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Andorra crestAndorra
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Malta crestMalta

UEFA Nations League | Thu 24 Sep, 17:00

Andorra v Malta Stats

Data last updated: Wed 23 Sep 2026, 08:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Andorra and Malta meet in a UEFA Nations League opener marked by low scoring and defensive caution. Andorra's prolonged scoring drought, with just two goals in seven matches and key experienced players absent, contrasts with Malta's modest but steadier attacking returns and unbeaten recent record against Andorra. Both teams have shown limited offensive threat, and their previous encounters have been tight and low-scoring. This match is likely to hinge on defensive solidity and efficiency rather than open attacking play, setting the stage for a cautious contest where goals may be scarce.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 74%, above the 54% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Andorra scored only 2 goals in their last 7 matches, with 6 shutouts.
  • Malta scored in all of their last 5 matches but conceded 10 goals in that span.
  • Malta are unbeaten in 6 meetings against Andorra, with low-scoring results.
  • Previous 2024 Nations League matches between them yielded only 1 goal total.
Price warning

Under 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 74% while the model sits nearer 54% (-19.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 3.5 Goals shows a +15 pts edge at 6.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model supports Under 2.5 Goals based on both teams' limited scoring output and historical low-scoring encounters. Andorra's offensive struggles and Malta's modest goal returns align with a cautious game likely producing few goals. However, the current market price is short compared to the model's chance, indicating a negative . This selection is football-led rather than a pure value bet, and reduced staking or waiting for better is advisable. Improvements in line-ups or late data shifts could enhance value.

Andorra scoring drought2 goals in 7 matches
Strong positive
Malta recent scoring5 goals in last 5 matches
Positive
Historical low-scoring H2H1.25 average goals per match
Strong positive
Market price vs model chanceImplied 75% vs model 60.8% chance
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical pick given Andorra’s ongoing offensive struggles and Malta’s ability to grind out narrow results. The fixture’s history of tight, low-scoring matches and current form data support a cautious game with limited goal-scoring opportunities. This bet reflects the tactical reality of two teams prioritizing defensive discipline over attacking risk.

Main risk

It offered some relief, but the response was a 3-0 defeat away to Kosovo four days later.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Low-scoring tactical matchup

“This fixture is a classic low-scoring affair where defensive organization and efficiency will dominate. Both sides have struggled to convert chances, and their head-to-head history reinforces the likelihood of a tight, under 2.5 goals match.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Andorra scored only 2 goals in their last 7 matches, with 6 shutouts.

Malta scored in all of their last 5 matches but conceded 10 goals in that span.

Malta are unbeaten in 6 meetings against Andorra, with low-scoring results.

Previous 2024 Nations League matches between them yielded only 1 goal total.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last four head-to-head matches between Andorra and Malta average 1.25 goals per game, underscoring a strong trend toward low-scoring affairs.
  • This sample from recent Nations League encounters highlights a tempo and defensive discipline that limit goal opportunities, supporting the under 2.5 goals trend.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Andorra Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Malta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Malta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Andorra to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced short with an implied 75% chance, while the model estimates a 60.8% probability. This indicates a negative , suggesting caution on stake size. the football read remains strong due to both teams' scoring limitations, but better or improved team news would enhance value.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Andorra-
Avg goals scored
Malta-
Andorra-
Avg goals conceded
Malta-
Andorra-
BTTS rate
Malta-
Andorra-
Over 2.5 goals
Malta-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 74% · edge -19.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Both teams have shown limited attacking output recently, with Andorra scoring only twice in seven matches and Malta scoring five in five but conceding frequently. Their head-to-head matches have been low-scoring, supporting a BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals context, emphasizing defensive solidity over open play.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Andorra

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Andorra yet.

