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AC Milan crestAC Milan
v
Juventus crestJuventus

Serie A | Sun 26 Apr, 19:45

AC Milan v Juventus Stats

Data last updated: Tue 14 Jul 2026, 03:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AC Milan face Juventus in Serie A on Sun 26 Apr, 19:45. Milan have seen both teams score in just one of their last eight league games, highlighting how tight and low-scoring their matches have become. Juventus enter this clash with superior momentum, having secured five wins from their last six matches.

BT4Y best bet

Juventus 1-0 Correct Score The statistical profile of both sides strongly suggests a low-scoring, cagey affair defined by fine margins

  • At 6/5, Juventus Win implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 70%.
  • Their defensive organisation is elite, conceding just one goal in that period.
  • Juventus have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 6 for AC Milan.
  • Juventus have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Juventus Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • AC Milan sit 5 in the table, while Juventus sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 70% for Juventus Win sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. Juventus have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 6 for AC Milan. Their defensive organisation is elite, conceding just one goal in that period.

Model chance vs price70% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Strong positive
Juventus have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points.Visible data support
Positive
Juventus have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Their defensive organisation is elite, conceding just one goal.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Juventus Win is the preferred angle because their defensive organisation is elite, conceding just one goal in that period. Juventus have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 6 for AC Milan. Juventus are not just winning; they are managing games with authority, limiting risk and forcing opponents into frustration.

Main risk

Juventus are not just winning; they are managing games with authority, limiting risk and forcing opponents into frustration.

Key Data Signals

Juventus Win evidence

Their defensive organisation is elite, conceding just one goal in that period.

Juventus have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 6 for AC Milan.

Juventus have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Juventus Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

AC Milan sit 5 in the table, while Juventus sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Juventus Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    AC Milan4.2
    Avg corners for
    Juventus5.6
    AC Milan8.2
    Avg total corners
    Juventus10.6
    AC Milan1
    Avg yellow cards
    Juventus2
    AC Milan13
    Avg shots
    Juventus15.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
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    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    Serie A hubAC Milan v Juventus predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    AC Milan0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Juventus1.4
    AC Milan1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Juventus0.2
    AC Milan20%
    BTTS rate
    Juventus20%
    AC Milan40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Juventus0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 29% · edge +18.1 pts
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickJuventus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 36% · edge +33.6 pts
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
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    Juventus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Juventus to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    AC Milan

    WLLWL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 4L
    19 Apr 2026A Hellas Verona1-0
    11 Apr 2026H Udinese0-3
    06 Apr 2026A Napoli0-1
    21 Mar 2026H Torino3-2
    15 Mar 2026A Lazio0-1

    Juventus

    WWWDW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    19 Apr 2026H Bologna2-0
    11 Apr 2026A Atalanta1-0
    06 Apr 2026H Genoa2-0
    21 Mar 2026H Sassuolo1-1
    14 Mar 2026A Udinese1-0
    Market aligned with main pickJuventus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 36% · edge +33.6 pts
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
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    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
    1.46
    Check odds @ 1.46
    Juventus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3AC Milan wins
    5Draws
    2Juventus wins
    05 Oct 2025Juventus v AC Milan0-0
    18 Jan 2025Juventus v AC Milan2-0
    03 Jan 2025Juventus v AC Milan1-2
    23 Nov 2024AC Milan v Juventus0-0
    27 Apr 2024Juventus v AC Milan0-0
    22 Oct 2023AC Milan v Juventus0-1
    Market aligned with main pickJuventus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 36% · edge +33.6 pts
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Juventus to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    AC Milan38
    Played
    Juventus38
    AC Milan1.4
    Avg goals for
    Juventus1.6
    AC Milan0.9
    Avg goals against
    Juventus0.9
    AC Milan15
    Clean sheets
    Juventus16
    Market aligned with main pickJuventus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 36% · edge +33.6 pts
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Juventus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Season data supports Juventus to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5AC Milan70382010818
    6Juventus69381912727
    AC Milan sit in position 5, while Juventus sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Juventus Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%AC Milan Over 2.5
    0%Juventus Over 2.5
    1.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: AC Milan sit at 40% and Juventus sit at 0% with the H2H average at 1.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    AC Milan v Juventus prediction

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    Serie A hubSerie A hubAC Milan v Juventus predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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