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Al Riyadh crestAl Riyadh
v
Al Taawon crestAl Taawon

Pro League | Sat 24 Oct, 19:00

Al Riyadh v Al Taawon Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 19:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al Riyadh hosts Al Taawon in a Pro League clash where both sides seek to improve their struggling starts. Al Riyadh, positioned 13th with 9 points, have shown slightly better defensive resilience than Al Taawon, who sit 17th with 4 points. Recent form data highlights Al Riyadh's modest scoring but greater defensive solidity compared to Al Taawon, who have conceded heavily. The tactical battle will likely focus on Al Riyadh leveraging home advantage and a more balanced squad to secure a vital win in this tightly contested fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Al Riyadh to Win

  • Al Riyadh has a model-estimated 67.9% chance to win, with offering strong value at 3.1.
  • Al Riyadh's recent form shows better defensive stats, conceding 1.4 goals per game versus Al Taawon's 2.4.
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates at 20%, indicating a likely tight defensive game.
  • Al Riyadh averages slightly more shots per game (12.8) than Al Taawon (13), but Al Taawon has a higher shots on target rate (3.2).
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Al Riyadh to win based on their superior defensive record and more balanced recent form compared to Al Taawon. Despite modest scoring, Al Riyadh's ability to limit goals conceded (1.4 per game) contrasts with Al Taawon's leaky defense (2.4 per game). The at 3.1 present positive value given the model's 67.9% win probability. Player-level data shows Al Riyadh's attackers like Leandro Antunes and Trézéguet contribute consistent goal threats, supporting the likelihood of a home victory. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability67.9%
Strong positive
Implied Odds Chance47.3% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Defensive StrengthAl Riyadh concedes fewer goals
Positive
Recent FormAl Riyadh better points and goals conceded
Positive
Player Goal ThreatLeandro Antunes and Trézéguet notable contributors
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Al Riyadh's stronger defensive record and home advantage make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their slightly better recent form and attacking contributions from key players like Leandro Antunes provide a solid foundation for a win. Al Taawon's defensive vulnerabilities increase the chance of conceding, supporting in Al Riyadh to win this match.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Al Riyadh's defensive discipline combined with key attacking players stepping up creates a compelling case for their win. Their ability to control the game tempo and limit Al Taawon's chances is crucial in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Al Riyadh to Win evidence

Al Riyadh has a model-estimated 67.9% chance to win, with offering strong value at 3.1.

Al Riyadh's recent form shows better defensive stats, conceding 1.4 goals per game versus Al Taawon's 2.4.

Both teams have low BTTS rates at 20%, indicating a likely tight defensive game.

Al Riyadh averages slightly more shots per game (12.8) than Al Taawon (13), but Al Taawon has a higher shots on target rate (3.2).

What To Watch In The Data

Al Riyadh to Win notes

  • In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • However, recent form and defensive records suggest this fixture may produce fewer goals, with both teams showing low BTTS rates.
  • The trend points to a controlled game with limited goal-scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al Riyadh0.6
Avg goals scored
Al Taawon0.2
Al Riyadh1.4
Avg goals conceded
Al Taawon2.4
Al Riyadh20%
BTTS rate
Al Taawon20%
Al Riyadh20%
Over 2.5 goals
Al Taawon40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have low BTTS rates at 20%, indicating a defensive approach and limited goal-scoring from both sides. Al Riyadh averages 0.6 goals per game while Al Taawon scores 0.2, suggesting a low-scoring match. The head-to-head average of 2.5 goals hints at moderate scoring but recent form favors a tighter contest with fewer goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al Riyadh

LDWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 4L
20 Oct 2026A Al Diriyah0-1
11 Oct 2026A Al-Fayha1-1
13 Sep 2026H Al Kholood2-0
07 Sep 2026A Al Khaleej Saihat0-0
04 Sep 2026A Al-Ahli Jeddah0-5

Al Taawon

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 4D 6L
20 Oct 2026H Al-Qadisiyah FC0-1
17 Oct 2026A Al Diriyah1-1
11 Oct 2026A Al Shabab0-3
12 Sep 2026H Al-Hilal Saudi FC0-6
08 Sep 2026A Al-Hazm0-1
Market aligned with main pickAl Riyadh to WinBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Al Riyadh Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Al Riyadh's recent form shows a better defensive record and more points gained compared to Al Taawon, who have struggled to score and conceded heavily. This form disparity suggests Al Riyadh are more likely to control the match and secure a win, supported by their ability to limit opponents' chances effectively.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAl Riyadh to WinBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Al Riyadh Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 47.3% for Al Riyadh to Win sits against roughly 32.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Al Riyadh have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Al Taawon.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Al Riyadh Over 2.5
40%Al Taawon Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. However, recent form and defensive records suggest this fixture may produce fewer goals, with both teams showing low BTTS rates. The trend points to a controlled game with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

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