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Almeria crestAlmeria
v
Oviedo crestOviedo

Segunda División | Sat 24 Oct, 20:00

Almeria v Oviedo Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Almeria hosts Oviedo in a Segunda División clash where the home side leads the table with 24 points, showcasing strong form and defensive solidity. Almeria has conceded just 0.6 goals per game recently, while Oviedo sits ninth with 17 points and a more porous defense conceding 1.8 goals per match. Almeria's tactical discipline and home advantage position them as favorites, though Oviedo's attacking threat and recent goal-scoring form add intrigue to this encounter under the lights.

BT4Y best bet

Almeria to Win

  • Almeria leads the league and has the best defensive record recently, conceding only 0.6 goals per game.
  • Oviedo has a higher BTTS rate (80%) and over 2.5 goals rate (80%), indicating open games involving them.
  • Almeria averages 15.4 shots per match with 5.8 on target, showing offensive pressure.
  • Oviedo's key midfielder D. Menendez is highly active with 12 shots and 6 shots on target per 90 minutes, posing a threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Almeria to win, reflecting their top-table status and superior defensive record. Almeria's ability to limit opponents to just 0.6 goals per game contrasts with Oviedo's 1.8 goals conceded, highlighting a defensive edge. The home side's consistent offensive output and control of matches underpin the in their victory. No price warnings apply, and the current offer positive value with a 12.3% edge over the implied chance. Player data further supports Almeria's balanced attack and defensive resilience.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthAlmeria concedes 0.6 goals per game vs Oviedo's 1.8
Strong positive
Offensive OutputAlmeria averages 15.4 shots and 5.8 on target per game
Positive
Price Value Edge74% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+12.3 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Almeria's defensive discipline and league-leading form make them the logical choice to win this fixture. Their ability to control games and limit chances contrasts with Oviedo's more open style, which has led to more goals conceded. This tactical and form advantage underpins the in Almeria securing victory at home.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Almeria's top position is built on a solid defense and efficient attack, making them strong favorites. Oviedo's attacking flair adds some uncertainty, but the home side's consistency should prevail.”

Key Data Signals

Almeria to Win evidence

Almeria leads the league and has the best defensive record recently, conceding only 0.6 goals per game.

Oviedo has a higher BTTS rate (80%) and over 2.5 goals rate (80%), indicating open games involving them.

Almeria averages 15.4 shots per match with 5.8 on target, showing offensive pressure.

Oviedo's key midfielder D. Menendez is highly active with 12 shots and 6 shots on target per 90 minutes, posing a threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Almeria to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating moderately open games.
  • Oviedo's recent high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) suggests a tendency toward higher-scoring encounters, while Almeria's more balanced approach tempers this.
  • The trend points to a game with goal opportunities but controlled tempo from Almeria.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Almeria2.4
Avg goals scored
Oviedo1.8
Almeria0.6
Avg goals conceded
Oviedo1.8
Almeria40%
BTTS rate
Oviedo80%
Almeria60%
Over 2.5 goals
Oviedo80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Oviedo's matches have a high frequency of both teams scoring (80%) and over 2.5 goals (80%), indicating open, attacking games. Almeria's lower BTTS rate (40%) and moderate over 2.5 rate (60%) suggest a more controlled approach. This contrast hints at a game where Oviedo pushes forward, but Almeria's defense could limit scoring, making goals likely but with a defensive edge.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAlmeria to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Almeria Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 74% for Almeria to Win sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+12.3 pts). Almeria have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 9 for Oviedo.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Almeria

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 0D 2L
17 Oct 2026A Real Sociedad II4-2
11 Oct 2026H Leganes3-0
03 Oct 2026H Burgos2-1
27 Sep 2026A Mallorca1-0
20 Sep 2026H Celta de Vigo II2-0

Oviedo

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
18 Oct 2026A AD Ceuta FC2-1
12 Oct 2026H Eibar3-1
02 Oct 2026A Eldense1-4
27 Sep 2026H Sporting Gijon2-0
20 Sep 2026A Sabadell1-3
Market aligned with main pickAlmeria to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Almeria Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Almeria's recent form is strong, accumulating 15 points with a solid defense conceding just 0.6 goals per game. Oviedo has collected 9 points but concedes thrice as many goals per match, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities. Almeria's consistency and ability to control games underpin their favored status in this matchup.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Almeria Over 2.5
80%Oviedo Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating moderately open games. Oviedo's recent high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) suggests a tendency toward higher-scoring encounters, while Almeria's more balanced approach tempers this. The trend points to a game with goal opportunities but controlled tempo from Almeria.

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