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Can Bologna’s possession game pin Sassuolo back, or will the Neroverdi’s through-balls decide the derby? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Bologna sit four points ahead of Sassuolo with a game in hand and possess a significantly better goal difference (+10 vs +1). Their style of play is built on dominating possession and high attacking volume, which should allow them to pin back a Sassuolo side that averages less than 46% of the ball. With a four-match unbeaten streak in this head-to-head and the advantage of playing at the Dall’Ara, the hosts are statistically and tactically the more likely winners.
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Bologna average 1.4 goals per game and have a long-standing record of scoring in home games against Sassuolo. Their high shot volume (15 per match) suggests multiple goals are likely. Conversely, Sassuolo’s strength in creating chances via through balls and their "likely" threat from direct free kicks means they are well-equipped to breach a Bologna defense that occasionally struggles with an aggressive offside trap. A 2-1 scoreline reflects both Bologna's superiority and Sassuolo's ability to remain competitive.
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Bologna vs Sassuolo Predictions and Best Bets
Bologna vs Sassuolo — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Bologna’s home record and historical dominance in this fixture give them the advantage in the 1X2 market.
Pricing suggests a 2-1 or 1-0 Bologna victory are the most expected outcomes for this regional derby.
A narrow majority of expectations point towards both teams finding the net in what should be an open contest.
- Control versus counter: Bologna average 56.6% possession and 13.7 shots per Serie A game, while Sassuolo sit at 45.5% possession and 10.8 shots, shaping the likely rhythm.
- Table context with bite: Bologna are sixth on 25 points from 15 games with a +10 goal difference, while Sassuolo are 10th on 21 points from 16 with +1.
- Home/away resilience angle: Bologna have avoided defeat in 22 of their most recent 26 Serie A home games, while Sassuolo are unbeaten in five of their last six away league matches.
Control Indicators: Average Possession
Bologna’s tactical identity revolves around sustained spells on the ball, contrasting with Sassuolo’s deeper-lying approach.
High volume passing (82.9% accuracy) allows the hosts to pin opponents back into their own half.
The visitors are comfortable ceding territory, preferring to strike quickly through vertical play and runners.
Attacking Volume: Shots per League Game
Bologna’s pressure translates into a significantly higher volume of goal attempts compared to the Neroverdi.
With 66% of attempts coming from inside the box, the quality of chances mirrors the high quantity.
Sassuolo rely on clinical finishing from through balls rather than sustained siege tactics.
Bologna’s final Serie A assignment before the calendar flips to 2026 comes with a bit of local spice. Sassuolo arrive at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara for a Sunday regional derby, with the hosts keen to put a stopper in a wobble: Bologna come into this one winless in three league games.
There’s still clear daylight between the sides in the standings. Bologna begin gameweek 17 four points clear of the Neroverdi, sitting sixth on 25 points from 15 games, while Sassuolo are 10th on 21 points from 16. Yet derbies have a habit of ignoring neat little gaps like that, and recent history in this fixture suggests Bologna will like the feel of it: they’re on a four-match unbeaten run against Sassuolo.
For all the table context, this looks like a clash of identities as much as points. Bologna have leaned into possession football with width and an aggressive edge, while Sassuolo’s profile points to a team happier operating deeper and punching through with through balls and sharp finishing. With both sides also flagged as weak in aerial duels, and both carrying a few warning signs around offside and fouls in dangerous areas, there’s every chance it becomes a game of moments rather than a slow, controlled grind.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Vincenzo Italiano is expected to set Bologna up in a 4-2-3-1, with Federico Ravaglia in goal behind a back four of Nadir Zortea, Martin Vitík, Jhon Lucumí and Charalampos Lykogiannis. The double pivot looks set to be Nikola Moro alongside Tommaso Pobega, with Riccardo Orsolini and Jonathan Rowe either side of Giovanni Fabbian, feeding Thijs Dallinga up top.
There are some notable absences around the squad picture. Torbjørn Heggem is listed as suspended until 29 December 2025, while Nicolò Casale is out with a hamstring muscle injury until 12 January 2026. Federico Bernardeschi is listed with a broken collarbone until 2 February 2026, and Ciro Immobile is noted with an unknown injury.
