Football Stats Hub

Albinoleffe crestAlbinoleffe
v
Novara crestNovara

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 18 Oct, 16:30

Albinoleffe v Novara Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Albinoleffe and Novara meet in Serie C - Girone A with both sides showing contrasting offensive and defensive traits. Albinoleffe has been involved in high-scoring games recently, boasting a 100% rate of both teams scoring in their matches and an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals. Novara, while more conservative, still concedes regularly and has a 40% BTTS rate. The fixture promises open play with Albinoleffe's attacking intent likely to challenge Novara's defense, setting the stage for a contest where both teams finding the net is a strong possibility.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Albinoleffe has a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating consistent scoring and conceding.
  • Novara concedes an average of 1.4 goals per game, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • The average goals per game in their last 10 meetings is 2.5, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
  • Albinoleffe's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, showing attacking openness.
  • Novara's BTTS rate is 40%, but combined with Albinoleffe's attack, BTTS is likely.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance to both teams scoring, reflecting Albinoleffe's perfect recent BTTS record and Novara's defensive concessions. Albinoleffe's aggressive attack and Novara's susceptibility to conceding create a favorable environment for goals at both ends. The 21.4% and positive pricing at 1.83 indicate a strong betting opportunity. The data quality is solid with no limitations, reinforcing in this selection.

Albinoleffe BTTS Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
Novara Goals Against1.4 per game
Positive
Model Chance69.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge69.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Price69.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+15 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown tendencies to score and concede, especially Albinoleffe with their high BTTS and over 2.5 goals rates. Novara's defensive record suggests they are vulnerable, making a BTTS selection tactically sound and statistically supported. Expect an open game with chances at both ends, aligning well with the BTTS pick.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“Albinoleffe's attacking style combined with Novara's defensive lapses creates a fertile ground for both teams to find the net. This match-up is a classic setup for BTTS, backed by strong recent form and goal trends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Albinoleffe has a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating consistent scoring and conceding.

Novara concedes an average of 1.4 goals per game, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.

The average goals per game in their last 10 meetings is 2.5, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

Albinoleffe's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, showing attacking openness.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, with Albinoleffe's recent matches showing an 80% over 2.5 goals rate.
  • This trend suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities, supporting the BTTS pick as both sides have found the net frequently.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Albinoleffe2.2
Avg goals scored
Novara0.8
Albinoleffe2
Avg goals conceded
Novara1.4
Albinoleffe100%
BTTS rate
Novara40%
Albinoleffe80%
Over 2.5 goals
Novara40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Albinoleffe's recent matches have consistently seen both teams score, while Novara concedes regularly despite a lower BTTS rate. Their combined average of 2.5 goals in head-to-head matches supports a goal-rich encounter, making BTTS a logical expectation.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Albinoleffe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Albinoleffe to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Novara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Novara to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
The 69.6% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Albinoleffe show a 100% BTTS rate and Novara show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

player stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Albinoleffe

LWDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 3L
10 Oct 2026A Lumezzane2-3
03 Oct 2026A Cittadella2-1
27 Sep 2026H Alcione1-1
20 Sep 2026A Juventus U235-3
17 Sep 2026H Arzignano Valchiampo1-2

Novara

LWLDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 4L
10 Oct 2026H Cittadella0-2
04 Oct 2026A Dolomiti Bellunesi2-1
26 Sep 2026H Ospitaletto0-2
20 Sep 2026H Athletic Carpi2-2
17 Sep 2026A Lumezzane0-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 84% vs implied 74% · edge +10.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Albinoleffe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Albinoleffe to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Novara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Novara to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Albinoleffe has secured 7 points recently with a strong attacking output of 2.2 goals per game and a perfect BTTS record. Novara's form is more modest with 5 points and 0.8 goals per game but concedes 1.4 goals, supporting the likelihood of both teams scoring.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Albinoleffe Over 2.5
40%Novara Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, with Albinoleffe's recent matches showing an 80% over 2.5 goals rate. This trend suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities, supporting the BTTS pick as both sides have found the net frequently.

Loading deeper match data…