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1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim
v
Lyon crestLyon

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 20:00

1899 Hoffenheim v Lyon Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa League clash between 1899 Hoffenheim and Lyon promises an open and attacking encounter. Lyon arrives with strong recent form, having scored an average of 2.5 goals per game and maintaining a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Hoffenheim, despite a slower start, have shown willingness to engage offensively, averaging 17 shots per match. Both teams' attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for a high-scoring game under the floodlights on October 22nd.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Lyon has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, indicating consistent high scoring.
  • Hoffenheim averages 17 shots per game, showing offensive pressure potential.
  • The last three head-to-head matches averaged 4.67 goals, highlighting goal-rich encounters.
  • Lyon's key attackers, including P. Openda, contribute significant shots on target.
  • Both teams have shown defensive frailties, with Hoffenheim conceding 2.5 goals per game recently.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 57.9% chance against an implied market chance of 45.5%, offering a 12.4% . Lyon's prolific attack and Hoffenheim's defensive lapses combine with a high average of shots and recent high-scoring head-to-heads to support this pick. The attacking roles of players like P. Openda, alongside Hoffenheim's offensive volume, suggest a match ripe for multiple goals. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Probability57.9% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.4 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance57.9% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.4 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge57.9% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Team FormLyon 100% Over 2.5 rate, Hoffenheim 50% Over 2.5 rate
Positive
Head-to-Head Goals4.67 average goals in last 3 meetings
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Lyon's attacking prowess likely to challenge Hoffenheim's defense repeatedly. Lyon's recent goal-scoring form combined with Hoffenheim's offensive attempts suggests a lively encounter with multiple goals. The data supports a high-scoring match, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection for bettors seeking excitement and value.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics and goal potential

“Lyon's dynamic attackers and Hoffenheim's offensive pressure set the stage for a goal-heavy Europa League fixture. The teams' recent scoring trends and head-to-head history strongly indicate a match with plenty of goalmouth action.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Lyon has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, indicating consistent high scoring.

Hoffenheim averages 17 shots per game, showing offensive pressure potential.

The last three head-to-head matches averaged 4.67 goals, highlighting goal-rich encounters.

Lyon's key attackers, including P. Openda, contribute significant shots on target.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last three head-to-head matches averaged 4.67 goals, a strong indicator of open, attacking games between these sides.
  • Recent Over 2.5 Goals trends show Lyon's matches consistently exceed this threshold, suggesting a fast tempo and defensive gaps that favor multiple goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

1899 Hoffenheim1
Avg goals scored
Lyon2.5
1899 Hoffenheim2.5
Avg goals conceded
Lyon1.5
1899 Hoffenheim50%
BTTS rate
Lyon100%
1899 Hoffenheim50%
Over 2.5 goals
Lyon100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.4 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have shown offensive strengths and defensive vulnerabilities, with Lyon scoring 2.5 goals per game and Hoffenheim conceding 2.5 recently. The 100% Over 2.5 rate for Lyon and 50% for Hoffenheim, combined with a 4.67 average goals in their last three meetings, supports expectations of multiple goals and BTTS possibilities.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.2 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Lyon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Lyon Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
4
Check odds @ 4
The 57.9% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+12.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 50% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 100% for Lyon, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

1899 Hoffenheim

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
15 Oct 2026H Beşiktaş2-3
17 Sep 2026A OFI0-2

Lyon

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
15 Oct 2026H Crystal Palace3-2
16 Sep 2026A Anderlecht2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 56% · edge +4.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Lyon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Lyon Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
4
Check odds @ 4
1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Lyon's recent form is potent offensively, scoring 2.5 goals per match and maintaining a perfect Over 2.5 Goals record. Hoffenheim's form is less prolific but still shows a 50% Over 2.5 rate. This contrast suggests Lyon will push the tempo, increasing the likelihood of a high-scoring game consistent with the Over 3.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%1899 Hoffenheim Over 2.5
100%Lyon Over 2.5
4.67H2H avg goals
The last three head-to-head matches averaged 4.67 goals, a strong indicator of open, attacking games between these sides. Recent Over 2.5 Goals trends show Lyon's matches consistently exceed this threshold, suggesting a fast tempo and defensive gaps that favor multiple goals in this fixture.

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