Sassuolo’s likely shape is a 4-3-3. Arijanet Muric starts in goal; the defence is tipped as Sebastian Walukiewicz, Jay Idzes, Tarik Muharemovic and Josh Doig. The midfield trio is Kristian Thorstvedt, Nemanja Matic and Ismaël Koné, with Cristian Volpato and Armand Laurienté supporting Walid Cheddira in attack.
On paper, the selection points to a very specific contrast in the middle of the pitch. Bologna’s two-man base behind a No.10 can give them cleaner access into the half-spaces and allow wide players like Orsolini and Rowe to play high and wide early. Sassuolo’s three in midfield can crowd those central lanes and try to force Bologna’s build-up towards the touchlines, where pressing traps and counter launches are easier to trigger.
How the Match Could Be Played
The big tactical question is where Bologna choose to speed the game up. Their style profile leans into possession football, width, and attacking down the left, but the likely XI has threats on both sides: Orsolini’s output and shot volume can make Bologna right-heavy when they want to be, while Rowe and Lykogiannis naturally pull the eye to the left.
If Bologna establish territory, the structure suggests a familiar pattern: the double pivot stabilises rest-defence, Fabbian occupies pockets between midfield and defence, and the wingers can either hold width to stretch the back four or dart inside to create shooting angles. Bologna are also marked as strong at creating long shot opportunities, and that matters here because Sassuolo’s listed weaknesses include defending against through ball attacks and defending counter attacks. That combination can pull a team into a dilemma: step out to close shooting lanes and you risk getting slipped through; sit off and you invite shots and second balls.
Out of possession, Bologna’s “aggressive” tag and use of the offside trap hints at a higher line and more proactive pressure, especially when the ball goes wide. That becomes particularly interesting against Sassuolo because they’re described as playing in their own half, with a consistent first eleven and a strength in creating chances using through balls. In other words, Sassuolo can look comfortable conceding some build-up territory, then trying to spring runners early—exactly the kind of scenario that tests an offside line’s timing and the centre-backs’ ability to defend big spaces.
For Sassuolo, the clearest attacking route looks like getting Laurienté and Volpato into positions where they can either carry the ball at isolated full-backs or release early passes into the channel. With Thorstvedt and Koné in the midfield three, there’s scope to arrive late into the box, while Matic’s role reads as the stabiliser who helps them survive spells without the ball and then helps pick the first forward pass when the regain comes.
Set pieces might be the sneaky subplot. Bologna are rated strong both attacking and defending set pieces, while Sassuolo are rated strong at shooting from direct free kicks. At the same time, both sides are tagged as weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas—so the referee’s whistle, and where those fouls happen, could be an uncomfortably loud presence.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Bologna’s league profile suggests a team that likes to play on the front foot. They’ve scored 23 Serie A goals in 15 matches while conceding 13, and their average possession sits at 56.6% with an 82.9% pass completion rate. That helps explain why their attacks pile up: across their recent match set they’re listed with 2,167 total attacks (98.5 per game) and 1,010 dangerous attacks (45.91 per game). It’s not just sterile ball for ball’s sake; it’s sustained pressure in the opponent’s half.
Their shot volume matches that idea too. Bologna are listed at 13.7 shots per game in Serie A and, in the wider team breakdown, 330 total shots at 15 per match. More importantly for what the match might feel like, 66% of those attempts come from inside the box—so the possession isn’t purely for long-range potshots, even if Bologna are also noted as strong at creating long-shot opportunities.
Sassuolo’s numbers sketch a different rhythm. Their Serie A possession is 45.5% with an 82.1% pass completion rate, and they take 10.8 shots per game. They’ve scored 21 goals and conceded 20 in 16 league matches, which fits the idea of a team that can hurt you but also lives closer to the edge without the ball. Their “weak at keeping possession” tag is reflected in the overall passing and possession totals, and it’s a key reason why Bologna will fancy a long spell of control—if they can avoid being caught by the first incisive pass after a turnover.
