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ADO Den Haag crestADO Den Haag
v
Heerenveen crestHeerenveen

Eredivisie | Sat 24 Oct, 20:00

ADO Den Haag v Heerenveen Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

ADO Den Haag hosts Heerenveen in this Eredivisie clash with both teams showing contrasting league positions and form. Heerenveen, sitting comfortably in 8th place, have collected 12 points and display a more potent attack and tighter defense compared to 17th-placed ADO Den Haag, who have struggled for points and goals. Heerenveen's recent performances suggest tactical solidity and attacking threat, while ADO Den Haag face pressure to improve results at home. This match offers a tactical battle where Heerenveen's consistency and defensive discipline could be decisive, but the home side's resilience adds an element of uncertainty.

BT4Y best bet

Heerenveen Draw No Bet

  • Heerenveen ranks 8th with 12 points, ADO Den Haag 17th with 6 points.
  • Heerenveen averages 2.0 goals scored and concedes only 1.0 per game, showing defensive strength.
  • ADO Den Haag has a high BTTS rate (80%) but concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Heerenveen averages 17.2 shots and 6.4 shots on target per game, reflecting attacking pressure.
  • Heerenveen's Draw No Bet market shows strong value with a 15.3% positive edge over implied .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Heerenveen Draw No Bet due to their superior form, higher goal-scoring rate, and more robust defensive record compared to ADO Den Haag. Heerenveen's ability to generate significantly more shots and shots on target per match underlines their attacking edge. The positive of 15.3% at of 1.95 indicates the market underestimates Heerenveen's chances. is high at 78%, supported by consistent recent performances and tactical stability. This pick balances attacking potential and defensive resilience, making it a compelling choice despite ADO Den Haag's home advantage.

Model Chance66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level78%
Strong positive
Recent FormHeerenveen better points and goals
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Heerenveen's tactical discipline and superior attacking metrics make them the favored side in this fixture. Their ability to create more shots and maintain a solid defense contrasts with ADO Den Haag's struggles, justifying in Heerenveen avoiding defeat. The Draw No Bet option provides a safety net against potential home resistance, aligning well with recent form and season-long trends.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and market value

“Heerenveen's balanced attack and defense, combined with their consistent form, position them well to at least avoid defeat here. The Draw No Bet market captures this edge while mitigating risk from ADO Den Haag's home fightback potential.”

Key Data Signals

Heerenveen Draw No Bet evidence

Heerenveen ranks 8th with 12 points, ADO Den Haag 17th with 6 points.

Heerenveen averages 2.0 goals scored and concedes only 1.0 per game, showing defensive strength.

ADO Den Haag has a high BTTS rate (80%) but concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Heerenveen averages 17.2 shots and 6.4 shots on target per game, reflecting attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Heerenveen Draw No Bet notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.8, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting potential for goals but balanced by Heerenveen's defensive discipline, which may temper the scoring tempo in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

ADO Den Haag1.4
Avg goals scored
Heerenveen2
ADO Den Haag1.8
Avg goals conceded
Heerenveen1
ADO Den Haag80%
BTTS rate
Heerenveen20%
ADO Den Haag60%
Over 2.5 goals
Heerenveen60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 89% · edge -10.3 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams show contrasting BTTS trends: ADO Den Haag has an 80% BTTS rate, indicating frequent goals conceded and scored, while Heerenveen's 20% suggests stronger defensive control. The average goals per game in their encounters and recent matches hover around 2.8, supporting a moderate expectation of goals but with defensive discipline from Heerenveen likely limiting high scoring.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHeerenveen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Heerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The 66.3% for Heerenveen Draw No Bet sits against roughly 51.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Heerenveen have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for ADO Den Haag.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

ADO Den Haag

WDDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 5L
17 Oct 2026H PSV Eindhoven2-1
11 Oct 2026A Telstar2-2
19 Sep 2026H Cambuur1-1
12 Sep 2026A Twente0-2
06 Sep 2026H Fortuna Sittard2-3

Heerenveen

WLWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 3L
16 Oct 2026H Excelsior4-0
09 Oct 2026A PSV Eindhoven0-2
19 Sep 2026A Sparta Rotterdam4-0
13 Sep 2026H Telstar0-0
06 Sep 2026H AZ Alkmaar2-3
Market aligned with main pickHeerenveen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 83%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Heerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Recent form data shows Heerenveen accumulating 7 points with a 2.0 goals per game average and conceding only 1.0, reflecting effective offense and defense. ADO Den Haag has 5 points, scoring 1.4 goals but conceding 1.8 per game, indicating defensive frailty. This form disparity supports in Heerenveen's ability to avoid defeat in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%ADO Den Haag Over 2.5
60%Heerenveen Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.8, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Both teams have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting potential for goals but balanced by Heerenveen's defensive discipline, which may temper the scoring tempo in this encounter.

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