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Can the Dons find their cup magic once again to stop a revitalised Motherwell from ending their title defence? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Motherwell enter this fixture in superior form, winning five of their last six matches. They boast a much tighter defence, conceding just 0.75 goals per game compared to Aberdeen’s 1.51. With the Dons struggling through a run of seven losses in ten games, Motherwell look revitalised and ready.
Read Rationale ▾
Motherwell have won 1-0 twice in their recent fixtures, including their last cup round. Aberdeen have shown a lack of scoring threat lately, failing to score in 49% of matches. Motherwell’s strong set-piece defending and Aberdeen’s defensive errors favour a narrow victory for the clinical visitors.
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Pittodrie Stadium prepares for a Saturday night under the lights as Scottish FA Cup holders Aberdeen look to keep their title defence alive.
Aberdeen vs Motherwell — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Aberdeen’s recent run of seven losses in ten games makes Motherwell slight favourites in this closely contested cup encounter.
Aberdeen’s last three FA Cup fixtures have produced under 2.5 goals, aligning with Motherwell’s strong recent defensive clean sheet record.
Motherwell arrive at Pittodrie with 0.75 goals conceded per game, suggesting a narrow 0-1 or a cagey 1-1 outcome.
Motherwell’s 56% average possession suggests they will look to dictate tempo through short passes and technical interplay.
Match Preview
- Cup Specialists: Aberdeen are undefeated in their last 6 Scottish FA Cup matches, a run that saw them lift the trophy last season.
- Goal Machines: Motherwell have scored at least one goal in 81% of their fixtures this season, highlighting their consistent threat in the final third.
- Defensive Fortress: Motherwell arrive at Pittodrie in imperious form, having secured 5 wins and 5 clean sheets in their last six matches across all competitions.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded per Game
The defensive numbers highlight a significant gap in recent performance, with one side proving much tougher to breach.
Defensive lapses have been costly, with the side struggling to prevent chance creation on a consistent basis.
A rigid defensive setup has limited opponents effectively, resulting in a significantly lower concession rate.
Match Control: Average Possession
Possession statistics provide an insight into which team is likely to dictate the tempo of the Saturday night clash.
Sitting deeper has allowed for break opportunities, but it often cedes initiative to the opposition.
Technical proficiency and short passing have enabled better match control and sustained pressure.
Pittodrie Stadium prepares for a Saturday night under the lights as Scottish FA Cup holders Aberdeen look to keep their title defence alive. It has been a turbulent season for the Dons; despite last year’s sensational final victory over Celtic, a disastrous winter run led to the dismissal of Jimmy Thelin. Now under Peter Leven, the hosts are desperate to move past a recent 3-0 thumping by Kilmarnock and find their cup magic once again.
They face a Motherwell side that is currently one of the most inform teams in the country. Jens Askou’s men are flying high in the Premiership and haven’t tasted defeat since early January. With a quarter-final spot at stake, the atmosphere in the Granite City will be electric as two top-flight rivals clash for a place in the next round.
Team News & Probable Lineups
- Aberdeen Absences: D. Geiger is expected to miss out due to illness.
- Motherwell Absences: No specific injuries or suspensions are currently listed for the visiting squad.
Probable Lineups:
- Aberdeen: Mitov; Devlin, Morrison, Milne, Frame; Bilalovic, Cameron, Shinnie, Armstrong, Keskinen; Lazetic
- Motherwell: Ward; Sparrow, O’Donnell, McGinn, Koutroumbis; Priestman, Fadinger; Said, Just, Slattery; Maswanhise
The Dons will rely on the experience of Graeme Shinnie in the engine room, while Motherwell’s threat remains centered around the prolific Tawanda Maswanhise.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Aberdeen | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 47% | 56% |
| Pass Accuracy % | 79% | 85% |
| Goals Scored (Avg) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals Conceded (Avg) | 1.51 | 0.75 SOLID |
The statistics paint a clear picture of Motherwell’s recent dominance. They keep the ball better, pass with more precision, and boast a defensive record that is twice as strong as Aberdeen’s this season.
Tactical Battle
Possession vs. Counter-Attack
Motherwell are a side built on possession football and short, sharp passing. They are very strong at creating chances through individual skill and through balls. Expect Callum Slattery and Lukas Fadinger to dictate the tempo from midfield, looking to feed the creative Elijah Just.
Aberdeen, conversely, are most dangerous on the counter-attack. They lack the ball-retention stats of the visitors, meaning they will likely sit deeper in their own half and look to use the pace of Topi Keskinen and Stuart Armstrong on the break.
The Width Factor
Motherwell focus heavily on attacking down the right, which could create a fascinating duel with Aberdeen’s Mitchel Frame. However, Aberdeen’s own strength lies in attacking down the left. This mismatch suggests the game could be won or lost in the wide areas, as both teams try to exploit the space left by marauding full-backs.
Aerial Vulnerability
Both sides share a significant weakness: aerial duels. Both Aberdeen and Motherwell are statistically very weak in the air. This could negate the traditional “route one” approach, forcing both teams to keep the ball on the pitch and rely on technical interplay rather than high crosses.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-Piece Chaos: Aberdeen are very weak at defending set-pieces and avoiding individual errors. Given Motherwell’s efficiency in front of goal, any cheap foul conceded by the Dons in dangerous areas could be fatal.
