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A. Italiano crestA. Italiano
v
Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Wed 06 May, 23:00

A. Italiano v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 08:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Italiano face Vasco DA Gama in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Wed 06 May, 23:00. Italiano come in with 5 recent points and 1 goals per match, while Vasco DA Gama have 4 points and 1.33 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • At 2, Over 9.5 Corners implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • Italiano lead the corner sample at 5.75 per match, with Vasco DA Gama lower at 4.67.
  • Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: A. Italiano average 13.75 and Vasco DA Gama average 13.67.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Italiano lead the corner sample at 5.75 per match, with Vasco DA Gama lower at 4.67.

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Strong positive
Italiano lead the corner sample at 5.75 per match.Visible data support
Positive
Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 9.5 Corners is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Italiano lead the corner sample at 5.75 per match, with Vasco DA Gama lower at 4.67. Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Italiano lead the corner sample at 5.75 per match, with Vasco DA Gama lower at 4.67.

Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: A. Italiano average 13.75 and Vasco DA Gama average 13.67.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Use corner averages alongside shot pressure to separate territory from real threat.
  • Check whether wide attacks are producing repeat deliveries rather than harmless possession.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

A. Italiano5.75
Avg corners for
Vasco DA Gama4.67
A. Italiano10.5
Avg total corners
Vasco DA Gama10
A. Italiano2.25
Avg yellow cards
Vasco DA Gama3
A. Italiano13.75
Avg shots
Vasco DA Gama13.67
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 50% · edge +19 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

A. Italiano1
Avg goals scored
Vasco DA Gama1.33
A. Italiano1.25
Avg goals conceded
Vasco DA Gama0.67
A. Italiano75%
BTTS rate
Vasco DA Gama33%
A. Italiano25%
Over 2.5 goals
Vasco DA Gama67%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 55% · edge +9.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 55% · edge +9.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
A. Italiano to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
A. Italiano Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

A. Italiano

DWLD
Last 51W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 1L
29 Apr 2026A Barracas Central1-1
15 Apr 2026A Vasco DA Gama2-1
09 Apr 2026H Olimpia0-2
04 Mar 2026A Cobresal1-1

Vasco DA Gama

WLD
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
30 Apr 2026H Olimpia3-0
15 Apr 2026H A. Italiano1-2
07 Apr 2026A Barracas Central0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 75% · edge -3.4 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
A. Italiano to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
A. Italiano Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1A. Italiano wins
0Draws
0Vasco DA Gama wins
15 Apr 2026Vasco DA Gama v A. Italiano1-2
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 55% · edge +9.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
A. Italiano to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

A. Italiano7
Played
Vasco DA Gama6
A. Italiano1.3
Avg goals for
Vasco DA Gama1.7
A. Italiano1.4
Avg goals against
Vasco DA Gama1
A. Italiano1
Clean sheets
Vasco DA Gama3
Best odds for this sectionVasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 50% · edge +3.1 pts
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Load more odds for this section
Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
A. Italiano to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
A. Italiano Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Season data supports Vasco DA Gama Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Vasco DA Gama1063124
3A. Italiano76213-2
CONMEBOL Sudamericana standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%A. Italiano Over 2.5
67%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: A. Italiano sit at 25% and Vasco DA Gama sit at 67% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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