Football Stats Hub

Al-Fateh crestAl-Fateh
v
Al Shabab crestAl Shabab

Pro League | Thu 22 Oct, 15:45

Al-Fateh v Al Shabab Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 10:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al-Fateh and Al Shabab meet in a Saudi Pro League clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape expectations. Al-Fateh, struggling near the bottom of the table, have conceded an average of 3 goals per game and boast a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, signaling defensive frailty. Al Shabab, positioned slightly higher, have a more balanced defensive record but still concede over a goal per game. Both teams have shown willingness to attack, with Al-Fateh scoring 1.6 goals per match and Al Shabab 1.2, setting the stage for an open, high-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Al-Fateh have conceded 3 goals per game on average, indicating defensive weaknesses.
  • Al-Fateh’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals 100% of the time this season.
  • Al Shabab concede 1.2 goals per game but maintain a solid attacking output.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 3 goals per game, supporting a high-scoring trend.
  • Both teams average around 12 shots per game, reflecting offensive activity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet with a 50.1% chance against an implied market chance of 42%, yielding an 8.1% . Al-Fateh’s porous defense combined with their high-scoring matches and Al Shabab’s consistent attacking threat underpin this forecast. Both teams’ recent form and shot volumes support the likelihood of multiple goals, making Over 3.5 a compelling selection. No price warnings apply, and standard staking is advised given the positive value and level.

Model Chance50.1% model chance vs 42% implied (+8.1 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance50.1% model chance vs 42% implied (+8.1 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge50.1% model chance vs 42% implied (+8.1 pts)
Strong positive
Al-Fateh Defensive Record3 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Al-Fateh Over 2.5 Rate100% matches
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Al-Fateh’s defensive vulnerabilities likely to be exploited by Al Shabab’s attacking players. The combination of Al-Fateh’s high concession rate and both teams’ offensive activity suggests a match prone to multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a tactically and statistically sound pick.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking and defensive dynamics

“Al-Fateh’s defensive struggles and Al Shabab’s attacking intent create a fertile ground for a high-scoring game. The statistical indicators strongly favor a lively encounter with plenty of goalmouth action.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Al-Fateh have conceded 3 goals per game on average, indicating defensive weaknesses.

Al-Fateh’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals 100% of the time this season.

Al Shabab concede 1.2 goals per game but maintain a solid attacking output.

Recent head-to-head matches average 3 goals per game, supporting a high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters.
  • Combined with recent form and season data, this trend suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities, aligning well with the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al-Fateh1.6
Avg goals scored
Al Shabab1.2
Al-Fateh3
Avg goals conceded
Al Shabab1.2
Al-Fateh80%
BTTS rate
Al Shabab40%
Al-Fateh100%
Over 2.5 goals
Al Shabab60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 42% · edge +8.1 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Al-Fateh’s matches have consistently featured multiple goals, with an 80% BTTS rate and 100% Over 2.5 rate, highlighting open play and defensive lapses. Al Shabab’s lower BTTS rate of 40% reflects a more cautious approach, but their average goals conceded and scored still support a goal-rich fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 64% · edge +4.4 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Al Shabab to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Al Shabab Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Al-Fateh Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Al-Fateh to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
The 50.1% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+8.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Al-Fateh and 60% for Al Shabab, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al-Fateh

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
18 Oct 2026H Al Khaleej Saihat2-3
15 Oct 2026A Al-Hazm3-2
09 Oct 2026H Al-Ahli Jeddah0-4
13 Sep 2026A NEOM2-4
09 Sep 2026H Al Diriyah1-2

Al Shabab

DWDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 3L
19 Oct 2026H Al-Faisaly FC2-2
11 Oct 2026H Al Taawon3-0
12 Sep 2026H Al-Fayha0-0
09 Sep 2026A Al Kholood1-2
04 Sep 2026H Al-Hilal Saudi FC0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 81% vs implied 74% · edge +7.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Al Shabab to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Al Shabab Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Al-Fateh Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Al-Fateh to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Recent form data shows Al-Fateh with 3 points and a high goals conceded rate, while Al Shabab have 5 points and a more balanced defensive record. Al-Fateh’s perfect Over 2.5 Goals rate this season contrasts with Al Shabab’s 60%, indicating Al-Fateh’s matches are more prone to high scoring, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Al-Fateh Over 2.5
60%Al Shabab Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters. Combined with recent form and season data, this trend suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities, aligning well with the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel.

Loading deeper match data…