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Can Oliver Glasner’s side finally turn home frustration into a proper run or do Burnley drag it into a scrap? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Crystal Palace enter this fixture revitalised by a derby win over Brighton. Burnley sit 19th with 16 defeats and concede nearly two goals per game. Palace have won the last three meetings without conceding, and their superior shot volume should overwhelm a vulnerable Clarets defence at Selhurst Park.
Read Rationale ▾
Palace have a dominant record in this matchup, keeping three straight clean sheets. Burnley struggle to create away from home and possess a weak defensive structure. A 2-0 scoreline reflects Palace’s ability to control the match tempo while exploiting Burnley’s tendency to concede multiple goals in league play.
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Selhurst Park has been a tense place lately, but Crystal Palace bring a fresh edge into Wednesday night following their gritty 1-0 derby win at Brighton.
Crystal Palace vs Burnley — Market Snapshot
Swipe for key markets and probabilities based on Premier League form.
Crystal Palace enter as strong favourites given Burnley’s 16 league defeats and poor defensive record conceding 49 goals.
Burnley concede 1.89 goals per game, making the over 2.5 goals market a significant tactical consideration for Wednesday.
Palace have won the last three meetings without conceding, suggesting a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline is tactically plausible.
Crystal Palace have recorded 14 clean sheets compared to Burnley’s 3, highlighting a massive gap in defensive organisation.
Match Preview
Selhurst Park has been a tense place lately, but Crystal Palace bring a fresh edge into Wednesday night at 19:30. Oliver Glasner’s side finally snapped a long winless stretch with a gritty 1-0 derby win at Brighton, their first league victory in 10 matches. Now comes the real challenge: back it up.
Palace are 13th on 32 points, stuck in a strange pattern — they’ve found league wins away, but home confidence has been leaking since early November. Burnley arrive 19th on 15 points, chasing oxygen and carrying the weight of 16 league defeats. Palace have unfinished business at home; Burnley have survival in their sights. That’s a combustible mix.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
A comparison of offensive output shows Palace consistently creating more opportunities in front of goal.
Glasner’s side averages over three shots more per game than Burnley, indicating a greater threat level.
Burnley struggle to maintain possession and create sustained pressure on opposing goals.
Defensive Floor: Clean Sheet Comparison
The total number of shutouts reveals a significant disparity in defensive organisation this season.
With 14 shutouts, Palace demonstrate a structured approach that Burnley have failed to match.
Burnley have conceded 49 goals in the league, with only three clean sheets recorded so far.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Crystal Palace
- Out / doubts: Jean-Philippe Mateta (knee, out until 25/02/2026), Daichi Kamada (hamstring, out until 21/02/2026), Eddie Nketiah (thigh, out until 01/03/2026), C. Kporha (back, return date unknown).
- Probable XI: Henderson; Lerma, Lacroix, Richards; Munoz, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell; Sarr, Pino; Larsen
- Implication: With Mateta out (8 league goals), Palace lose a focal point. That puts extra pressure on Ismaïla Sarr and Yéremy Pino to turn ball wins into end product.
Burnley
- Out / doubts: Not listed.
- Probable XI: Dubravka; Walker, Humphreys, Esteve, Pires; Edwards, Mejbri, Luis, Ugochukwu, Anthony; Flemming
- Implication: Burnley’s shape can pack midfield and push wide runners on quickly, but they struggle badly with possession — if they can’t hold it, they’re defending waves.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 19th |
| Points | 32 | 15 |
| Goals scored (PL) | 26 | 25 |
| Goals conceded (PL) | 29 | 49 |
| Avg shots per game | 12.89 | 9.61 |
| Possession | 47% | 43% |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 14 | 3 |
Tactical Analysis
Palace’s Route: Central Punches and Quick Transitions
Palace aren’t built to suffocate teams with possession. They attack through the middle, hit long balls, and try to play through balls early. That fits a match where Burnley’s defensive weaknesses show up in bright lights: they struggle against through balls, skillful players, and long shots.
The engine room matters. Adam Wharton and Will Hughes have to set the tempo, while Daniel Muñoz provides thrust from the right — he’s been a standout with 3 goals and 2 assists in the league. Without Mateta, Palace need movement rather than a fixed target: Jørgen Strand Larsen starts up top, and the wide pair behind him must attack the spaces Burnley leave when they shuffle across.
Burnley’s Route: Width and Set-Piece Efficiency
Burnley’s style points to a pragmatic plan: long balls, width, and attacking down the right. They can protect a lead and have strength from direct free kicks, so any territory near the box becomes valuable. But their biggest battle is simply keeping the game stable. They’re very weak at keeping possession, and that invites repeat pressure — exactly what you don’t want away at Selhurst.
If Burnley are going to hurt Palace, the transitions have to be sharp. Jaidon Anthony (5 league goals) offers a direct outlet, and Zian Flemming (5 league goals) is the finisher in this probable XI. Expect Burnley to try and pull Palace’s back three into uncomfortable wide defending and then attack second balls.
