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AFC Hornchurch crestAFC Hornchurch
v
Blackpool crestBlackpool

FA Cup | Sat 07 Nov, 15:00

AFC Hornchurch v Blackpool Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This FA Cup tie between AFC Hornchurch and Blackpool sets up as an intriguing contest where attacking intent could dominate. AFC Hornchurch have shown a strong recent scoring trend, netting four goals in their last outing without conceding, indicating offensive . Blackpool's data is thinner, but their attacking players have notable shot volumes and goal threat metrics, suggesting they can contribute to a high-scoring game. The cup setting often encourages open play, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals and dynamic exchanges between the sides.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • AFC Hornchurch have scored 4 goals and kept a clean sheet in recent form, showing attacking strength and defensive solidity.
  • Blackpool's attacking players like J. Ennis have high shot and goal threat stats, supporting goal potential.
  • Model projects a 58% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, with a positive of 16% at of 2.38.
  • AFC Hornchurch have a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, reinforcing the high-scoring trend.
  • Blackpool's thinner data sample suggests caution but their attacking profiles hint at goal involvement potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 58% probability, reflecting AFC Hornchurch's recent scoring spree and Blackpool's attacking players' high shot volumes and goal threat. The positive of 16% at 2.38 indicates attractive pricing. While Blackpool's data is limited, the combination of AFC Hornchurch's offensive form and Blackpool's attacking potential creates a strong case for a high-scoring encounter. The FA Cup context often leads to open games, further supporting this outcome.

AFC Hornchurch recent scoring4 goals in last match, 100% Over 2.5 rate
Strong positive
Blackpool attacking player statsHigh shots and goals per 90 from J. Yates, N. Ennis
Positive
Model probability vs odds57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Blackpool data qualityLimited data sample, caution advised
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open, attacking FA Cup clash where AFC Hornchurch's recent scoring form meets Blackpool's capable attackers. The combination of Hornchurch's offensive and Blackpool's shot volume suggests multiple goals are likely, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking potential and goal volume

“The attacking profiles of both sides, especially AFC Hornchurch's recent goal-scoring and Blackpool's shot-heavy forwards, set the stage for a high-scoring FA Cup encounter worth watching.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Blackpool's attacking players like J. Ennis have high shot and goal threat stats, supporting goal potential.

Model projects a 58% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, with a positive of 16% at of 2.38.

AFC Hornchurch have a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, reinforcing the high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Recent trends for AFC Hornchurch show a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in their last matches, indicating a pattern of high-scoring games.
  • Although Blackpool's trend data is limited, their attacking players' shot volumes suggest they can contribute to goal-scoring opportunities.
  • The tempo and attacking intent from both sides in recent matches point to a fast-paced game with multiple goals, supporting Over 2.5 Goals trends in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AFC Hornchurch4
Avg goals scored
Blackpool-
AFC Hornchurch0
Avg goals conceded
Blackpool-
AFC Hornchurch0%
BTTS rate
Blackpool-
AFC Hornchurch100%
Over 2.5 goals
Blackpool-
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
AFC Hornchurch have scored 4 goals recently with no goals conceded, showing strong attacking and defensive form. Blackpool's attacking players have high shot and goal threat metrics, indicating potential for goals from both sides. Although Blackpool's BTTS rate is unavailable, the attacking profiles and recent Hornchurch form point to a match with multiple goals and possible BTTS involvement.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

FA Cup hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AFC Hornchurch

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
17 Oct 2026A Uxbridge4-0

Blackpool

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Blackpool yet.

Best odds for this sectionAFC Hornchurch Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 45% vs implied 37% · edge +7.7 pts
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
AFC Hornchurch to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Blackpool to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Blackpool Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
AFC Hornchurch's recent form shows a strong attacking output with 4 goals scored and a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, highlighting their capacity to produce high-scoring matches. Blackpool's recent form data is limited, but their attacking players' shot and goal stats suggest offensive potential. This recent form context supports the likelihood of Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture, especially given AFC Hornchurch's momentum.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
AFC Hornchurch Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
AFC Hornchurch to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Blackpool to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Blackpool Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
The 57% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+15 pts).
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%AFC Hornchurch Over 2.5
-Blackpool Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends for AFC Hornchurch show a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in their last matches, indicating a pattern of high-scoring games. Although Blackpool's trend data is limited, their attacking players' shot volumes suggest they can contribute to goal-scoring opportunities. The tempo and attacking intent from both sides in recent matches point to a fast-paced game with multiple goals, supporting Over 2.5 Goals trends in this fixture.

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