The table gap is modest but meaningful: Bologna’s +10 goal difference stands out next to Sassuolo’s +1, and Bologna being four points clear reinforces why the hosts will see this as a chance to finish 2025 with a statement rather than a sigh.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One moment to keep an eye on is what happens when Bologna’s wide play meets Sassuolo’s deeper starting positions. If Orsolini holds the width and pulls a full-back out, it can open a seam for Fabbian to receive between the lines and slip Dallinga in early. If Sassuolo instead keep their back line compact and allow the cross, then Bologna’s set-piece strength and ability to create repeated attacking phases could turn the game into a series of waves.
Another swing factor is the offside theme that sits uncomfortably on both sides of this matchup. Bologna are listed as “very weak” at avoiding offside and also as a team that plays the offside trap themselves; Sassuolo are also noted as weak at avoiding offside. That’s a recipe for stop-start momentum and for one perfectly-timed run suddenly looking like a golden chance.
Then there’s Muric, whose individual rating (7.06) is the highest listed among Sassuolo’s squad. If Bologna’s shot volume translates into shots on target, the goalkeeper’s ability to keep the early scoreline tidy could decide whether Sassuolo can stick to their preferred game plan or are forced into a different kind of match.
What could go wrong with this read? A derby can be messy, and both sides are tagged as weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. One poorly-judged challenge, one direct free kick, one scruffy second ball after a set piece, and the tactical script can be torn up quickly—especially in a match where transitions and timing look so central.
Best Bet for Bologna vs Sassuolo
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Bologna to win
Rationale
Bologna enter this regional derby as the statistically superior side, holding a four-point advantage over Sassuolo in the Serie A standings despite having played one fewer game. The hosts have established themselves in the European spots, sitting sixth with 25 points from 15 matches, underpinned by a goal difference of +10 that far outstrips Sassuolo’s +1. While Bologna have experienced a slight dip in league form recently, their overall profile at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara remains formidable. They have proven their ability to control matches through sustained pressure, averaging 56.6% possession and a high pass completion rate of 82.9%. This dominance is reflected in their attacking volume, as they produce nearly 100 total attacks and 46 dangerous attacks per game.
A significant factor in this matchup is the historical edge held by the Rossoblù, who are currently on a four-match unbeaten streak against their local rivals. The tactical setup under Vincenzo Italiano, likely a 4-2-3-1, is designed to exploit the specific defensive vulnerabilities Sassuolo have shown this season. The visitors are flagged as weak at defending against through balls and counter-attacks, which plays directly into the hands of Bologna’s creative hub. With players like Riccardo Orsolini, who has already netted six league goals this term, and the arrival of Jonathan Rowe, Bologna possess the individual quality to penetrate a Sassuolo backline that has conceded 20 goals in 16 matches.
Furthermore, Sassuolo’s style of play often involves conceding territory, as evidenced by their 45.5% average possession. This approach invites the kind of sustained pressure that Bologna excels at providing. While the Neroverdi have shown they can be a threat on the break, Bologna’s strength in set-piece situations—both attacking and defending—provides an additional layer of security and a secondary route to goal. Given the disparity in seasonal performance and Bologna’s historical dominance in this fixture, the home side is well-positioned to secure all three points.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk lies in the unpredictable nature of a regional derby and Bologna’s recent habit of falling foul of the offside trap. They are statistically rated as very weak at avoiding offside, which could stifle their attacking momentum and allow Sassuolo to hang in the game. Additionally, both sides are prone to committing fouls in dangerous areas; if Sassuolo’s specialists can capitalize on a direct free-kick, the tactical balance could shift rapidly in favor of the visitors.
Correct score lean: Bologna 2-1 Sassuolo
Rationale
A 2-1 victory for the home side aligns with the offensive output and defensive tendencies of both teams. Bologna are one of the league’s top scorers, averaging 1.4 goals per match, and have scored in eight consecutive home league meetings against Sassuolo. Their ability to generate high shot volume—averaging 15 per game—suggests they will find the net at least twice against a defense that has struggled to keep clean sheets on the road. However, Sassuolo’s proficiency with through balls and direct free kicks, combined with Bologna’s aggressive high line, makes it highly probable that the visitors will find a consolation goal.
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