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ADO Den Haag crestADO Den Haag
v
Sparta Rotterdam crestSparta Rotterdam

Eredivisie | Sat 07 Nov, 17:45

ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam meet in an Eredivisie clash where goal-scoring potential is high. Sparta Rotterdam boasts a more potent attack, averaging 2.0 goals per game, while ADO Den Haag contributes 1.4 goals on average. Both teams have shown vulnerability at the back, with Sparta conceding 2.6 goals per match and ADO Den Haag 1.6. Recent form suggests open play and attacking intent, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter with tactical openness and defensive lapses likely to produce multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Sparta Rotterdam averages 2.0 goals per game, ADO Den Haag 1.4 goals.
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates at 80%, indicating frequent scoring from both sides.
  • Sparta Rotterdam has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, ADO Den Haag 60%.
  • Average shots per game are high for both teams, around 14 each, supporting attacking play.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals, suggesting a history of multiple goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 56.9% chance against an implied 42%, reflecting a 14.9% . Both teams demonstrate attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses, with Sparta Rotterdam's perfect recent Over 2.5 record and ADO Den Haag's solid goal output. High shot volumes and BTTS rates reinforce the likelihood of multiple goals. No data limitations or price warnings reduce , supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance56.9% model chance vs 42% implied (+14.9 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance56.9% model chance vs 42% implied (+14.9 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge56.9% model chance vs 42% implied (+14.9 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesSparta 100%, ADO 60%
Positive
BTTS RatesBoth 80%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both sides pushing forward, given Sparta Rotterdam's strong attacking form and ADO Den Haag's willingness to engage offensively. The defensive records suggest vulnerabilities that could lead to multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a fitting choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking and defensive dynamics

“Sparta Rotterdam's attacking prowess combined with ADO Den Haag's defensive frailties sets the stage for a high-scoring match. The data clearly points to an open game where goals are likely to flow from both sides.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Sparta Rotterdam averages 2.0 goals per game, ADO Den Haag 1.4 goals.

Both teams have high BTTS rates at 80%, indicating frequent scoring from both sides.

Sparta Rotterdam has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, ADO Den Haag 60%.

Average shots per game are high for both teams, around 14 each, supporting attacking play.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating a moderately high-scoring history.
  • Recent trends show increasing goal tempo with both teams frequently involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • This trend supports the likelihood of Over 2.5 and potentially Over 3.5 Goals, driven by open play and attacking intent from both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

ADO Den Haag1.4
Avg goals scored
Sparta Rotterdam2
ADO Den Haag1.6
Avg goals conceded
Sparta Rotterdam2.6
ADO Den Haag80%
BTTS rate
Sparta Rotterdam80%
ADO Den Haag60%
Over 2.5 goals
Sparta Rotterdam100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +14.9 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Both teams have high BTTS rates at 80%, indicating frequent mutual scoring. Sparta Rotterdam's perfect recent Over 2.5 Goals rate and ADO Den Haag's 60% rate suggest a strong likelihood of multiple goals. The combination of attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities supports a game with several goals and both sides finding the net.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 64% · edge +11.2 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Sparta Rotterdam to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Sparta Rotterdam Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
ADO Den Haag to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
The 56.9% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+14.9 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for ADO Den Haag and 100% for Sparta Rotterdam, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

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Useful next reads

Eredivisie fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

ADO Den Haag

LLWDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
01 Nov 2026A PEC Zwolle0-1
24 Oct 2026H Heerenveen2-3
17 Oct 2026H PSV Eindhoven2-1
11 Oct 2026A Telstar2-2
19 Sep 2026H Cambuur1-1

Sparta Rotterdam

WLWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
01 Nov 2026A Groningen3-2
25 Oct 2026H Ajax1-2
17 Oct 2026H Willem II3-2
10 Oct 2026A GO Ahead Eagles3-3
19 Sep 2026H Heerenveen0-4
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 77% vs implied 67% · edge +9.8 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Sparta Rotterdam to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Sparta Rotterdam Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
ADO Den Haag to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
ADO Den Haag Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form data shows Sparta Rotterdam with 7 points and a perfect 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, highlighting their offensive consistency. ADO Den Haag has 5 points and a 60% Over 2.5 rate, indicating a slightly less frequent but still notable goal-scoring trend. Both teams' recent matches have featured multiple goals, supporting the likelihood of an open, high-scoring game.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%ADO Den Haag Over 2.5
100%Sparta Rotterdam Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating a moderately high-scoring history. Recent trends show increasing goal tempo with both teams frequently involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals. This trend supports the likelihood of Over 2.5 and potentially Over 3.5 Goals, driven by open play and attacking intent from both sides.

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