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Can Cambridge United’s home control and set-piece strength disrupt Birmingham City’s possession game in the FA Cup? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Cambridge United are unbeaten in their last six home matches, winning four and drawing two. They have maintained a stellar defensive record this season, keeping 13 clean sheets across all competitions and conceding less than a goal per game. Birmingham City, despite being in the Championship, have a very poor away record with five losses in their last six matches on the road. Their defensive average of 1.36 goals conceded per game suggests that the League Two side will have opportunities to score. Given these trends, the home side is well-placed to secure a result.
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Cambridge United are strong at attacking set pieces and efficient in transition, which matches up well against a Birmingham defense that has conceded 38 goals in 28 games. While Birmingham possess the individual quality to get on the scoresheet, their recent away form and defensive lapses suggest they will struggle to keep a clean sheet. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Cambridge’s home dominance and their ability to capitalize on the visitors' habit of making life difficult for themselves at the back, while still acknowledging the attacking threat that the visitors possess through Jay Stansfield.
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Cambridge United vs Birmingham City Predictions and Best Bets
Cambridge vs Birmingham — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below is informational. Any probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds.
Birmingham enter as favorites, but Cambridge’s strong home defensive record creates a competitive pricing spread for this cup tie.
Markets suggest a balanced outlook for both sides hitting the net, reflecting Cambridge’s defensive discipline at the Abbey.
- Cambridge are a home side with bite: four wins and two draws from their last six matches at the Abbey Stadium keeps belief high and makes early Birmingham pressure less intimidating.
- Birmingham carry a heavy away hangover: five defeats in their last six away matches in all leagues makes every defensive moment feel louder, especially when Cambridge break quickly into wide space.
- Cambridge defend first and live with it: 27 goals conceded across 33 matches, with 13 clean sheets, means they regularly keep games tight enough for set pieces and transitions to decide everything.
Defensive Profile: Clean Sheet Efficiency
Cambridge rely on organizational discipline, while Birmingham have found consistency harder to maintain away from home.
Conceding an average of just 0.82 goals per game, the hosts have established a sturdy defensive foundation.
The visitors have conceded 38 goals in 28 matches, averaging 1.36 per game this season.
Tactical Indicators: Control vs Directness
Pass accuracy and possession show two distinct styles of play entering this FA Cup fixture.
Averaging 55% possession, they look to impose rhythm through patient short-passing build-up.
With 49% possession, they prioritize rapid transition and width over sustained ball control.
Cambridge United host Birmingham City in the FA Cup on Saturday, January 10, 2026, with kick-off listed as 18:45 at the Abbey Stadium. It’s a classic third-round set-up: a confident home side leaning into the comfort of familiar surroundings, and a visiting Championship outfit arriving with enough quality to hurt you — plus enough recent wobble to keep things interesting.
Cambridge come into this with a clear identity under Neil Harris. His team play with discipline, stay organised, and look to turn defence into attack quickly. They also carry a proper cup-edge: Cambridge have already taken one win from two FA Cup matches this season, and at home they’re hard to shift, with four wins and two draws from their last six matches at the Abbey Stadium. That kind of steadiness gives a side belief — and in the FA Cup, belief is fuel.
Birmingham arrive with a more chaotic recent story. Their latest result was a 3-2 home win over Coventry City, a game that showed their attacking punch and their habit of making life difficult for themselves at the back. Across their last six matches in all competitions they’ve won once, drawn three, and lost two. Away from home, the recent run is even harsher: five defeats in their last six away matches in all leagues, with one draw. That’s a grim travel diary, but it also sets up a very specific question for this tie: can Birmingham impose their possession-heavy approach and aggressive intent, or do Cambridge drag them into a match of moments and margins?
There’s also a recent head-to-head needle. The last meeting ended 2-1 to Birmingham away at Cambridge United, and across the last five encounters Cambridge have won two, Birmingham three. Nothing comfortable, nothing lopsided — just a rivalry that keeps landing in the competitive zone.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Cambridge have one clear selection concern noted: Shayne Lavery is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Beyond that, the clearest tactical clue comes from their most-used League Two structure: a 4-2-3-1. With Jake Eastwood the regular starter in goal, Cambridge’s shape naturally builds from a solid spine. Michael Morrison and Kelland Watts stand out as the aerial muscle and calm organising presence — Morrison averages 5.4 aerial duels won per game, Watts 4.4 — which matters because Cambridge are very strong at defending set pieces and strong at attacking them.
The full-back slots in the formation summary show Liam Bennett on the right and Ben Purrington on the left. In front of them, Dominic Ball and Pelly Mpanzu have been used as the double pivot in that 4-2-3-1, offering structure and bite. Further forward, the listed line has James Brophy wide, Sullay Kaikai in the attacking band, and Louis Appéré leading it. That front four fits Cambridge’s broader habits: they attack down the right, play with width, and spend spells trying to control the game in the opposition’s half. They don’t do it by endlessly stroking the ball, though — Cambridge are weak at keeping possession, so their best work comes when their wide play turns into direct action.
