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Can Hull turn the MKM into a cup ambush — or will Rosenior’s Chelsea keep their grip and move on? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Chelsea’s superior quality and control are evident in their 59% possession and 88% pass accuracy. Having won the last eight meetings against Hull, the visitors possess the technical edge and shot volume to overcome Jakirović’s side, especially given Hull’s recent defensive struggles at home.
Read Rationale ▾
Chelsea’s defensive stability, yielding 12 clean sheets, matches well against a Hull attack likely missing key scorer Oliver McBurnie. A 2-0 scoreline reflects Chelsea’s scoring average of 2.0 goals per game while capitalising on Hull’s vulnerability to through balls and central patterns.
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Friday night at the MKM Stadium has that classic FA Cup tension: a playoff-chasing Championship side trying to flip history, against a heavyweight arriving with unfinished business of their own.
Hull City vs Chelsea — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Chelsea’s superior 88% pass accuracy and history of eight consecutive wins against Hull support their strong position in the market.
With Chelsea averaging 2.0 goals per game, the market leans towards a high-scoring encounter at the MKM Stadium.
Chelsea’s scoring average and 12 clean sheets make lower-score away wins the most mathematically plausible result.
Chelsea have secured 12 clean sheets compared to Hull’s 10, highlighting the visitors’ slightly more robust defensive structure.
Match Preview
Friday night at the MKM Stadium has that classic FA Cup tension: a playoff-chasing Championship side trying to flip history, against a heavyweight arriving with unfinished business of their own. Hull’s recent mood is mostly bright — four wins in the last six — but the last two home outings have taken the gloss off: 0-0 with Watford followed by a 3-2 defeat to Bristol City.
Chelsea land in East Yorkshire still feeling the sting of a 2-2 draw with Leeds United, and the subplot is unavoidable. Liam Rosenior returns to an old club with little time to reset, looking for a response and a cleaner performance. Hull, led by Sergej Jakirović, don’t need a perfect night — they need a loud one, a brave one, and a ruthless one.
Control Indicators: Average Possession
A snapshot of which side typically dictates the rhythm of the game through ball retention.
Chelsea focus on high-volume short passing to pin opponents back.
Hull rely on aggressive turnovers and direct play rather than keeping the ball.
Attacking Frequency: Shots per Game
Comparing the regularity with which each team tests the opposing goalkeeper.
The visitors create frequent scoring chances through central patterns and individual pace.
Hull’s direct approach results in fewer but often high-impact opportunities.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries / absences
- Hull City: E. Matazo (cruciate ligament), D. Gyabi (groin), M. Belloumi (torn thigh muscle, out until 15.03.2026), O. McBurnie (calf)
Managers
- Hull City: Sergej Jakirović
- Chelsea: Liam Rosenior
Probable lineups
Hull City (possible XI):
Pandur; McNair, Egan, Hughes; Coyle, Slater, Lundstram, Giles; Gelhardt; Joseph, McBurnie
Chelsea (possible XI):
Sanchez; Acheampong, Fofana, Badiashile, Hato; Caicedo, Santos; Neto, Estevao, Garnacho; Delap
What it means
- If Oliver McBurnie doesn’t make it, Hull lose a huge chunk of end product: 12 goals and 5 assists in the league — and a focal point for transitions.
- Chelsea’s XI screams control and punch: Moisés Caicedo to set the tempo, and pacey carriers like Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho to turn possession into breaks.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Hull City | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 6) | 4W-1D-1L | 4W-1D-1L |
| Goals per game | 1.61 (53 in 33) | 2.00 (80 in 40) |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 (46 in 33) | 1.25 (50 in 40) |
| Shots per game | 11.33 | 14.18 |
| Possession | 46% | 59% |
| Pass accuracy | 76% | 88% |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 12 |
| Corners per game | 4.58 | 5.65 |
The shape of this tie is clear: Chelsea bring more ball, more shots, and more control. Hull’s route is sharper and more direct — they need moments that bite, not long spells of sterile possession.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Hull’s direct punch vs Chelsea’s midfield control
Hull are built for fast, aggressive football. Long balls, width, and through balls — plus a serious counter-attacking threat. That’s not a coincidence; they’re very strong on the break and very strong at finishing chances, which is exactly how you turn a cup tie against a bigger side into a fistfight.
But Hull’s weaknesses carry a warning label. They struggle keeping possession, they’re weak against through balls, and they’re vulnerable on set pieces. That combination is dangerous against a Chelsea side that likes short passes, central attacks, and through-ball patterns — and also rate very highly for finishing and direct free kicks.
Where Hull can hurt them
Chelsea have a glaring soft spot: stopping opponents from creating chances is rated very weak, and they’re also weak defending set pieces. That’s Hull’s invitation. If Ryan Giles can deliver quality from wide areas and Hull can pin Chelsea’s full-backs, the MKM can start to feel tight.
