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Can Porto’s central control and set-piece threat break down AVS’ long-ball resistance at the Dragão? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Porto is the most dominant force in the league, scoring 33 goals and conceding only four. They face an AVS side that is currently bottom of the table and has the league's worst defensive record, having conceded 39 goals. Porto’s style of high possession and central attacking will likely overwhelm an AVS defense that struggles with through balls and set pieces. Following AVS's recent 6-0 loss to Sporting CP, a comfortable Porto victory by three or more goals is a logical extension of the current form and statistical gap between the teams.
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Porto's defense has been nearly impenetrable, allowing just four goals all season, while AVS has the least productive attack in the league. AVS has shown a vulnerability to heavy defeats against top-tier opposition, and Porto’s average of 14.8 shots per game suggests they will have ample opportunity to test a leaky defense. A 4-0 scoreline aligns with the 33-goal haul Porto has accumulated and the fact that AVS has already conceded 39 times in 15 matches, suggesting a one-sided affair at the Dragão.
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Porto vs AVS Predictions and Best Bets
Porto vs AVS — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
The league leaders are overwhelming favourites at the Dragão, with pricing reflecting the massive gap in league standing.
Low-odds scoring options for Porto highlight the expectation of a multi-goal victory for the home side.
Heavy expectations for goals, specifically from the hosts, given AVS’s defensive struggles this month.
- Title pace at both ends: Porto have 33 goals scored and only 4 conceded in 15 Liga Portugal matches, showing a side that attacks relentlessly while giving opponents very little back.
- Bottom-side reality check: AVS have 4 points from 15 Liga Portugal games with 11 goals scored and 39 conceded, a gap that frames how hard their night at the Dragão could be.
- Volume and control difference: Porto average 55.4% possession, 85.5% pass accuracy and 14.8 shots per league match, while AVS average 42.8% possession, 76.8% passing and 10.5 shots.
Defensive Performance: Goals Conceded
A comparison of goals allowed across 15 league matches highlights the disparity in defensive stability.
The league leaders have maintained a nearly impenetrable backline throughout the first half of the season.
AVS have struggled significantly to contain opposition attacks, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
Porto’s ability to maintain pressure is evidenced by their high shooting volume compared to the visitors.
Consistent entries into the final third allow Porto to test keepers frequently throughout the 90 minutes.
AVS manage fewer attempts on goal, making efficiency a crucial but difficult factor in their survival bid.
First against worst is a headline in itself, but the timing adds the extra edge: Porto and AVS close out Primeira Liga’s 2025 calendar at the Estádio do Dragão on Monday night. Porto arrive as leaders, five points clear at the summit after 15 league games, while AVS sit bottom with four points from the same number of matches.
There’s a bit of pressure baked into the fixture even before the whistle. Sporting Lisbon, in second, play Rio Ave a day earlier, so Porto could be stepping out knowing exactly what the gap looks like by kick-off. That doesn’t change Porto’s job, but it does change the feel: either you protect what you’ve built, or you respond to movement beneath you.
On the pitch, the contrast is stark. Porto have scored 33 league goals and conceded only four. AVS have scored 11 and conceded 39. That’s not a small stylistic difference; it’s two different realities. Porto’s run of results in December has also had a rhythm to it: a setback against Vitória, then a string of wins across league and cup competitions, capped by a 3-0 away league win at Alverca. AVS’ December has been tougher, including a 6-0 defeat at Sporting CP, but also a 2-2 draw with Nacional and a cup win away at Vitória.
Still, the match-up reads like a classic question of territory and survival. Porto’s football is built to dominate the middle, keep the ball, and create chances with quality and patience. AVS, by their own profile, are more likely to go long, cross often, and rotate their first eleven while trying to manufacture moments.
It’s a final match of the year with a simple theme: can the side at the bottom make it uncomfortable, or does the side at the top turn control into something ruthless?
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Porto’s possible starting XI is listed as: Diogo Costa; Alberto Costa, Jan Bednarek, Jakub Kiwior, Francisco Moura; Victor Froholdt, Alan Varela, Rodrigo Mora; Pepê, Samu Aghehowa, William Gomes.
That fits neatly with Porto’s listed 4-3-3 formation summary in the league. The back four suggests a stable base: Bednarek and Kiwior as the central pairing, with Alberto Costa and Moura as the full-backs. In midfield, Varela looks like the pivot who keeps the structure, Froholdt the runner and link, and Mora the more advanced connector. The front line is where Porto can slice games open: Pepê and Gomes around Samu Aghehowa, who has nine league goals and averages 3.1 shots per game.