Birmingham’s most-used shape is also a 4-2-3-1, and there’s a clear “first-choice” outline in their formation summary. James Beadle is listed in goal, with Tomoki Iwata and Alex Cochrane in the full-back roles, Christoph Klarer and Phil Neumann as the centre-back pairing, and Paik Seung-Ho plus Tommy Doyle as the midfield base.
In the attacking line, Patrick Roberts, Marvin Ducksch and Demarai Gray are set behind Jay Stansfield. It’s a forward unit with output and variety: Stansfield has eight league goals and three assists, Gray has five goals and four assists, Ducksch has five goals, and Roberts has four assists. Birmingham’s wider profile matches the names: they play possession football, use short passes, play with width, and they’re aggressive. They also take long shots — an important detail against a Cambridge side built to protect the box and defend dead balls.
How the Match Could Be Played
Because both sides lean into a 4-2-3-1, this tie is likely to feel like a battle of who wins the edges rather than who clogs the middle. Cambridge want width and right-sided thrust; Birmingham want width too, but with more patient possession and heavier ball circulation. That overlapping ambition sets up a game where full-backs and wide attackers carry the narrative.
Cambridge’s best moments are likely to come from two places. The first is set pieces. They are very strong at defending set pieces and strong at attacking them, and they have clear aerial dominance in key defenders. That combination means Cambridge can turn a scrappy spell into a clean chance with one delivery, and they can protect themselves from the kind of cheap goals that swing cup ties. The second is transition. Neil Harris leans on organisation and quick transitions, and Cambridge’s recent match outcomes show a side comfortable living off tight margins — they’ve kept clean sheets in their last two home league matches, both 2-0 wins, and across their last six matches overall they’re unbeaten with three wins and three draws.
Birmingham’s threat sits in their ability to put numbers and creativity into the final third even when the game is awkward. Their passing and possession profile is strong — 54.1% possession and 80.5% pass completion in the Championship — and that means they can settle the ball, force Cambridge to shuffle, then try to create the one moment that opens the game. If Birmingham control territory, the Cambridge double pivot will spend long spells screening and resetting, and the wide players will have to make a choice: stay high for the counter, or drop and make it a back six without the ball.
The friction point is what happens when Birmingham lose it. Birmingham have a stated weakness: defending against skilful players. Cambridge’s attack isn’t built around endless dribbling, but they do have wide players who can receive, turn, and carry play into space — and Cambridge’s right-sided emphasis means Birmingham’s left channel could be tested repeatedly. If Cambridge pin that flank with width, Birmingham’s back line has to defend bigger distances in transition, and that’s where cup ties slip into panic tackles and hurried clearances.
At the other end, Cambridge have their own soft spot: they are weak at defending against through ball attacks. Birmingham’s attacking midfield line is designed to play between the lines, and Stansfield provides a constant target for runs beyond. If Birmingham can drag Cambridge’s centre-backs into stepping out, that leaves lanes for straight passes into the space behind. Cambridge can protect themselves by keeping their line compact and refusing the temptation to chase the ball into midfield — but that means accepting periods where Birmingham dominate possession around the box.
This match also has a tempo question. Cambridge are described as non-aggressive, Birmingham as aggressive. That doesn’t mean Cambridge are passive; it means their game is more about structure and timing than relentless pressure. Birmingham will try to speed it up with forward passes, long shots, and wide combinations. Cambridge will try to slow Birmingham’s rhythm with organisation, then speed themselves up the moment the ball turns over. Two different types of control. Same objective.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Cambridge’s home platform is strong. In their last six home matches, they have four wins and two draws, and that solidity lines up with the bigger defensive picture: across 33 matches in all competitions, they have conceded 27 goals, an average of 0.82 per game, and they have 13 clean sheets. This means Cambridge don’t need a perfect attacking display to stay alive in the tie; they’re comfortable keeping games tight and letting the contest hinge on a few decisive moments.
Birmingham’s recent away run is brutal — five defeats in their last six away matches in all leagues — and the broader goals profile shows why they’ve been living dangerously. Across 28 matches, Birmingham have conceded 38 goals, an average of 1.36 per game. That number matters here because Cambridge’s attacking output isn’t enormous in volume — Cambridge average 10.8 shots per game in League Two — so Birmingham don’t need to hand them repeated looks. One sloppy phase, one badly defended delivery, one loose through ball, and the tie tilts.
When Birmingham have the ball, they play with more control than Cambridge. Birmingham average 441.04 passes per game with 81% accuracy and 55% possession, while Cambridge average 306.27 passes per game with 67% accuracy and 49% possession. This means Birmingham are likely to see more of the ball and spend longer in Cambridge’s half, but it also means Cambridge’s best chances may come when Birmingham are stretched and Cambridge can go direct rather than trying to match possession for possession.
