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Altrincham crestAltrincham
v
Carlisle crestCarlisle

National League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Altrincham v Carlisle Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 16:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Altrincham and Carlisle meet in a National League clash where attacking intent is evident from both sides. Altrincham ranks 6th with a solid home scoring rate, while Carlisle sits 9th, boasting a stingy defense but a potent attack. Both teams have shown a propensity for high-scoring games recently, with over 2.5 goals occurring in 60% of their matches. This fixture promises an open contest with potential for multiple goals, reflecting their offensive styles and recent form in a competitive league setting.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season.
  • Altrincham averages 1.4 goals scored per game, Carlisle 2.0, indicating strong attacking output.
  • Head-to-head meetings have averaged 3.5 goals per game, supporting a high-scoring outlook.
  • Carlisle concedes only 0.4 goals per game, but Altrincham’s attacking pressure could challenge this.
  • The model estimates a 50.6% chance for over 3.5 goals, with positive value at 2.38 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet due to the attacking strengths and recent scoring trends of both teams. Altrincham and Carlisle have consistently been involved in high-scoring matches, with a combined over 2.5 goals rate of 60% each and a high average goals tally in their recent head-to-heads. Carlisle’s strong defense is offset by Altrincham’s offensive pressure, creating a scenario ripe for multiple goals. The reflect an implied chance lower than the model’s 50.6% probability, indicating a positive without price warnings.

Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate60% for both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.5 goals per match
Strong positive
Altrincham Goals For per Game1.4 goals
Positive
Carlisle Goals For per Game2.0 goals
Positive
Carlisle Goals Against per Game0.4 goals
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Altrincham’s offensive efforts challenge Carlisle’s solid defense. The recent form and head-to-head data suggest multiple goals are likely, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection based on both tactical openness and statistical trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical balance

“This fixture features two teams with contrasting defensive solidity and attacking ambition, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The balance between Altrincham’s forward momentum and Carlisle’s defensive resilience makes Over 3.5 Goals an intriguing market to watch.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season.

Altrincham averages 1.4 goals scored per game, Carlisle 2.0, indicating strong attacking output.

Head-to-head meetings have averaged 3.5 goals per game, supporting a high-scoring outlook.

Carlisle concedes only 0.4 goals per game, but Altrincham’s attacking pressure could challenge this.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored was 3.5 per game, indicating a trend toward open, high-scoring matches.
  • This recent sample suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to over 2.5 goals, reinforcing the case for a goal-rich encounter in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Altrincham1.4
Avg goals scored
Carlisle2
Altrincham1
Avg goals conceded
Carlisle0.4
Altrincham60%
BTTS rate
Carlisle40%
Altrincham60%
Over 2.5 goals
Carlisle60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 42% · edge +8.6 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 87%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Altrincham averaging 1.4 goals and Carlisle 2.0 per game. The head-to-head average of 3.5 goals further supports a high-scoring scenario. While Carlisle concedes few goals, Altrincham’s attacking pressure and the likelihood of both teams scoring create a strong over 3.5 goals profile.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionCarlisle to WinBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 47% · edge +14.7 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Carlisle Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Altrincham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Altrincham to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
The 50.6% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+8.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Altrincham and 60% for Carlisle, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Altrincham

DWWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 2L
27 Oct 2026H Kidderminster Harriers0-0
24 Oct 2026A Yeovil Town2-1
10 Oct 2026H Aldershot Town3-1
03 Oct 2026A Boreham Wood1-3
29 Sep 2026A Gateshead1-0

Carlisle

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
28 Oct 2026H Harrogate Town3-0
24 Oct 2026A Solihull Moors2-1
10 Oct 2026H Kidderminster Harriers0-0
03 Oct 2026A Aldershot Town3-1
29 Sep 2026A AFC Fylde2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 74% · edge +10.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Carlisle to WinBetUK guide price · model 61%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Carlisle Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Altrincham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Altrincham to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
Recent form shows both teams involved in high-scoring matches, with Altrincham and Carlisle each having a 60% over 2.5 goals rate. Altrincham’s 10 points and Carlisle’s 13 points in recent matches reflect momentum that favors offensive output and goal-rich encounters.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Altrincham Over 2.5
60%Carlisle Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored was 3.5 per game, indicating a trend toward open, high-scoring matches. This recent sample suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to over 2.5 goals, reinforcing the case for a goal-rich encounter in this fixture.

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