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Can Dunfermline turn East End Park into a cup trap for Hibs’ slick counter-punchers? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Hibernian’s high shot volume (12.37 per game) and superior league level make them heavy favorites to outscore the hosts. Dunfermline’s potential rustiness after a three-week layoff, combined with Hibs' lethal counter-attacking threats like Youan and McGrath, suggests a game with at least three goals where the Premiership side prevails.
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Hibs possess the firepower to score multiple times, while Dunfermline’s Andy Tod is in sufficient form to exploit Hibs' weakness in maintaining leads. A 3-1 result covers the expected talent gap while acknowledging the home side's scoring ability.
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Dunfermline Athletic vs Hibernian Predictions and Best Bets
Dunfermline vs Hibernian — Market Snapshot
Key metrics and sample pricing for this Scottish Cup fixture.
Premiership visitors carry a higher win probability based on the levels between divisions.
Expected high shot volume from the visitors drives the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
- Cup Momentum vs League Level: Dunfermline reached this round by beating Queen of the South 2-1, while Hibernian enter at the fourth round and bring top-flight edge.
- Leaders on Both Sides: Dunfermline have 42 goals in 26 matches across competitions, while Hibs have 49 goals in 30 and average 13.4 shots per game in the Premiership.
- Shot Volume Gap: Dunfermline average 9.15 shots per match overall, but Hibernian fire 12.37 — a big swing in territory, pressure, and second-ball danger. in all competitions.
Offensive Intensity: Shots per Match
Hibernian maintain a higher offensive volume, averaging over three more shots per game than their Championship hosts.
The Pars look to be clinical with fewer opportunities against top-flight opposition.
Hibs’ volume of fire suggests they will dominate territory and pressure at East End Park.
Goal Output: Season Totals
Averaging 1.6 goals per game demonstrates a consistent ability to find the net.
Hibs’ scoring record translates to 1.63 goals per game against Premiership defenses.
East End Park gets the Scottish Cup treatment on Saturday, with kick-off at 12:30 pm and a classic clash of levels. Dunfermline are fifth in the Championship and they’ve had time to breathe — three weeks without a match — but the last time we saw them, they edged Raith Rovers 2-1 just after Christmas.
Neil Lennon has lifted the mood across this campaign. The Pars are on 26 points from 20 league fixtures, just three points off the play-off spots, and they’ll fancy making this uncomfortable. But the warning signs are there too: before that Raith win, Dunfermline went four games without a win, losing three.
Hibernian arrive with momentum and sharpness. David Gray’s side have won three of their last six and are carrying real punch in the final third.
Team News & Lineups
Dunfermline Athletic
- Injuries/Absences
- None listed.
Possible Starting XI
- Mehmet; Mullen, Abdulai, Ngwenya, Todd, Hamilton, Gilmour, Fraser; Macleod, Rudden, Tod
Lineup Implication
- There’s youthful firepower in this group, with Andy Tod already on nine goals in the Championship. If Dunfermline can get him early touches, the crowd will believe.
Hibernian
- Injuries/Absences
- None listed.
Possible Starting XI
- Smith; O’Hora, Kiranga, Iredale; Cadden, Levitt, Newell, Obita; Hoilett; Youan, Klidje
Lineup Implication
- Hibs look built for quick strikes: Élie Youan, Thibault Klidje, and Junior Hoilett offer movement and speed, backed by a side that are very strong on counter attacks.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Dunfermline Athletic | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| League Tier / Position | Championship / 5th | Premiership / 5th |
| Matches (all comps list) | 26 | 30 |
| Goals Scored | 42 | 49 |
| Goals Conceded | 32 | 34 |
| Shots per Match | 9.15 | 12.37 |
| Clean Sheets | 10 | 9 |
| Corners (total) | 129 | 138 |
| Yellow Cards (total) | 55 | 54 |
This doesn’t scream mismatch — it screams pressure points. Hibs create more, shoot more, and play at a higher weekly tempo. Dunfermline have enough goal threat to hurt anyone, and they’ve actually kept 10 clean sheets across their matches listed. The question is whether they can survive the sustained periods that Hibs tend to force with their shot volume and counters.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Dunfermline’s Route: Make It a Scrap, Then Find Tod
Dunfermline’s best path is simple: keep the shape tight, make the pitch feel small, and turn the first hour into a grind. They’ve conceded 32 in 26, so they’re not a side that collapse every week, and the break before this match could help them hit the intensity early.