- Discipline and Nerves: With Aberdeen racking up 82 yellow cards this term, their aggressive style could lead to trouble. If Nicky Devlin or Graeme Shinnie get caught out early, it could force the Dons to play with a hand tied behind their back.
What Could Go Wrong?
Volatility stems from Aberdeen’s “very weak” rating in protecting a lead and avoiding errors. Even if the Dons strike first, their tendency to crumble under pressure suggests a Motherwell comeback is always on the cards. Conversely, Motherwell’s own weakness in stopping opponents from creating chances means a high-scoring shootout isn’t out of the question if both defences have an off-night.
📊 Market Explainer
To Qualify
The To Qualify market covers which side will progress to the next round of the Scottish Cup, regardless of how the victory is achieved. This includes potential extra time or penalty shootouts. It is a safer alternative to the 90-minute result, though it offers lower prices.
Correct Score
The Correct Score market requires predicting the exact final scoreline at the end of the initial 90 minutes plus injury time. It offers high prices due to the precision required. The trade-off is high volatility, as a single late goal can nullify the selection.
⚔️ Pick 1: Motherwell to Qualify
Motherwell enter this fifth-round tie as the revitalised force in Scottish football, having secured five wins from their last six matches. Their defensive record is particularly striking; they concede an average of just 0.75 goals per game, a figure half that of their opponents. This stability, coupled with 56% average ball possession, allows Jens Askou’s men to dictate proceedings and technical interplay through short passes.
Tactical Indicators
- Motherwell have secured 5 wins and 5 clean sheets in their last six matches.
- Aberdeen have suffered seven losses in their previous ten fixtures across all competitions.
- The visitors boast an 85% pass accuracy compared to 79% for the hosts.
Aberdeen’s title defence is currently weathered by individual errors and a lack of scoring threat. The Dons fail to hit the net in 49% of their matches and are very weak at protecting a lead. While the home crowd at Pittodrie will be expectant, the Dons’ aggression—noted by 82 yellow cards—could lead to dangerous fouls in areas where Motherwell are technically proficient. Given Motherwell’s ability to create chances through individual skill and through balls, they are well-equipped to navigate this fixture.
Risk Factor: Aberdeen are undefeated in their last six FA Cup games, suggesting they often find a way to perform in this specific competition despite league struggles.
🎯 Pick 2: Motherwell 1-0 Aberdeen
A narrow victory for the visitors is plausible given the current trajectory of both clubs. Motherwell have recently secured 1-0 wins against Ross County in the cup and Kilmarnock, showcasing an ability to grind out results while maintaining a clean sheet. Their strength in defending set pieces and technical control in midfield often forces matches into low-scoring, structured affairs. Aberdeen’s average of just 1.00 goal scored per game suggests they will struggle to breach a defence that has been breached just 0.75 times per match this season.
Aberdeen’s primary weaknesses—aerial duels and individual errors—often lead to the conceding of single, decisive goals. Motherwell are strong at finishing scoring chances and attacking down the right flank, areas where they can exploit the Dons’ defensive lapses. With the hosts frequently failing to hit the net, a single clinical finish from the likes of Tawanda Maswanhise may be all that is required to separate the sides at Pittodrie.
Risk Factor: Should Aberdeen manage to avoid the individual errors that have plagued their recent run, their counter-attacking pace could frustrate a 1-0 scoreline prediction.
❓ Interactive Q&A
⊕ What does ‘To Qualify’ mean in cup betting?
The ‘To Qualify’ market is a bet on which team will reach the next round, regardless of whether they win in 90 minutes, extra time, or penalties. It removes the risk of a draw in normal time causing the bet to fail.
⊕ Why is Motherwell’s possession percentage significant?
Motherwell average 56% possession, which suggests they will dictate the tempo through technical control and short passes. Higher possession typically leads to more sustained pressure on the opposition defence.
⊕ Is a Correct Score bet higher risk?
Yes, predicting an exact scoreline like 1-0 is difficult and carries more risk. While it offers higher rewards, any deviation from that exact number—even a late consolidation goal—results in a lost wager.
⊕ How does Aberdeen’s disciplinary record affect the game?
Aberdeen have received 82 yellow cards, indicating an aggressive style that can lead to fouls in dangerous areas. These set-piece opportunities are a strength for Motherwell, who defend them well and can exploit them offensively.
⊕ What is ‘technical interplay’ in football?
Technical interplay refers to the use of short, accurate passing and individual skill to move the ball through the opposition. Motherwell use this style to break down teams who sit in their own half.
⊕ Why do Aberdeen struggle to score in 49% of their games?
Aberdeen have struggled with clinical finishing and creating high-quality chances lately. This lack of scoring threat is a primary reason they have lost seven of their last ten fixtures.
⊕ Does home advantage help in cup ties?
Home advantage can be a factor, and Aberdeen are undefeated in their last six cup games. However, Motherwell’s superior form and defensive solidity often neutralise the atmospheric benefit for the hosts.
⊕ What is a ‘clinical’ finish?
A clinical finish is an efficient goal scored from a clear opportunity. Motherwell are noted for being strong at finishing scoring chances, meaning they are likely to take advantage if the Dons make a defensive error.
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