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America de Cali crestAmerica de Cali
v
Cucuta crestCucuta

Primera A | Sun 25 Oct, 00:05

America de Cali v Cucuta Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Primera A clash features America de Cali hosting Cucuta in a fixture where Cucuta's recent form and tactical setup suggest they can challenge strongly for the win. Cucuta have accumulated 12 points recently with a more effective attack averaging 1.6 goals per match compared to America de Cali's 1.2, while maintaining a tighter defense conceding only 0.8 goals per game. America de Cali's home advantage is tempered by their lower recent points and a higher goals conceded rate. The match promises a tactical battle with Cucuta's efficient offense and disciplined defense potentially tipping the balance in their favor.

BT4Y best bet

Cucuta to Win

  • Cucuta has a 61.8% to win with strong value at 10.0 .
  • Cucuta averages 1.6 goals scored and concedes only 0.8 per game, showing solid balance.
  • America de Cali scores less (1.2 goals per game) and concedes more (1.0), indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Cucuta's recent form yields 12 points versus America de Cali's 8, highlighting momentum advantage.
  • Cucuta's lower average shots (8.4) but higher shot quality supports efficient attacking play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Cucuta to win due to their superior recent form, better goal-scoring efficiency, and tighter defense compared to America de Cali. Cucuta's ability to convert fewer shots into goals and maintain defensive solidity underpins the 61.8% win probability. The price offers strong value given the implied chance is only 10%, making this a compelling selection. No data limitations affect , and the model's high rating of 88 reinforces the pick's robustness.

Recent FormCucuta 12 points vs America de Cali 8
Strong positive
Goal Scoring EfficiencyCucuta 1.6 goals/game, America de Cali 1.2
Positive
Defensive RecordCucuta concedes 0.8 goals/game, America de Cali 1.0
Positive
Price Value25% model chance vs 10% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cucuta's recent momentum and efficient attack provide a tactical edge over America de Cali, who have struggled defensively despite home advantage. The data supports Cucuta's capacity to capitalize on defensive lapses and secure a win. This pick aligns with both form and statistical indicators, making Cucuta a strong contender in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Cucuta

“Cucuta's disciplined defense combined with their clinical finishing makes them a formidable opponent, especially against a home side conceding more goals. Their recent form and goal efficiency suggest they can exploit America de Cali's vulnerabilities effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Cucuta to Win evidence

Cucuta has a 61.8% to win with strong value at 10.0 .

Cucuta averages 1.6 goals scored and concedes only 0.8 per game, showing solid balance.

America de Cali scores less (1.2 goals per game) and concedes more (1.0), indicating defensive vulnerability.

Cucuta's recent form yields 12 points versus America de Cali's 8, highlighting momentum advantage.

What To Watch In The Data

Cucuta to Win notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderately open game.
  • Cucuta’s recent matches have a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting they can contribute to higher scoring games.
  • This trend points to a match with potential for multiple goals, driven by Cucuta’s attacking efficiency and America de Cali’s defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

America de Cali1.2
Avg goals scored
Cucuta1.6
America de Cali1
Avg goals conceded
Cucuta0.8
America de Cali80%
BTTS rate
Cucuta20%
America de Cali40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cucuta60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Goal trends show Cucuta averaging 1.6 goals per game with a lower BTTS rate of 20%, indicating they often win with clean sheets or low concession games. America de Cali’s higher BTTS rate of 80% suggests they concede more often. The combined data points to a match where Cucuta's defense could limit scoring opportunities, favoring a win without high goal totals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

America de Cali

DLWWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
18 Oct 2026A Bucaramanga1-1
12 Oct 2026H Independiente Medellin1-2
05 Oct 2026A Llaneros2-1
24 Sep 2026H Águilas Doradas1-0
21 Sep 2026A Deportes Tolima1-1

Cucuta

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
21 Oct 2026H Atletico Nacional1-0
12 Oct 2026A Chico1-0
04 Oct 2026H Deportivo Pereira4-0
27 Sep 2026H Llaneros2-1
20 Sep 2026A Deportivo Cali0-3
Market aligned with main pickCucuta to WinBetfred guide price · Model 25% vs implied 10% · edge +15 pts
10
Check odds @ 10
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Cucuta Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Cucuta's recent run of 12 points contrasts with America de Cali’s 8, reflecting better momentum and . Cucuta’s ability to convert chances and maintain defensive focus has improved, while America de Cali’s form shows inconsistency, especially in defense. This form gap supports Cucuta’s chances to secure an away victory.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCucuta to WinBetfred guide price · Model 25% vs implied 10% · edge +15 pts
10
Check odds @ 10
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Cucuta Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 25% for Cucuta to Win sits against roughly 10% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Cucuta have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 8 for America de Cali.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%America de Cali Over 2.5
60%Cucuta Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderately open game. Cucuta’s recent matches have a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting they can contribute to higher scoring games. This trend points to a match with potential for multiple goals, driven by Cucuta’s attacking efficiency and America de Cali’s defensive vulnerabilities.

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