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Can Aberdeen flip the switch at Pittodrie, or will Raith Rovers turn a wobble into a cup shock? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Aberdeen are desperate for a win to end a seven-game slump, while Raith Rovers' recent away form is dominated by 0-0 draws. The Dons have the quality to win but lack the scoring consistency to suggest a high-scoring game.
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Raith’s defensive record and away draw habit suggest they will keep it close. Aberdeen’s average goal time is late (66th minute), making a 1-0 grind the most logical outcome.
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Aberdeen vs Raith Rovers Predictions and Best Bets
Aberdeen vs Raith Rovers — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below is informational. Any probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds (where available). Prices can change. 18+ GambleAware.
Aberdeen are listed as favorites to progress, though their current seven-game winless streak remains a factor in the overall balance.
Low-scoring outcomes feature prominently in the pricing, reflecting both sides’ recent difficulties in front of goal.
Implied probabilities for the total goal markets suggest a leaning toward a game with 2 or 3 total goals.
- Aberdeen’s Slump is Loud: The Dons are winless in seven across all competitions, including four straight defeats, and they’ve scored 20 goals in 22 Premiership matches.
- Raith’s Away Pattern: Raith Rovers haven’t won any of their last six away matches, drawing four of them — a habit that can drag a cup tie into nervy territory.
- Chance Quality vs Chaos Risk: Aberdeen average 12.3 shots per game in the Premiership but sit at 47.3% possession, while Raith’s dangerous attacks average 51.48 per match — this can get stretched quickly.
Scoring Reliability: Goals Scored per Match
A comparison of the offensive production levels seen during the current domestic league campaigns.
The Dons have struggled for efficiency, managing 20 goals in 22 Premiership outings despite a high shot volume.
Raith maintain a higher scoring average in their respective division, supported by an average of 51.48 dangerous attacks per match.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded per Match
Visualizing the rate at which each side has allowed goals throughout their recent fixtures.
The Dons have leaked goals at a steady rate, contributing to their current seven-game winless run.
Raith’s defensive structure has held firm on the road, where they have recorded four 0-0 draws in their last six away games.
Pittodrie at 14:30 isn’t the place you want to arrive searching for confidence — but that’s exactly where Aberdeen are. Seven games without a win, four defeats on the spin, and a season that’s lurched from promise to problems has left this Scottish FA Cup fourth-round tie feeling bigger than it should.
There’s still a cup spark in the air. Aberdeen lifted the trophy last season after a dramatic final that went all the way to penalties, and a return to this competition is the cleanest chance to reset the mood under interim boss Peter Leven. Raith Rovers, led by Dougie Imrie, don’t arrive in full flow either — only one win in five — but their recent away draw habit screams “keep it tight, keep it awkward, hang around”.
Team News & Lineups
Aberdeen (Manager: Peter Leven)
- Injuries/Suspensions: None listed.
- Probable XI: Mitov; Jensen, Milne, Knoester, Gyamfi; Armstrong, Polvara, Lobban, Bilalovic, Karlsson; Nisbet
- What it means: Aberdeen’s XI leans into runners and through balls, with Stuart Armstrong as a key connector and Jesper Karlsson offering a direct threat from wide areas. The big issue is end product — this season’s Premiership numbers point to a side that can get up the pitch without finishing the job.
Raith Rovers (Manager: Dougie Imrie)
- Injuries/Suspensions: None listed.
- Probable XI: Rae; Rowe, O’Connor, Hanlon, Wilson; Brown, Doherty; McMullan, Easton, Winter; Hamilton
- What it means: Raith look built to stay compact then counter into the spaces Aberdeen can leave when they commit bodies forward. With Dylan Easton (8 Championship goals) in the attacking mix, they’ve got a player capable of turning one decent spell into real danger.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Aberdeen | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (last 6) | D1 L5 | W2 D2 L2 |
| Goals per game (overall) | 0.88 (28 in 32) | 1.48 (43 in 29) |
| Goals conceded per game (overall) | 1.50 (48 in 32) | 1.17 (34 in 29) |
| Shots per game | 10.91 | 9.45 |
| Possession | 46% | 51% |
| Corners per game | 4.44 | 5.62 |
| Yellow cards per game | 2.28 | 1.79 |
Aberdeen’s numbers paint a team that shoots a fair amount but doesn’t dominate the ball, and it’s been leaking goals at a worrying rate. Raith concede less per game and win more corners, which hints at longer spells in the right areas than you’d expect for a Championship side travelling to a Premiership ground.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Aberdeen: direct running, through balls, and a need for composure
Aberdeen’s strengths point to a clear plan: counter attacks, through balls, and long-shot opportunities. That can sound odd for a home cup tie, but it fits a side comfortable springing quickly once the first pass is found. With Armstrong (3 assists) and Karlsson (5 goals) in the likely XI, the route is obvious: quick vertical play into the channels, then bodies arriving around Nisbet.