In front of goal, Birmingham have more individual scoring weight in the listed squad numbers. Stansfield has eight league goals, Ducksch five, Gray five, and Paik Seung-Ho four. Cambridge’s League Two top scorers are clustered on three each — Brophy, Kaikai, Appéré, Mpanzu, and Ben Knight. That spread matters because Cambridge aren’t reliant on one finisher; they can score from different positions, which fits a team that leans into set pieces and wide play.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big swing factor is Birmingham’s control versus Cambridge’s transition. If Birmingham establish their short-passing rhythm early, Cambridge will spend long stretches defending shape and waiting for the right moment to jump. The moment Cambridge win the ball and break into space — especially down the right — is where Birmingham’s structure gets tested.
The second is set pieces at both ends. Cambridge are built to defend them and attack them, and their aerial numbers give them genuine authority in those moments. Birmingham can’t afford cheap fouls, cheap corners, or sloppy marking. In a cup tie like this, one dead-ball sequence can carry more weight than ten minutes of pretty build-up.
The third is the space behind Cambridge’s line. Cambridge are weak at defending against through ball attacks, and Birmingham’s attacking line is full of players who can exploit that if the timing is right. If Birmingham get runners beyond Stansfield and slide passes into the channel, Cambridge’s centre-backs will be forced into turning and sprinting towards their own goal — never a comfortable way to defend.
The fourth is Birmingham’s shot selection. Birmingham take long shots, and Cambridge have a defensive profile that encourages opponents into shooting from less comfortable zones. If Birmingham get frustrated and start forcing low-percentage efforts, Cambridge’s defensive rhythm improves. If Birmingham use long shots as a tool — a way to demand blocks, rebounds, and second balls — then Cambridge’s structure gets dragged into messy, chaotic phases.
What could go wrong with this read? A match like this can flip on one mistake, one deflection, or one moment of individual quality. Cambridge’s best work comes from discipline and timing; one lapse breaks the whole plan. Birmingham’s best work comes from sustained pressure; one sloppy turnover can turn their control into instant danger.
Best Bet for Cambridge United vs Birmingham City
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Cambridge United to win or draw (Double Chance)
The home side enters this FA Cup third-round tie with significant momentum and a level of defensive organization that makes them incredibly difficult to break down at the Abbey Stadium. In their last six home matches, they have secured four wins and two draws, demonstrating a level of comfort and authority in their own surroundings that serves as the foundation for their cup ambitions. This steadiness is further highlighted by their season-long defensive metrics; across 33 matches in all competitions, they have conceded only 27 goals—an average of 0.82 per game—and have recorded 13 clean sheets. Such defensive reliability means they do not need to dominate the ball or create high-volume scoring chances to remain competitive against higher-league opposition.
Conversely, Birmingham City arrive with a travel record that is legitimately concerning. They have lost five of their last six away matches in all leagues, struggling to translate their possession-heavy approach into results when away from St Andrew’s. While they maintain 54.1% possession and an 80.5% pass completion rate in the Championship, this control often proves brittle in transition. They have a known weakness in defending against skillful players and have conceded 38 goals in 28 matches this season, an average of 1.36 per game. This defensive vulnerability is particularly problematic against a side like Cambridge, who are strong at both attacking and defending set pieces.
The tactical matchup also favors a competitive home performance. Neil Harris has drilled his side into a compact 4-2-3-1 structure that prioritizes quick transitions and aerial dominance. With Michael Morrison and Kelland Watts winning 5.4 and 4.4 aerial duels per game respectively, Cambridge possess the physical tools to nullify Birmingham’s attacking sequences. While Birmingham will likely control the ball, their inability to consistently defend transitions and their historical struggle on the road this season suggest that Cambridge are well-positioned to avoid defeat and potentially force a replay or secure a famous victory.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is Birmingham’s individual attacking quality. With players like Jay Stansfield, who has eight league goals, and Demarai Gray, who has five, the visitors possess the clinical finishing ability to score from very few chances. If Birmingham exploit Cambridge’s weakness against through-ball attacks early in the match, the hosts may be forced to abandon their organized defensive shape, leaving them exposed to the Championship side’s superior technical ability in open space.
Correct score lean
2-1 to Cambridge United
While a draw is a strong possibility given the defensive records, Cambridge United’s prowess on set pieces and Birmingham’s defensive instability suggest the hosts can find a way to win. Birmingham have conceded 1.36 goals per game on average, and their away form is currently among the worst in their division. Cambridge’s focus on right-sided attacks will likely target Birmingham’s left channel, which has been a point of friction this season. Given that Cambridge have won four of their last six home games and Birmingham have lost five of their last six away, a narrow home victory is the logical outcome.
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