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Almeria crestAlmeria
v
Valladolid crestValladolid

Segunda División | Sun 31 May, 17:30

Almeria v Valladolid Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 04:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Almeria face Valladolid in Segunda División on Sun 31 May, 17:30. Almeria come in with 7 recent points and 2 goals per match, while Valladolid have 6 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • At 2.2, Over 3.5 Cards implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 71%.
  • Almeria have the higher yellow-card average at 2.8, while Valladolid sit at 2.25.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 71% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. Almeria have the higher yellow-card average at 2.8, while Valladolid sit at 2.25.

Model chance vs price71% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Strong positive
Almeria have the higher yellow-card average at 2.8, while Valladolid.Visible data support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +25.3 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 3.5 Cards is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Almeria have the higher yellow-card average at 2.8, while Valladolid sit at 2.25. The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Almeria have the higher yellow-card average at 2.8, while Valladolid sit at 2.25.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Compare both yellow-card averages before treating the card line as value.
  • Check whether match pressure is likely to create fouls and recovery challenges.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Almeria5
Avg corners for
Valladolid6
Almeria10.8
Avg total corners
Valladolid9.25
Almeria2.8
Avg yellow cards
Valladolid2.25
Almeria17.2
Avg shots
Valladolid11.25
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 46% · edge +25.3 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Almeria2
Avg goals scored
Valladolid1
Almeria1.8
Avg goals conceded
Valladolid1.6
Almeria80%
BTTS rate
Valladolid40%
Almeria80%
Over 2.5 goals
Valladolid40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 46% · edge +25.3 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Valladolid Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Valladolid to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Almeria Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Almeria

LLDWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
24 May 2026A Sporting Gijon1-3
16 May 2026H Las Palmas1-2
09 May 2026A Burgos0-0
04 May 2026H Mirandes4-2
26 Apr 2026A Granada CF4-2

Valladolid

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
24 May 2026H Deportivo La Coruna0-2
16 May 2026A Racing Santander1-4
09 May 2026H Zaragoza2-0
03 May 2026A Las Palmas1-2
25 Apr 2026H Real Sociedad II1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 37% · edge +20.4 pts
2.74
Check odds @ 2.74
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Valladolid Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Valladolid to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Almeria Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Almeria to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Almeria wins
4Draws
5Valladolid wins
13 Sep 2025Valladolid v Almeria3-1
28 May 2023Almeria v Valladolid0-0
05 Sep 2022Valladolid v Almeria1-0
16 Apr 2022Valladolid v Almeria2-2
20 Nov 2021Almeria v Valladolid3-1
18 Mar 2018Valladolid v Almeria2-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Valladolid to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Almeria to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Segunda División

Almeria44
Played
Valladolid42
Almeria1.9
Avg goals for
Valladolid1
Almeria1.5
Avg goals against
Valladolid1.4
Almeria9
Clean sheets
Valladolid11
Best odds for this sectionValladolid Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 24% · edge +17.6 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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Valladolid to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Almeria Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Almeria to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Season data supports Valladolid Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Almeria74422281218
17Valladolid4642121020-13
Almeria sit in position 3, while Valladolid sit in position 17, so table pressure belongs in the Over 3.5 Cards assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Almeria Over 2.5
40%Valladolid Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Almeria sit at 80% and Valladolid sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Competition and hubs

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Betting context

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