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Alverca crestAlverca
v
Casa Pia crestCasa Pia

Primeira Liga | Sat 07 Nov, 18:00

Alverca v Casa Pia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 18:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Alverca hosts Casa Pia in a Primeira Liga clash where Alverca's recent form and home advantage position them as favorites. Alverca has accumulated 11 points, sitting 10th, while Casa Pia lags with 7 points in 17th place. Alverca's attack is more potent, averaging 1.6 goals per game compared to Casa Pia's 1.0, and their defense concedes fewer goals. The tactical setup suggests Alverca will press to control possession and exploit Casa Pia's defensive vulnerabilities, aiming to secure a vital home win in this competitive fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Alverca to Win

  • Alverca leads the standings with 11 points versus Casa Pia's 7, showing stronger league form.
  • Alverca averages 1.6 goals per game, outscoring Casa Pia's 1.0 goals per game.
  • Casa Pia concedes 1.6 goals per match, double Alverca's 0.8, indicating defensive weakness.
  • Alverca averages more shots (13) and shots on target (4.6) than Casa Pia (10.8 shots, 3.2 on target).
  • The model assigns a 64.2% chance for Alverca to win, with positive value at 1.75 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Alverca to win based on superior recent form, stronger offensive output, and more resilient defense. Alverca's higher shot volume and accuracy underline their attacking threat, while Casa Pia's defensive frailties and lower goal production reduce their chances. The 1.75 offer positive value given the 64.2% , making Alverca a solid pick. No data limitations or price warnings apply, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Recent FormAlverca has 11 points vs Casa Pia's 7
Strong positive
Goals For1.6 per game (Alverca) vs 1.0 (Casa Pia)
Strong positive
Goals Against0.8 conceded (Alverca) vs 1.6 (Casa Pia)
Strong positive
Shots & Accuracy13 shots and 4.6 SOT (Alverca) vs 10.8 shots and 3.2 SOT (Casa Pia)
Positive
Model Probability64.2% model chance vs 57.1% implied (+7.1 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Alverca's stronger offensive numbers and better defensive record make them the tactical and statistical favorite to win this match. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with Casa Pia's defensive struggles, supports backing Alverca for the victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Alverca's balanced attack and solid defense create a clear advantage over Casa Pia, whose struggles at the back and lower shot accuracy make them vulnerable in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Alverca to Win evidence

Alverca leads the standings with 11 points versus Casa Pia's 7, showing stronger league form.

Alverca averages 1.6 goals per game, outscoring Casa Pia's 1.0 goals per game.

Casa Pia concedes 1.6 goals per match, double Alverca's 0.8, indicating defensive weakness.

Alverca averages more shots (13) and shots on target (4.6) than Casa Pia (10.8 shots, 3.2 on target).

What To Watch In The Data

Alverca to Win notes

  • In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.67, indicating a relatively open game historically.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 goals this season, suggesting a moderate tempo and goal-scoring potential influenced by attacking intent and defensive lapses.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alverca1.6
Avg goals scored
Casa Pia1
Alverca0.8
Avg goals conceded
Casa Pia1.6
Alverca40%
BTTS rate
Casa Pia40%
Alverca40%
Over 2.5 goals
Casa Pia40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have a 40% rate for BTTS and Over 2.5 goals, indicating a moderate likelihood of goals but also a controlled scoring environment. Alverca's stronger defense and Casa Pia's defensive weaknesses suggest goals may be limited to Alverca's favor, supporting a cautious approach to BTTS markets.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Primeira Liga fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAlverca to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 57% · edge +7.1 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Alverca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 64.2% for Alverca to Win sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (+7.1 pts). Alverca have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Casa Pia.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alverca

LLWWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
02 Nov 2026A Benfica0-1
24 Oct 2026H Arouca0-1
12 Oct 2026A Famalicao4-1
19 Sep 2026H Rio Ave1-0
12 Sep 2026A Nacional3-1

Casa Pia

LWLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
30 Oct 2026H Sporting CP0-2
24 Oct 2026A Estrela2-0
10 Oct 2026H Santa Clara0-1
20 Sep 2026A Estoril2-1
12 Sep 2026H FC Porto1-4
Market aligned with main pickAlverca to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 57% · edge +7.1 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Alverca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Alverca's recent form shows 9 points with 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game, reflecting effective offense and defense. Casa Pia's 6 points with 1 goal scored and 1.6 conceded indicate struggles in both areas. This form disparity favors Alverca's chances to secure a home win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Alverca Over 2.5
40%Casa Pia Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.67, indicating a relatively open game historically. Both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 goals this season, suggesting a moderate tempo and goal-scoring potential influenced by attacking intent and defensive lapses.

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