There’s also an injury and suspension note: Luuk de Jong is listed with a knee injury, Gabri Veiga Novas with an ankle injury, and Nehuén Pérez with an Achilles tendon rupture until 01.04.2026. De Jong and Pérez appear in the wider squad list, while Veiga is also listed in the league squad stats. None are in the possible XI.
AVS’ possible starting XI is: Gonçalves; Spencer, Devenish, Santos, Paulo Vitor, Kiki; Perea, Pedro Lima, Grau, Akinsola; Tomané.
That hints at a shape with a heavier defensive line than Porto’s, with multiple defenders named across the back and Jaume Grau anchoring the midfield area. Out wide, Tunde Akinsola and Óscar Perea bring attacking presence, while Tomané is the reference point up front. It fits AVS’ stated approach: long balls, plenty of crosses, width, and lots of shots.
Set against Porto’s tendencies — attacking through the middle, short passes, possession football — it looks like an evening where Porto try to pin AVS back and work angles between the lines, while AVS try to turn clearances into counters and crosses.
How the Match Could Be Played
This is the kind of fixture where Porto’s first task is simply to avoid making it messy. Their style is described as possession football with short passes and an emphasis on attacking through the middle. With Varela at the base and Kiwior’s passing security — he’s completing 90.6% of his passes in the league — Porto have the tools to keep the ball moving and force AVS to shuffle side to side.
That central focus also pokes directly at AVS’ worst habits. AVS are described as very weak at keeping possession of the ball, and weak at protecting the lead. Those two weaknesses often show up long before the scoreline does: you can’t keep it, you can’t breathe, you can’t get out. If Porto establish that squeeze early, the match becomes less about AVS building attacks and more about AVS trying to survive waves.
The key for Porto is what they do once they arrive around the box. Their strengths include creating scoring chances, individual skill, counter attacks, attacking set pieces, and finishing. That gives them multiple routes. They can work the ball patiently into central pockets for Mora or Froholdt to slide passes through. They can also win it back quickly and counter into a disorganised defensive line, where Pepê and Gomes can attack the gaps around Samu Aghehowa.
The Samu angle is obvious, but it matters tactically: he isn’t just a finisher; he’s a volume shooter too. When your striker is taking 3.1 shots per game, it changes the geometry of the final third. Midfielders and wide players can play for second balls, rebounds, and loose clearances rather than forcing perfection with every final pass.
AVS, meanwhile, have a clear “make it a different game” pathway. They’re strong at creating chances using through balls, and their style is long balls plus frequent crosses. That points towards quick, vertical attacks rather than long spells of possession. The likely targets are the channels and the areas around Porto’s full-backs, because AVS are described as playing with width and attempting crosses often. If Perea and Akinsola can receive early and turn, the aim would be simple: get the ball into the box, make Tomané compete, and hope Porto’s control gets interrupted by a sequence of duels.
That duel theme also connects to Porto’s strengths. Porto are strong in aerial duels and defending set pieces, and Bednarek in particular averages 3.1 aerials won per game. So AVS may need their crosses and long balls to be clever — low, early, or aimed to create second balls rather than straight contests.
There’s another specific tactical friction point: through balls. Porto are comfortable attempting through balls as part of their style, and AVS are weak defending against through ball attacks. If Porto’s midfield three can tempt Grau and the deeper midfielders out of position, the lanes can open quickly for runs off the shoulder — particularly from Samu and the wide forwards tucking in.
And then set pieces. Porto’s strengths include attacking set pieces, while AVS are weak defending set pieces and weak avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. That combination can become a slow drip of danger: even if AVS defend open play bravely, a couple of clumsy fouls and a few corners can keep dragging them back into a problem they don’t want to solve.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Porto’s league numbers explain why they’re top. They’ve scored 33 goals in 15 Liga Portugal matches and conceded only four, which isn’t just “good defending” — it suggests they give opponents very little sustained access to their goal. Their shot volume supports the control idea too: 14.8 shots per game in the league, alongside 55.4% possession and an 85.5% pass success rate. That mix usually means you’re spending a lot of time in the opposition half and generating repeat entries.
AVS’ numbers underline the challenge. They’ve scored 11 and conceded 39 in 15 league games, with 42.8% possession and a 76.8% pass success rate. They also average 10.5 shots per game, which is the interesting part: they do get attempts away, but their weaknesses include finishing scoring chances. That’s the difference between “having moments” and “turning moments into points”.
Individually, Porto’s creative supply is also visible. Alberto Costa has five assists in the league, Froholdt has three, and Veiga has four assists from his appearances. That matters because it suggests Porto can create chances from multiple zones — full-back service, midfield combinations, and the final-third playmakers.