The big attacking clue is Andy Tod. Nine goals is a serious return, and he gives Dunfermline a focal point for quick, direct sequences. If the Pars can win second balls in midfield and play forward early, they can force Hibs into the kind of uncomfortable defending that cup ties live on.
But there’s a risk in sitting too deep. Dunfermline allow fewer shots than Hibs take, and if they spend long spells pinned back, that pressure turns into corners, free-kicks, and chaos.
Hibs’ Edge: Shots, Counters, and a Ruthless Front Line
Hibs come with a clear identity: they take a lot of shots, attack through the middle, and punish you in transition. That “very strong” counter-attack label isn’t decoration — it fits the personnel. Kieron Bowie has eight league goals, Jamie McGrath has seven with three assists, and even in limited minutes Élie Youan has four goals.
That spread matters in a cup tie. Dunfermline can’t just shut down one threat and hope the rest fades away.
The weakness to poke at is also clear: Hibs are weak at protecting the lead. If Dunfermline can stay in the game late, one swing moment — a set piece, a mistake, a bounce — can turn pressure into panic.
The Midfield Fight: Who Wins the Second Ball Wins the Story
Hibs’ volume football only works if they keep recycling attacks. Dunfermline’s mission is to break that rhythm: tackle, clear, breathe, repeat. If the Pars can stop Hibs building wave after wave, the tie becomes a one-off battle instead of a pattern.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early tempo: Dunfermline have had a long rest; Hibs arrive match-sharp. The first 15 minutes will show who sets the tone.
- Transitions after corners and clearances: Hibs are lethal on the break, and Dunfermline can’t get caught chasing second balls.
- McGrath’s influence: Jamie McGrath (7 goals, 3 assists, 7.30 rating) is the link that turns possession into real chances.
What could go wrong?
If Dunfermline start slow after the layoff, Hibs’ shot volume can smother them before the tie even settles. If Hibs go ahead and switch off — and they’ve got that “protecting the lead” weakness hanging over them — this can get frantic, especially if East End Park senses a wobble.
Best Bet for Dunfermline vs Hibernian
Can the Championship hosts bridge the gap or will top-flight firepower tell the tale?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Shot Volume | Hibs 12.37/game; DAFC 9.15 | Hibs -1 Handicap |
| Goal Power | Hibs 49 in 30; DAFC 42 in 26 | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Defensive Gap | Hibs 9 Clean Sheets; DAFC 10 | Both Teams to Score |
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Hibernian to Win and Over 2.5 Goals
Hibernian enter this Scottish Cup clash as the clear favorites due to the significant gap in shot volume and top-flight intensity. David Gray’s side fires an average of 12.37 shots per match, a figure that dwarfs Dunfermline’s 9.15. This territorial dominance translates into sustained pressure that Championship defenses often find impossible to withstand over 90 minutes.
While Dunfermline are resilient at home and have kept 10 clean sheets this season, they face a Hibs frontline that is clinical in transition. With 49 goals scored across 30 matches, the visitors possess multiple avenues to goal. The presence of Jamie McGrath, who has 10 goal contributions, and the pace of Elie Youan means Dunfermline cannot simply focus on a single threat.
The hosts have shown they can score, averaging 1.6 goals per game, and in Andy Tod they have a striker with nine goals who can exploit Hibs’ known weakness in protecting leads. However, the fitness and sharpness advantage lies with the visitors. Dunfermline have not played a competitive fixture in three weeks, whereas Hibs have won three of their last six matches in a higher-tempo league.
Ultimately, the combination of Hibernian’s counter-attacking strength and Dunfermline’s potential rustiness points to a high-scoring away win. Expect the Premiership side to utilize their superior bench depth and shot-creating actions to overwhelm the Pars in the second half.
What could go wrong? Dunfermline’s three-week break may have allowed them to perfectly orchestrate a defensive masterplan to stifle the game. If Hibs dominate possession but fail to convert their high shot volume into early goals, they are prone to panicking late in the game, a trait evidenced by their struggles to protect leads this season.
Correct Score Lean
Hibernian 3-1
This scoreline reflects the gulf in quality and match sharpness. Hibernian’s shot volume and counter-attacking prowess are likely to breach a Dunfermline defense that has conceded 32 goals this term. While the Pars have enough goal threat—led by Andy Tod—to find the net against a Hibs side that often struggles to see out games cleanly, the visitors’ ability to fire 12+ shots per game will eventually tell. A late third goal for Hibs as Dunfermline chases the game is a high-probability outcome.
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