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Alaves crestAlaves
v
Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano

La Liga | Sun 18 Apr, 16:00

Alaves v Rayo Vallecano Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 05:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Alaves face Rayo Vallecano in La Liga on Sun 18 Apr, 16:00. Rayo Vallecano return home on Thursday carrying the frustration of an opening-day defeat that arrived in the 97th minute, while Alaves travel to Vallecas after starting their La Liga campaign with a 3-0 win over Getafe.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams To Score YES

  • At 21/20, Both Teams To Score YES implies roughly 49%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 64%.
  • This balance supports a Both Teams To Score outcome, despite Rayo's recent clean sheets against Alaves at home.
  • Alaves show a 60% BTTS rate and Rayo Vallecano show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Alaves average 0.6 goals scored and Rayo Vallecano average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 64% for Both Teams To Score YES sits against roughly 49% implied by the current price. Alaves show a 60% BTTS rate and Rayo Vallecano show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. This balance supports a Both Teams To Score outcome, despite Rayo's recent clean sheets against Alaves at home.

Model chance vs price64% model chance against roughly 49% implied
Strong positive
Alaves show a 60% BTTS rate and Rayo Vallecano show.Visible data support
Positive
Alaves average 0.6 goals scored and Rayo Vallecano average 1.Visible data support
Positive
This balance supports a Both Teams To Score outcome.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because this balance supports a Both Teams To Score outcome, despite Rayo's recent clean sheets against Alaves at home. Alaves show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Rayo Vallecano show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. That history should not obscure the visitors’ current attacking numbers, but it does sharpen the challenge.

Main risk

That history should not obscure the visitors’ current attacking numbers, but it does sharpen the challenge.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score YES evidence

This balance supports a Both Teams To Score outcome, despite Rayo's recent clean sheets against Alaves at home.

Alaves show a 60% BTTS rate and Rayo Vallecano show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Alaves average 0.6 goals scored and Rayo Vallecano average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score YES notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alaves0.6
Avg goals scored
Rayo Vallecano1
Alaves1.2
Avg goals conceded
Rayo Vallecano2
Alaves60%
BTTS rate
Rayo Vallecano80%
Alaves40%
Over 2.5 goals
Rayo Vallecano60%

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alaves

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
23 Oct 2026H Malaga1-1
18 Oct 2026A Celta Vigo1-2
10 Oct 2026H Atletico Madrid1-2
19 Sep 2026A Athletic Club0-0
15 Sep 2026H Valencia0-1

Rayo Vallecano

LDDWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 4L
24 Oct 2026H Elche0-3
19 Oct 2026A Getafe1-1
19 Sep 2026A Osasuna1-1
15 Sep 2026H Espanyol2-1
12 Sep 2026A Real Madrid1-4

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Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Alaves Over 2.5
60%Rayo Vallecano Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Alaves sit at 40% and Rayo Vallecano sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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