At the top end, Samu’s nine goals is the clearest single figure in the match, but the supporting cast is real too: Borja Sainz has five league goals and William Gomes has four. Porto aren’t reliant on one route; they have enough scorers to punish an opponent who switches off for a moment.
On the AVS side, the top scorers list is modest — Perea and Nenê have two, while Spencer, Tomané and Barbosa have one each — which again points back to the finishing issue. If they are going to threaten, it may come from chance creation patterns rather than a single inevitable finisher.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The opening phase matters because it sets AVS’ emotional temperature. If Porto start with their usual control — short passes, central progression, and quick regains — AVS could find themselves defending for long stretches, which is exactly where their “very weak” ball retention can become a problem. The longer you defend, the harder it is to clear your head, let alone the ball.
Watch Porto’s midfield triangle. Varela as the organiser, Froholdt as the link, Mora as the connector: if they can receive cleanly between AVS’ midfield and defence, the match becomes about timing runs. That’s where through balls show up — and AVS’ difficulty defending them becomes a genuine tactical leak rather than a generic label.
Then there’s the wide-to-box route for AVS. Even if Porto dominate possession, AVS can still have a “one cross, one chance” moment if Perea or Akinsola gets space and Tomané turns a delivery into a scramble. Porto’s aerial strength suggests they can win plenty of first contacts, but second balls are where underdogs often live. If AVS can get Grau and Pedro Lima close enough to mop up loose clearances, they can at least make Porto reset repeatedly.
Set pieces are the other obvious swing factor. Porto are strong attacking set pieces; AVS are weak defending them and weak avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. In a match where Porto should have territory, that can mean a steady stream of corners and free-kicks. It only takes one well-worked delivery to change the mood.
What could go wrong with this read? Football has a habit of turning dominance into frustration if early chances don’t go in. AVS’ ability to create through-ball chances and to take a lot of shots hints that they can produce moments even when they’re second best for long spells. And a single lapse — a foul in a bad area, a misjudged clearance, a loose pass in the middle — can make the game feel very different for five chaotic minutes.
Best Bet for Porto vs AVS
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Porto -2 (Handicap Match Result)
Porto enters this final fixture of the year in a position of absolute dominance, sitting five points clear at the top of the table after 15 matches. Their season has been defined by a ruthless efficiency at both ends of the pitch, having scored 33 goals while conceding just four. This defensive record is particularly imposing when contrasted with AVS, who have struggled significantly in their first top-flight campaign. The visitors sit at the bottom of the league with only four points and a goal difference that highlights their struggles: 11 goals scored against 39 conceded.
Tactically, this is a clash of polar opposites. Porto employs a patient, high-possession style that prioritizes short passing and attacking through the middle. With a pass success rate of 85.5% and an average of 14.8 shots per game, they are expert at pinning opponents deep into their own territory. AVS, by contrast, are described as having very weak ball retention, which often leaves them defending for extended periods. When a team that struggles to keep the ball faces a side as disciplined as Porto, the pressure tends to be cumulative, leading to the kind of defensive lapses that have seen AVS concede an average of 2.6 goals per game.
The presence of Samu Aghehowa is a central factor in why a wide margin is expected. The striker has already netted nine league goals and maintains a high volume of 3.1 shots per game. Porto’s ability to create chances through individual skill and precise through balls directly targets AVS’s specific weakness in defending vertical attacks. Furthermore, Porto is strong at attacking set pieces, while AVS is noted for being weak at defending them and prone to committing fouls in dangerous areas.
Given that AVS has already suffered heavy defeats this month, including a 6-0 loss to Sporting CP, Porto has every incentive to mirror that ruthlessness. Porto has won their last five matches across all competitions, including a 3-0 league win over Alverca just days ago. With the league lead to protect and a massive gap in quality, the home side is well-positioned to cover a two-goal handicap.
What could go wrong
If Porto fails to find an early breakthrough, they could become overly patient or frustrated, allowing AVS to sit deep and focus entirely on survival. AVS does attempt a high volume of crosses and long balls, and if they manage to manufacture a goal against the run of play, it would require Porto to score four times to cover this specific handicap.
Correct score lean
Porto 4-0 AVS
Porto’s defensive solidity is almost unparalleled this season, having conceded only four goals in 15 league outings. AVS has failed to win a single away game and has struggled for goals, with their top scorers only having two apiece. Given that AVS recently conceded six against Sporting CP and three in their previous encounter with Porto, a 4-0 scoreline reflects the statistical reality of the league’s best defense facing its worst attack. Porto’s average of over two goals per game, combined with AVS’s tendency to collapse under sustained pressure, makes a high-scoring shutout the most logical outcome.
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