The snag is also obvious. Aberdeen are marked down for finishing scoring chances and for individual errors — and that’s a brutal mix in a one-off tie. If Aberdeen start fast but don’t score, anxiety creeps in. And when anxiety creeps in, those rushed passes into midfield and sloppy clearances invite exactly the sort of moments Raith want.
Raith: keep it tight, win territory, then make the match messy
Raith’s recent away run is full of scorelines that grind: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0 appears repeatedly in their away sequence, and they’ve drawn four of the last six on the road. That’s not glamour — it’s survival skills. They’ll want Aberdeen’s tempo to drop, the crowd to get edgy, and the game to become a series of set pieces and second balls.
When Raith do break, it’s about getting runners close to Easton and Hamilton, and leaning into the moments Aberdeen struggle with most: defending transitions and dealing with pressure around the box. Raith’s dangerous attacks average 51.48 per match, and that suggests they can get into threatening areas even without dominating possession.
The key battleground: Aberdeen’s left-side intent vs Raith’s discipline
Aberdeen’s style leans into attacking down the left and playing an aggressive game. That aggression can be a weapon, but it also ties into a weakness: avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. Give Raith cheap free-kicks and corners and you hand them oxygen — and they won’t feel rushed.
Key Moments to Watch
- Aberdeen’s first 20 minutes: The Dons need purpose early. If the tempo is flat, Raith’s away rhythm kicks in and the tie turns sticky.
- Set pieces and second balls: Aberdeen are labelled very weak defending set pieces. Raith won’t ignore that, especially with corner numbers on their side.
- Discipline in the danger zones: Aberdeen average 2.28 yellows per game. If that turns into needless fouls near the box, pressure spikes fast.
- Who lands the first punch: Aberdeen’s average first goal time is 66′. If it’s another late chase, you’re inviting chaos.
What could go wrong?
For Aberdeen, it’s the same trap that’s fed the winless run: plenty of effort, not enough calm, and one mistake that changes the tone. For Raith, it’s sitting too deep for too long — because if Aberdeen finally find a clean final ball and Karlsson or Nisbet get a clear sight of goal, that’s when “keeping it tight” suddenly becomes “hanging on”.
Best Bet for Aberdeen vs Raith Rovers
Can Aberdeen’s Cup Pedigree Overcome a Stubborn Defensive Wall?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring Form | Aberdeen 0.88 GPG; Raith 1.48 | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Away Trends | Raith: 4 of last 6 away were 0-0 | BTTS – No |
| Efficiency | Dons 12.3 shots; 47.3% possession | Aberdeen Win |
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Aberdeen to Win and Under 2.5 Total Goals
Aberdeen enter this Scottish Cup tie as the defending champions, but their current form is a shadow of that title-winning campaign. They are winless in seven matches across all competitions, a slump characterized by a severe lack of clinical finishing. Despite averaging over 12 shots per game, they are scoring at a rate of just 0.88 goals per match. This lack of productivity suggests a high-scoring blowout is unlikely, even against lower-league opposition.
Raith Rovers are masters of the stalemate on their travels. Their recent away record is defined by a sequence of 0-0 draws, highlighting a tactical setup designed to frustrate and negate the opposition. With four draws in their last six away games, they will undoubtedly sit deep at Pittodrie, aiming to force the match into a tactical grind rather than an open contest.
The tactical matchup favors a low-scoring home win. Aberdeen possess the individual quality in Jesper Karlsson and Kevin Nisbet to eventually break the deadlock, but their average first-goal time of 66 minutes points toward a long afternoon of patient probing. Raith’s defensive discipline, conceding only 1.17 goals per game, will make the Dons work for every opening.
The combination of Aberdeen’s desperation for a result and Raith’s “keep it tight” away philosophy points toward a narrow victory. Expect Aberdeen to dominate territory but struggle to pull away, resulting in a professional performance that prioritizes progress over flair.
What could go wrong? The primary risk is Aberdeen’s defensive fragility and tendency for individual errors. They concede 1.50 goals per game, and if they allow Dylan Easton or Lewis Hamilton space on the counter-attack, Raith could snatch a goal that forces Aberdeen to chase the game, potentially opening the match up and exceeding the 2.5 goal threshold.
Correct Score Lean
Aberdeen 1-0 Raith Rovers This scoreline aligns with Raith’s recent away patterns and Aberdeen’s goal-scoring struggles. Raith have made a habit of 0-0 results on the road, while Aberdeen are currently averaging less than one goal per game. Given the Dons’ superior individual quality, they are likely to find the one moment of magic required—potentially late in the second half—to secure their place in the next round without the game becoming high-scoring.
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