Hull also rack up work defensively — 17.48 tackles per game — and they’re aggressive by design. That can disrupt Chelsea’s rhythm, force rushed passes, and create those “one turnover, one chance” moments the cup lives for.
Where Chelsea can take it away
Chelsea’s control numbers are huge: 59% possession, 88% pass accuracy, 14.18 shots per game, and 103.25 total attacks per game to Hull’s 91.03. If they settle early, Hull will spend long stretches in their own half — exactly the type of night that exposes Hull’s issue with protecting leads and stopping chance creation.
Chelsea’s best path is simple: move Hull side-to-side, punch through the middle when the gaps appear, and keep Hull’s counter-attacks boxed in before they can breathe.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces at both ends: Hull are weak defending them, Chelsea are weak defending them — one dead ball could tilt the whole mood.
- Discipline and fouls: Hull average 11.33 fouls per game, Chelsea 11.23 — with Chelsea also carrying 7 red cards across their matches. Keep an eye on flashpoints.
- Early control vs early chaos: Hull’s average first goal time is 35′, Chelsea’s is 42′ — if Hull land the first blow, this gets noisy fast.
- The counter-attack race: Hull’s counter is a core weapon, but Chelsea are also strong on the break — whichever side wins transitions wins oxygen.
Game-State Scenarios
Hull can do a lot right and still get punished if they keep giving the ball back cheaply — Chelsea’s control is built to squeeze you until you crack. Chelsea, meanwhile, can dominate the pitch but still get dragged into a scrap if they don’t defend second balls and set pieces cleanly. In the FA Cup, control is useful — but composure under pressure decides who actually survives it.
Quick Hits
- Bold Firepower Gap: Chelsea have scored 80 goals in 40 games (2.0 per game), while Hull have 53 in 33 (1.61 per game) — the visitors bring a sharper edge in the final third.
- Bold Possession Problem: Hull average 46% possession with 76% pass accuracy, but Chelsea run games at 59% possession and 88% pass accuracy — this could be a long night without the ball.
- Bold Rivalry Weight: Hull have not beaten Chelsea since 1988, and have lost the last eight meetings — including two domestic cup exits in 2018 and 2020.
Market Explainer: Understanding the Odds 📊
Match Result (1X2)
The standard market for football. You predict the final outcome after 90 minutes plus injury time. ‘1’ represents a Home win, ‘X’ is the Draw, and ‘2’ is the Away win. It is simple but offers no cover if your team draws.
Pros: High liquidity and clear results. Cons: High risk of loss on a draw.
Correct Score
Predict the exact final scoreline. Because it is highly specific, it offers much higher prices than match result markets. It requires precise game-state analysis to identify the most likely outcomes.
Trade-offs: High volatility for high reward. Small margins like a late goal can ruin the pick.
Pick 1: Chelsea to Win – Tactical Rationale 🎯
Chelsea’s technical superiority is the defining factor in this FA Cup tie. Liam Rosenior’s side controls matches through an 88% pass accuracy and a 59% possession average, a style that forces opponents into long periods of defensive work. Hull City, while aggressive with 17.48 tackles per game, struggle to maintain possession at 46% and have shown vulnerability at the MKM Stadium, recently losing to Bristol City and drawing with Watford. History also weighs heavily here; Hull have lost the last eight meetings with Chelsea, a sequence stretching back to 1988.
Tactical Indicators ⚔️
- Control Gap: Chelsea’s 88% pass accuracy allows them to dictate the game against Hull’s 76%.
- Shot Frequency: Chelsea average 14.18 shots per game compared to Hull’s 11.33.
- Rivalry Record: Chelsea have won the last eight matches against Hull, including two cup exits.
Risk Factor: Hull are very strong on the counter-attack and finish chances aggressively, meaning Chelsea must be flawless in transition defence.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Chelsea focus on central through balls, executing with high pass accuracy (88%).
Hull City struggle specifically against through-ball patterns and central attacks.
Pick 2: Chelsea 2-0 – Scoreline Rationale 🎯
Chelsea’s scoring average of 2.0 goals per game across 40 fixtures suggests they have the firepower to secure a multi-goal lead. Their defensive record is also robust, with 12 clean sheets and a low concession rate of 1.25 goals per game. Hull City may find attacking difficult if Oliver McBurnie is absent, as he provides a huge chunk of their end product (12 goals and 5 assists). Without their focal point, Hull’s direct play may struggle to pierce a Chelsea backline that prioritises central control.
Risk Factor: Chelsea are weak defending set pieces, which remains Hull’s best opportunity to disrupt a clean sheet scenario.
Expert Q&A: Match & Betting Insights ⊕
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Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT | Editorial Policy
