1-0
Market aligned with main pickMontpellier to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Montpellier Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Montpellier's recent form is superior, accumulating 13 points compared to Annecy's 6 in the latest matches. Their defensive improvements and consistent scoring underpin in their ability to secure a win, while Annecy's form suggests vulnerability despite their attacking output.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Annecy Over 2.5
40%Montpellier Over 2.5
0.5H2H avg goals
Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is low at 0.5, contrasting with Annecy's high over 2.5 goals rate this season. This suggests a tactical battle with potential for a low-scoring game if Montpellier's defense holds, but Annecy's attacking tendencies could push the total higher, making goal totals a key watch point.

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