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America Mineiro crestAmerica Mineiro
v
Londrina crestLondrina

Serie B | Mon 13 Jul, 23:00

America Mineiro v Londrina Stats

Data last updated: Sun 12 Jul 2026, 03:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Londrina arrives at this Serie B fixture in notably better form and league position than America Mineiro, sitting 16th with 18 points compared to America Mineiro's 20th place and 6 points. Londrina's recent performances have been more productive offensively, averaging 2.4 goals per game, while America Mineiro struggles with just 0.8 goals per match. The away side's tactical setup emphasizes attacking transitions and efficient finishing, which contrasts with America Mineiro's defensive vulnerabilities and limited scoring threat. This match presents a clear opportunity for Londrina to capitalize on their momentum and secure a valuable away victory in a tightly contested league.

BT4Y best bet

Londrina to Win

  • Londrina holds a 70% to win, reflecting strong form and attacking output.
  • America Mineiro has scored only 0.8 goals per game this season, struggling offensively.
  • Londrina averages 12 shots and 4.2 shots on target per game, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Recent form shows Londrina with 10 points versus America Mineiro's 3 in last matches.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.25, suggesting potential for open play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Londrina due to their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and better league standing. Londrina's offensive metrics, including shots and shots on target, outpace America Mineiro's, indicating a stronger attacking threat. Defensive frailties and low scoring output from America Mineiro further enhance Londrina's chances. The data quality is solid for both teams, supporting in this selection. The current do not show warning signs, allowing a standard stake recommendation.

Recent FormLondrina has 10 points vs America Mineiro's 3 in recent matches
Strong positive
Goal ScoringLondrina averages 2.4 goals per game; America Mineiro 0.8
Strong positive
Shots & Shots on TargetLondrina averages 12 shots and 4.2 SOT; America Mineiro 10 shots and 4 SOT
Positive
League StandingsLondrina 16th (18 pts) better than America Mineiro 20th (6 pts)
Positive
Data QualityNo limitations on team data for either side
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Londrina's consistent attacking threat and superior recent form make them the tactical and statistical favorite to win this match. Their ability to generate more shots and goals, combined with America Mineiro's struggles in front of goal, underpins the in an away victory.

Main risk

The main risk is that America Mineiro could improve defensively or capitalize on home advantage, limiting Londrina's scoring opportunities and potentially reducing the expected margin of victory.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Londrina's offensive efficiency and momentum position them well to exploit America Mineiro's defensive weaknesses, making an away win the most probable outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Londrina to Win evidence

Londrina holds a 70% to win, reflecting strong form and attacking output.

America Mineiro has scored only 0.8 goals per game this season, struggling offensively.

Londrina averages 12 shots and 4.2 shots on target per game, indicating offensive pressure.

Recent form shows Londrina with 10 points versus America Mineiro's 3 in last matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Londrina to Win notes

  • In the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.25, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals.
  • This trend supports the potential for an attacking match with scoring opportunities for Londrina, consistent with their season scoring rates.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

America Mineiro0.8
Avg goals scored
Londrina2.4
America Mineiro1
Avg goals conceded
Londrina1
America Mineiro20%
BTTS rate
Londrina40%
America Mineiro40%
Over 2.5 goals
Londrina60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 49% · edge +12.9 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 80%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Both teams have shown differing tendencies in goals and BTTS rates; Londrina has a 40% BTTS rate and 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, while America Mineiro's are lower at 20% and 40% respectively. This suggests Londrina's matches tend to be more open with more goals, supporting a higher-scoring game potential.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

America Mineiro

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 8L
03 Jul 2026A Cuiaba0-1
27 Jun 2026A Operario-PR0-1
24 Jun 2026H Criciuma0-1
17 Jun 2026A Fortaleza EC3-0
09 Jun 2026H Atletico Goianiense1-2

Londrina

WDWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
04 Jul 2026H CRB5-0
26 Jun 2026A Cuiaba2-2
20 Jun 2026H Athletic Club2-0
16 Jun 2026H Avai3-2
06 Jun 2026A Criciuma0-1
Market aligned with main pickLondrina to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 23% · edge +46.9 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
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Londrina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Londrina's recent form is markedly better, securing 10 points in their last matches compared to America Mineiro's 3. This momentum is reflected in their higher goal output and more consistent performances, giving Londrina a psychological and tactical edge.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
16Londrina18165380
20America Mineiro6161312-17
Londrina's 16th place with 18 points contrasts with America Mineiro's 20th and 6 points, highlighting the away side's better position to climb the table. This standing reflects Londrina's stronger overall campaign and adds pressure on America Mineiro to avoid defeat.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLondrina to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 23% · edge +46.9 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Load more odds for this section
Londrina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The current market price for Londrina to win aligns well with the model's 70% chance, indicating a fair value bet without significant price sensitivity. This reflects Londrina's stronger form and attacking metrics compared to America Mineiro.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

America Mineiro3.4
Avg corners for
Londrina4
America Mineiro10
Avg total corners
Londrina12
America Mineiro1.8
Avg yellow cards
Londrina3
America Mineiro10
Avg shots
Londrina11
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Londrina averages slightly more corners (3.6 vs 3.4) and more yellow cards (2.6 vs 1.8), indicating a more aggressive and attacking style that generates set-piece opportunities and fouls. Their higher average shots and shots on target also reflect sustained offensive pressure.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3America Mineiro wins
1Draws
0Londrina wins
08 Nov 2019Londrina v America Mineiro0-1
07 Aug 2019America Mineiro v Londrina4-3
18 Nov 2017Londrina v America Mineiro0-0
02 Aug 2017America Mineiro v Londrina3-2
Market aligned with main pickLondrina to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 23% · edge +46.9 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The four recent meetings between these teams have produced an average of 3.25 goals per game, suggesting a history of open contests. While the sample is limited, this supports the expectation of offensive opportunities, particularly favoring Londrina's stronger attack in this fixture.
Season team stats

Serie B

America Mineiro16
Played
Londrina16
America Mineiro0.6
Avg goals for
Londrina1.5
America Mineiro1.7
Avg goals against
Londrina1.5
America Mineiro2
Clean sheets
Londrina3
Market aligned with main pickLondrina to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 23% · edge +46.9 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Load more odds for this section
Londrina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over the season, Londrina's attack has been more productive, averaging 2.4 goals per game against America Mineiro's 0.8. Defensively, both teams concede around one goal per game, but Londrina's superior scoring ability tilts the balance in their favor for a win.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%America Mineiro Over 2.5
60%Londrina Over 2.5
3.25H2H avg goals
In the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.25, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals. This trend supports the potential for an attacking match with scoring opportunities for Londrina, consistent with their season scoring rates.

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