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Aarhus crestAarhus
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Viborg crestViborg

Superliga | Sun 25 Oct, 17:00

Aarhus v Viborg Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Viborg enters this Superliga clash against Aarhus with strong momentum, sitting third in the league with 20 points compared to Aarhus's 10th place and 9 points. Viborg's recent form shows resilience and attacking threat, averaging 1.6 goals per game and maintaining a solid defensive record. Aarhus, while competitive, has struggled to convert chances consistently and concedes slightly more goals. The tactical setup suggests Viborg's more potent offense and higher league standing could give them the edge in this encounter, though Aarhus's home ambition may add unpredictability to the contest.

BT4Y best bet

Viborg to Win

  • Viborg ranks 3rd with 20 points, Aarhus 10th with 9 points.
  • Both teams average 1.6 goals scored per game, but Viborg concedes fewer goals (1.2 vs 1.4).
  • Viborg averages 17.4 shots per game, significantly higher than Aarhus's 11.6.
  • Head-to-head average goals in last 10 matches is 3.5, indicating open games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Viborg to win with a 46.2% chance, reflecting their superior league position and offensive output. Viborg's higher shot volume and better defensive record support this edge. The of 2.75 offer positive value given the implied chance of 36.4%, indicating a nearly 10% . is moderate at 57%, suggesting a balanced but optimistic outlook. No data limitations affect this prediction, making Viborg a solid choice based on form and statistics.

Model Chance46.2% model chance vs 38.5% implied (+7.7 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance46.2% model chance vs 38.5% implied (+7.7 pts)
Positive
Value Edge46.2% model chance vs 38.5% implied (+7.7 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence57%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Viborg's superior league standing and consistent attacking threat make them the likely winners in this Superliga fixture. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Aarhus's struggles, providing a tactical and statistical foundation for Viborg's victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Viborg's balanced attack and solid defense position them well to capitalize on Aarhus's vulnerabilities, making them a compelling pick for this match.”

Key Data Signals

Viborg to Win evidence

Viborg ranks 3rd with 20 points, Aarhus 10th with 9 points.

Both teams average 1.6 goals scored per game, but Viborg concedes fewer goals (1.2 vs 1.4).

Viborg averages 17.4 shots per game, significantly higher than Aarhus's 11.6.

Head-to-head average goals in last 10 matches is 3.5, indicating open games.

What To Watch In The Data

Viborg to Win notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals, indicating a trend toward open, high-scoring games.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (60% for Aarhus, 40% for Viborg) suggest potential for goals but also variability, making goal markets worth monitoring closely.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aarhus1.6
Avg goals scored
Viborg1.6
Aarhus1.4
Avg goals conceded
Viborg1.2
Aarhus60%
BTTS rate
Viborg60%
Aarhus60%
Over 2.5 goals
Viborg40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 65% · edge +7.9 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 80%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams average 1.6 goals per game, with a 60% BTTS rate for Aarhus and 60% for Viborg, indicating a balanced likelihood of both teams scoring. The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals, suggesting an open game with potential for multiple goals and BTTS outcomes.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickViborg to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 39% · edge +7.7 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Viborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The 46.2% for Viborg to Win sits against roughly 38.5% implied by the current price (+7.7 pts). Viborg have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Aarhus.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aarhus

DWDLD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 4L
18 Oct 2026A FC Copenhagen1-1
12 Oct 2026H Sonderjyske3-0
20 Sep 2026A AC Horsens2-2
13 Sep 2026A FC Nordsjaelland0-2
05 Sep 2026H Silkeborg2-2

Viborg

LWWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
19 Oct 2026H FC Midtjylland1-2
11 Oct 2026A Randers FC2-0
20 Sep 2026H FC Nordsjaelland4-1
13 Sep 2026A Silkeborg1-1
04 Sep 2026H Lyngby0-2
Market aligned with main pickViborg to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 39% · edge +7.7 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Viborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Viborg's recent form shows 7 points gained with a balanced attack and defense, while Aarhus has 6 points but concedes slightly more. Viborg's ability to maintain clean sheets and create chances underpins their favored status, reflecting momentum and consistency in performance.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Aarhus Over 2.5
40%Viborg Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals, indicating a trend toward open, high-scoring games. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (60% for Aarhus, 40% for Viborg) suggest potential for goals but also variability, making goal markets worth monitoring closely.

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