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Ajax crestAjax
v
Atalanta crestAtalanta

UEFA Europa Conference League | Thu 22 Oct, 20:00

Ajax v Atalanta Stats

Data last updated: Thu 12 Nov 2026, 21:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ajax face Atalanta in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thu 22 Oct, 20:00. Ajax vs Atalanta Preview: Italian Visitors Target Victory in Conference League Showdown. Both Ajax and Atalanta have shown strong attacking form but also defensive frailty, with Ajax scoring five goals in recent matches and Atalanta netting eight in their last three.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2

  • At 15/2, Over 2 implies roughly 12%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Ajax responded emphatically to their European disappointment by dismantling Groningen 5-2 away from home.
  • Ajax have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atalanta.
  • Atalanta have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Over 2 angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Over 2 sits against roughly 12% implied by the current price. Ajax have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atalanta. Ajax responded emphatically to their European disappointment by dismantling Groningen 5-2 away from home.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 12% implied
Strong positive
Ajax have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Atalanta have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Ajax responded emphatically to their European disappointment by dismantling.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Ajax Win is the preferred angle because ajax responded emphatically to their European disappointment by dismantling Groningen 5-2 away from home. Ajax have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atalanta. Both sides have strong attacking records but concede regularly, making this scoreline a balanced forecast.

Main risk

Both sides have strong attacking records but concede regularly, making this scoreline a balanced forecast.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

Ajax responded emphatically to their European disappointment by dismantling Groningen 5-2 away from home.

Ajax have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atalanta.

Atalanta have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Ajax Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Ajax3
    Avg goals scored
    Atalanta1.33
    Ajax2
    Avg goals conceded
    Atalanta0.33
    Ajax100%
    BTTS rate
    Atalanta33%
    Ajax100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Atalanta33%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 69% · edge +2.8 pts
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 81%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 41%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 32%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 100% for Ajax and 33% for Atalanta, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

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    Useful next reads

    more UEFA Europa Conference League analysisfull betting preview for Ajax v Atalantacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAjax to WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 47% · edge +13.3 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Ajax Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 51%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Ajax to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Ajax

    LWWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 1L
    15 Oct 2026A HNK Hajduk Split1-2
    27 Aug 2026H FC Sion5-3
    20 Aug 2026A FC Sion4-2
    13 Aug 2026A Shelbourne2-2
    06 Aug 2026H Shelbourne3-1

    Atalanta

    WWD
    Last 52W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 0L
    15 Oct 2026H Pafos3-1
    27 Aug 2026A Hapoel Tel Aviv1-0
    20 Aug 2026H Hapoel Tel Aviv0-0
    Market aligned with main pickAjax to WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 47% · edge +13.3 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 85%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Ajax Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Ajax Over 2.5
    33%Atalanta Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ajax sit at 100% and Atalanta sit at 33% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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