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Alcione crestAlcione
v
Desenzano Calvina crestDesenzano Calvina

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 18 Oct, 16:30

Alcione v Desenzano Calvina Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone A clash features Desenzano Calvina visiting Alcione in a tightly contested fixture. Desenzano Calvina currently sit just above Alcione in the standings, with a slight edge in points and defensive solidity. Alcione have struggled to convert chances into goals, while Desenzano Calvina have shown a more balanced approach, conceding fewer goals and maintaining a steadier recent form. Both teams will be motivated to climb the table, but Desenzano Calvina's defensive resilience and recent momentum suggest they can edge this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Desenzano Calvina to Win

  • Desenzano Calvina hold a higher league position and points tally than Alcione.
  • Desenzano Calvina concede fewer goals per game (0.8) compared to Alcione (2.0).
  • Alcione have a higher rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals (60%) than Desenzano Calvina (40%).
  • Desenzano Calvina's recent form shows more points gained (8) than Alcione (4).
  • Head-to-head meetings have been low scoring, averaging 2 goals per match.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Desenzano Calvina to win with a 62.3% chance, reflecting their stronger defensive record and steadier recent form. Despite Alcione's higher over 2.5 goals rate, Desenzano Calvina's ability to limit goals conceded and accumulate points provides a solid foundation for an away victory. The at 2.9 offer positive value given the implied chance is only 34.5%. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability62.3%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance49.5% model chance vs 34.5% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge49.5% model chance vs 34.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsDesenzano Calvina 8 vs Alcione 4
Positive
Goals Conceded Per GameDesenzano Calvina 0.8 vs Alcione 2.0
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Desenzano Calvina's disciplined defensive structure and recent form momentum make them the tactical favorite in this matchup. Their ability to limit goals conceded while securing points underlines their chances to claim victory on the road against a less consistent Alcione side.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form advantage

“Desenzano Calvina's defensive solidity and recent consistency provide a clear tactical edge in this fixture, making them a compelling choice for the win despite playing away.”

Key Data Signals

Desenzano Calvina to Win evidence

Desenzano Calvina hold a higher league position and points tally than Alcione.

Desenzano Calvina concede fewer goals per game (0.8) compared to Alcione (2.0).

Alcione have a higher rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals (60%) than Desenzano Calvina (40%).

Desenzano Calvina's recent form shows more points gained (8) than Alcione (4).

What To Watch In The Data

Desenzano Calvina to Win notes

  • The last three head-to-head meetings have averaged 2 goals per game, indicating generally low-scoring affairs.
  • This trend aligns with Desenzano Calvina's defensive style and suggests the match may not be high scoring, favoring a controlled away win.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alcione1.2
Avg goals scored
Desenzano Calvina1
Alcione2
Avg goals conceded
Desenzano Calvina0.8
Alcione80%
BTTS rate
Desenzano Calvina40%
Alcione60%
Over 2.5 goals
Desenzano Calvina40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Goal trends indicate Alcione's matches often exceed 2.5 goals with an 80% BTTS rate, while Desenzano Calvina's games are more restrained with a 40% BTTS rate. This contrast suggests a tactical battle where Desenzano Calvina's defense could limit scoring, favoring a lower-scoring win.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alcione

DDDLD
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 6D 1L
11 Oct 2026A Lecco1-1
04 Oct 2026H Trento2-2
27 Sep 2026A Albinoleffe1-1
20 Sep 2026H Union Brescia0-4
17 Sep 2026A PRO Vercelli2-2

Desenzano Calvina

WWDDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 2L
10 Oct 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi2-0
03 Oct 2026A Folgore Caratese2-1
26 Sep 2026H Juventus U230-0
21 Sep 2026A Treviso0-0
17 Sep 2026H Lecco1-3
Market aligned with main pickDesenzano Calvina to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Desenzano Calvina's recent form is superior, accumulating 8 points compared to Alcione's 4 in their last matches. This momentum, combined with a tighter defense, suggests they are better positioned to secure a win in this encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDesenzano Calvina to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
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Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
The 49.5% for Desenzano Calvina to Win sits against roughly 34.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Desenzano Calvina have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Alcione.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Alcione Over 2.5
40%Desenzano Calvina Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
The last three head-to-head meetings have averaged 2 goals per game, indicating generally low-scoring affairs. This trend aligns with Desenzano Calvina's defensive style and suggests the match may not be high scoring, favoring a controlled away win.

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