Malta

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Malta yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 78% · edge -5 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Andorra Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Malta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Malta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Andorra to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Recent form data shows Andorra’s prolonged scoring drought and Malta’s modest but more consistent goal returns. Andorra’s six shutouts in seven matches contrast with Malta’s ability to score in all recent games, though Malta’s defensive vulnerabilities temper their attacking promise. This form profile aligns with a low-scoring outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Marc Valés stands out for Andorra with a high shot volume (2.73 shots and shots on target per 90 minutes), indicating he is a key offensive outlet despite the team's struggles. Chouaref contributes creativity with 3 key passes per 90 and draws fouls frequently, highlighting his role in generating chances. Both teams rely on a few players for attacking impetus, reflecting their overall limited offensive depth.
Best player marketNacho Quintana Anytime GoalscorerNacho Quintana · 2 goals · 2.06 SOT/90
82/100
Check odds
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Julian Dean Rijkhoff 1+ Shot On TargetJulian Dean Rijkhoff · 2.71 shots on target/90
84/100
Check odds
Stefan Golubovic 2+ ShotsStefan Golubovic · 6.53 shots/90
82/100
Check odds
Moró Sidibe To Assist / Key Pass AngleMoró Sidibe · 2 assists · 3.46 key passes/90
75/100
Check odds
I. Chouaref To Be FouledI. Chouaref · 2.5 fouls won/90
75/100
Check odds
B. Tuma Card RiskB. Tuma · 1 yellows · 3.53 fouls/90
80/100
Check odds
Nacho Quintana
Nacho QuintanaAndorra · Midfielder
Goal threat80/100
Shots /906.18
SOT /902.06
Álex Calvo
Álex CalvoAndorra · Attacker
Goal threat76/100
Shots /905.7
SOT /902.28
Jordi Cano
Jordi CanoAndorra · Attacker
Goal threat56/100
Shots /903.12
SOT /901.04
Julian Dean Rijkhoff
Julian Dean RijkhoffAndorra · Attacker
Goal threat46/100
Shots /904.74
SOT /902.71
Stefan Golubovic
Stefan GolubovicAndorra · Attacker
Goal threat40/100
Shots /906.53
SOT /901.45
B. Tuma
B. TumaMalta · Attacker
Goal threat25/100
Shots /901.76
SOT /901.76
I. Chouaref
I. ChouarefMalta · Attacker
Goal threat33/100
Shots /902.5
SOT /901
E. Akman
E. AkmanAndorra · Midfielder
Goal threat29/100
Shots /901.58
SOT /900.7
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Andorra wins
0Draws
0Malta wins
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Malta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Andorra to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Malta’s unbeaten streak of six matches against Andorra, including clean sheets in recent Nations League games, shows a consistent pattern of defensive control. The low goal totals in these meetings emphasize the difficulty both teams have in breaking down each other, providing a solid historical basis for expecting few goals.
Season team stats

UEFA Nations League

Andorra0
Played
Malta0
Andorra0
Avg goals for
Malta0
Andorra0
Avg goals against
Malta0
Andorra0
Clean sheets
Malta0
Best odds for this sectionAndorra Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 45% vs implied 46% · edge -0.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Malta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Malta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Andorra to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Season-long statistics reveal Andorra’s minimal goal production and strong defensive organisation in recent matches, while Malta’s attack is modest with occasional goals but a leaky defense. These profiles support an under 2.5 goals scenario, as neither team consistently produces high-scoring games.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Malta000000
Both teams start the Nations League campaign with no points, and their close standings reflect a competitive but cautious group phase. The table position adds pressure to avoid defeat but does not suggest aggressive attacking risk, reinforcing a tactical approach favoring defensive caution and low scoring.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Andorra Over 2.5
-Malta Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The last four head-to-head matches between Andorra and Malta average 1.25 goals per game, underscoring a strong trend toward low-scoring affairs. This sample from recent Nations League encounters highlights a tempo and defensive discipline that limit goal opportunities, supporting the under 2.5 goals trend.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Andorra v Malta prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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