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Accrington ST crestAccrington ST
v
Salford City crestSalford City

EFL Trophy | Tue 06 Oct, 19:00

Accrington ST v Salford City Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 09:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This EFL Trophy clash features Accrington ST hosting Salford City in a contest that contrasts physical aerial control with technical away efficiency. Accrington has secured 7 wins from 14 home games, leveraging strong aerial duels and set-piece opportunities. Salford City, sitting 5th and pushing for promotion, boasts a 57% away win rate and a potent attack led by Daniel Udoh. Both teams bring momentum and tactical strengths, making this a compelling battle of styles with promotion stakes adding intensity to the fixture.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Salford City Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 53%, above the 44% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Salford City holds a strong 57% away win rate this season, outperforming Accrington's 50% home win rate.
  • Accrington dominates aerial duels with 37.3 won per game versus Salford's 26.3, indicating physical control in the air.
  • Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, suggesting an open, attacking game.
  • Salford's Daniel Udoh is a key attacking threat, averaging 10 shots and 10 shots on target per 90 minutes.
Price warning

Salford City Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 53% while the model sits nearer 44% (-8.8 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 2.5 Goals shows a +14.3 pts edge at 1.57.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model favors Salford City to win based on their superior away efficiency and clinical finishing, particularly from Daniel Udoh, who leads with high shot volume and accuracy. Despite Accrington's aerial strength and home form, Salford's tactical flexibility and recent momentum provide an edge. Both teams' attacking profiles suggest a competitive match, but Salford's ability to absorb pressure and strike effectively on transitions underpins the model's . Data quality is solid for both sides, supporting a reliable prediction.

Price / value44% model chance vs 53% implied (-8.8 pts)
Negative
Away Win RateSalford City 57% vs Accrington ST 50%
Positive
Key Player ImpactDaniel Udoh 10 shots & 10 SOT/90
Strong positive
Aerial DuelsAccrington ST leads 37.3 vs 26.3
Neutral
Recent FormBoth teams 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Salford City's technical quality and clinical finishing, led by Daniel Udoh, make them a strong candidate for victory despite Accrington's home aerial control. The Ammies' ability to absorb pressure and capitalize on counter-attacks aligns with their impressive away record, suggesting they can overcome the physical challenge posed by Accrington.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Salford City

“Salford City's blend of technical prowess and efficient finishing, especially on the road, gives them a tactical edge in this EFL Trophy tie against a physically dominant Accrington side.”

Key Data Signals

Salford City Win evidence

Salford City holds a strong 57% away win rate this season, outperforming Accrington's 50% home win rate.

Accrington dominates aerial duels with 37.3 won per game versus Salford's 26.3, indicating physical control in the air.

Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, suggesting an open, attacking game.

Salford's Daniel Udoh is a key attacking threat, averaging 10 shots and 10 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Salford City Win notes

  • The last nine head-to-head matches average 2.11 goals, aligning with both teams' recent 100% Over 2.5 Goals rates.
  • This trend suggests a consistent pattern of open, attacking games with multiple scoring opportunities.
  • The tempo and offensive quality from both sides support expectations of a lively match with goals likely from transitions and set-piece situations.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Accrington ST3
Avg goals scored
Salford City1
Accrington ST3
Avg goals conceded
Salford City2
Accrington ST100%
BTTS rate
Salford City100%
Accrington ST100%
Over 2.5 goals
Salford City100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Both teams have recorded a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, indicating open games with attacking intent. Accrington's high shot volume and Salford's efficient finishing suggest multiple goal opportunities. The likelihood of both teams scoring is high given their offensive patterns and defensive vulnerabilities, supporting expectations of a lively, goal-rich encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSalford City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 53% · edge -8.8 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Salford City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
The 43.8% for Salford City Win sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (-8.8 pts). Accrington ST have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Salford City. The Case for Salford City: The Ammies are one of the most efficient travelers in the division, boasting an excellent 57% away win rate.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

full betting preview for Accrington ST v Salford Citycorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Accrington ST

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
22 Sep 2026H Sunderland U213-3

Salford City

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Sep 2026H Sheffield Wednesday1-2
Market aligned with main pickSalford City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 53% · edge -8.8 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Salford City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Recent form data shows both teams involved in high-scoring matches with 100% Over 2.5 Goals rates, reflecting attacking momentum. Accrington's home resilience contrasts with Salford's efficient away victories, including wins at Tranmere and Swindon. This form suggests a competitive fixture where Salford's promotion chase and Accrington's home solidity will be tested in an open, goal-laden context.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Accrington ST Over 2.5
100%Salford City Over 2.5
2.11H2H avg goals
The last nine head-to-head matches average 2.11 goals, aligning with both teams' recent 100% Over 2.5 Goals rates. This trend suggests a consistent pattern of open, attacking games with multiple scoring opportunities. The tempo and offensive quality from both sides support expectations of a lively match with goals likely from transitions and set-piece situations.

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