Key Stats to Watch
- Clean-sheet dominance in this matchup: Crystal Palace have won the last three Premier League meetings with Burnley without conceding, including a 1-0 away win in December.
- Home form that needs fixing: Palace have gone seven home league matches without a win since beating Brentford 2-0, with four defeats and three draws in that spell.
- Burnley’s uphill climb: Burnley sit 19th on 15 points with 16 defeats in 25 league games and concede 1.89 goals per game across all competitions.
Match Conclusion
Palace can win the ball and create chances, but their finishing has been a problem — and with Mateta out, that edge becomes even sharper. Burnley don’t need to control the match to make it ugly; if they keep it tight, steal territory, and turn set pieces into pressure, Selhurst could slip back into a nervy pattern. And if Palace chase too hard, those transitions into Anthony and Flemming can bite.
📊 Betting Market Analysis
Match Result (1X2)
The 1X2 market is the most traditional form of betting on football, where you select either a Home Win (1), a Draw (X), or an Away Win (2). It covers the result at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time.
Pros: Straightforward and easy to understand.
Cons: Limited protection against late equalisers in a tight game.
Correct Score
This market requires you to predict the exact final scoreline of the match. Due to the high number of possible outcomes, the odds are typically much higher than match result markets.
Pros: Significant returns for small stakes.
Cons: High volatility; one late goal can ruin the entire selection.
🎯 Match Rationale: Crystal Palace vs Burnley
Pick 1: Crystal Palace to Win
Crystal Palace head into this midweek fixture with renewed confidence following their derby success against Brighton. Oliver Glasner’s side has shown a distinct ability to create goal-scoring opportunities, averaging 12.89 shots per match compared to Burnley’s 9.61. While home form at Selhurst Park has been inconsistent, the statistical gulf between these two sides is significant. Burnley arrive in South London sitting 19th in the table with 16 league defeats and a defensive record that has seen them concede 49 goals in the Premier League.
Tactical Indicators:
- Palace have won the last three meetings without conceding a single goal.
- Burnley struggle with possession, averaging only 43% compared to Palace’s 47%.
- Burnley concede 1.89 goals per game across all competitions this season.
Risk Factor: Crystal Palace have not won a home league match since beating Brentford 2-0 in December.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Averaging 12.89 shots per game. Able to exploit Burnley’s weakness against skillful runners and through balls.
Conceded 49 goals this season. Burnley struggle to retain possession, inviting constant defensive pressure.
Pick 2: Crystal Palace 2-0 Burnley
A 2-0 victory for the home side aligns with the historical and statistical trends of this matchup. Crystal Palace have demonstrated superior defensive rigidity, keeping 14 clean sheets this season compared to Burnley’s 3. In the last three Premier League meetings, Palace have not conceded a single goal to the Clarets. Burnley’s offensive metrics are concerning, with only 9.61 shots per game and a reliance on set-pieces that Palace’s back three are well-equipped to handle. Even without the goal-scoring threat of Mateta, Palace’s ability to create volume through Muñoz and Sarr should be enough to secure a multi-goal margin.
Risk Factor: Burnley are strong from direct free kicks, which could disrupt a Palace clean sheet.
⚔️ Frequently Asked Questions
⊕What does a Match Result bet mean?
A Match Result bet involves picking which team will win or if the game will end in a draw. It is the most common way to back Crystal Palace to win their game against Burnley.
⊕Is Jørgen Strand Larsen expected to play?
Jørgen Strand Larsen is in the probable XI for Crystal Palace. He is expected to lead the line as the central forward in the absence of Jean-Philippe Mateta.
⊕What is the head-to-head record between these teams?
Crystal Palace have won the last three Premier League meetings without conceding a goal. This includes a 1-0 away victory at Turf Moor earlier this season.
⊕Why is Burnley’s league position relevant?
Burnley sit 19th with only 15 points, highlighting their struggle for survival. Their 16 defeats suggest a high level of vulnerability against mid-table sides like Palace.
⊕Can Burnley score from set pieces?
Burnley are noted for their strength from direct free kicks. Since Palace struggle to avoid fouls in dangerous areas, this remains Burnley’s most likely route to goal.
⊕What is a Correct Score bet?
A Correct Score bet is a wager on the exact final scoreline. A 2-0 prediction for Palace implies they will score twice and Burnley will fail to score.
⊕Who are the key players for Burnley?
Jaidon Anthony and Zian Flemming are Burnley’s main threats, both having scored 5 league goals. They provide the transition pace the Clarets rely on.
⊕How does Palace’s shot volume affect the game?
Palace average 12.89 shots per match, which allows them to test the goalkeeper frequently. This high volume often leads to defensive errors from teams like Burnley.
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Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT | Editorial Policy
